Reading about Beijing's objections to Pelosi's trip to Taiwan and remembering the time when I was Mexico's ambassador to China and had to deal with a similar issue but from the Chinese side. They were the ones sending their unannounced delegation. 1/ First some context. The current president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, lost the presidential election in 2006. Like you know who, despite every single electoral institution and court ruling against him, he never admitted he lost, and claimed the election was stolen. 2/

Principales razones que he escuchado de inversionistas extranjeros que causaron pérdida de confianza en México:

- Tren detenido en Michoacán
- Huelga Coca Cola Matamoros
- Cancelación gasoductos
- Abrazos no balazos
- Cancelación Constellation
- Falta de interlocución con GobMex - Cierres de manufactura sin explicación por COVID
- Cambio en reglas de juego
- “Consultas” populares
- Intolerancia a sorpresas en mañanera

La cancelación del NAICM y derroche en Pemex han asustado más a los inversionistas nacionales.

Nadie está planeando invertir en México.

El peor escenario para México debido a la inacción de AMLO:

Obviamente lo peor que nos puede pasar como país por la falta de acción de nuestro gobierno es que la epidemia corra por todo el país, saturando hospitales, matando a gente. Esto es evitable y, por ende, lamentable 1/5 Pero también me preocupa que el mundo sabe que AMLO está siendo omiso. Y esto nos puede llevar a un largo período de aislamiento a los mexicanos. El mundo nos va a cerrar sus puertas. A como vamos, todo México se convertirá en "zona caliente". No será focalizado. 2/5

When H1N1 broke out in Mexico, China initially responded in a very generous way. They sent two 747s packed with materials to help contain the outbreak. Immediately thereafter, they started rounding up every Mexican in China and refusing to take our calls at the Foreign Ministry. I was summoned to MOFCOM for a meeting with a vice minister, no idea what it was about. He opened by asking what México needed to help contain the outbreak. I had no idea. I was not prepared for that question. He volunteered that they’d be sending the two planes.

I wouldn't put it past the US government to be behind the China hardware hacking story, but even if it was, the blow may be devastating. The timing is too convenient. 1) China marketing its 5G technology around the world (its technology will be even more suspicious now). 2) Launching a humongous effort to develop an indigenous microchip industry (which faces many hurdles, money, lag vs competitors, Moore's law, but, perhaps most importantly, markets for its products). Markets for Chinese microchips will dry up.

This. Is. Huge. There are many things that come to mind after reading this article. First, it puts a nail in the coffin of China’s aspirations to develop a microchip industry. There will be no market for them, and China’s is not big enough. bloomberg.com/news/features/… It gives the US the upper hand in convincing allies, and non-allies, around the world to be weary of Huawei and ZTE. This comes at a key moment, when countries are deciding how to upgrade to 5G. This may be a lethal blow for Huawei. No one will trust them.

Has someone finally convinced Trump that it would be devastating for US economy to exit NAFTA and that’s why he’s reconsidering TPP? The only thing worse for US than exiting NAFTA would be to maintain treaty and not join TPP. If US remains in NAFTA but NOT in TPP, there would be a huge incentive for US manufacturers to relocate to Mexico or Canada as their products would be able to access, duty free, the NAFTA market and the TPP countries.