Here is an interesting case study of why South Africa's state is struggling to overcome the energy crisis around Eskom, and in particular, to procure new energy *even from fossil fuels* - not just renewables. Based on the reasons for a regulatory decision published today. 1/ (Which is here: nersa.org.za/wp-content/upl…) 1.5/

In the FT office the other day I found this, which was published one million years ago in South Africa (late 2000, actually). Needless to say… it is also a symphony of dramatic irony. The book ends by saying the Eskom of more than 20 years ago now will find coal and nuclear increasingly giving way to renewables. It adds later on that ‘big is beautiful’ won’t work for Eskom any more. Two decades on… SA’s power crisis is still fixated on ageing coal plants.

This first report of the South African state capture inquiry (just out) runs to 874 pages... "From Function to Dysfunction" - the 450 or so pages on South African Airways look like a corker already.

"The early identification of this variant is a reflection of the excellent work of our scientists" - Cyril Ramaphosa begins his latest national address to South Africans, on the Omicron variant... South African scientists are "world renowned and deeply respected," Ramaphosa adds. What we know about Omicorn so far also reflects their work, he says.

The UK will put on the red list the other half of southern Africa it forgot to add last time. So that’s Angola, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. Now that the band is back together so to speak, it's worth noting that, in a way, for these countries this isn't so much a new set of red list sanctions as the end of a brief reprieve from the old one - which was enforced over the beta variant.

I had a sinking feeling all day that South Africa would once again be punished with extreme prejudice for its early surveillance of variants. It looks like that’s about to happen. The UK will nuke travel from Southern Africa tomorrow, it seems - six African countries, which are no doubt South Africa and its nearest neighbours, will be red-listed, according to the UK health minister. The WHO hasn’t met to decide whether the new variant is of concern yet.

South Africa will receive over 12m vaccine doses (2m, March to June) from the African Union's recent deal to secure 270m doses, according to SA media. (Distribution will be based on population share.) businesslive.co.za/bd/economy/202… & news24.com/citypress/news… The apparent manufacturer breakdown for South Africa's share of the AU procurement is also somewhat telling for which vaccines Africa is particularly banking on:
- Pfizer 2.2m
- Oxford/AstraZeneca (SII) 4.5m
- Johnson & Johnson 5.4m

South Africa's 20m vaccine doses announced by Cyril Ramaphosa this week include SA's Covax and African Union allocations in addition to directs, he has just told local radio. (I think we had gathered this, but confirmed now I suppose.) He didn't break it down further. Ramaphosa also indicated that the suppliers to the AU vaccine initiative won't be limited to those announced so far - J&J, Serum Institute of India (Oxford/AstraZeneca), and Pfizer. "Moderna will also contribute a portion..."

"SA’s best hope of securing an early vaccine for health workers hangs in the balance after a decision by the Indian government to bar the export of the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine until it has inoculated hundreds of millions of its own citizens." businesslive.co.za/bd/national/20… Just to note that earlier today India's Serum Institute did pledge "global access" after the confusion about Indian export plans.

We should be getting more detail about South Africa’s vaccine access plans later. Big chance for SA to disclose the status of bilateral negotiations and logistics etc altogether, not in drib-drabs.

https://twitter.com/healthza/status/1345719918155751428

"We are at a very sensitive stage" with South Africa's bilateral negotiations for vaccines, Zweli Mkhize, the health minister, says during this briefing. Literally sensitive, it seems - there are non-disclosure agreements.

"The storm is upon us" and 25% of all Covid-19 deaths in South Africa have occurred in the last week, Ramaphosa says as he begins his latest national address. Ramaphosa: "The coronavirus storm is far fiercer" and more destructive than any South Africa known before, as the surges predicted by experts in different regions are now hitting.

Ramaphosa begins his latest national TV address to South Africans on the coronavirus by noting that there have now been more than 80,000 cases confirmed in the country. "The cost in human lives could have been far higher than that" without early action, he says. Ramaphosa talks about the doubling rates across the various stages of South Africa's epidemic. It has been about 12 days during the latest levels of South Africa's lockdown, he says, versus 2 or so days early on.

How bad are global Covid-19 testing material shortages? South Africa has had backlogs of about 101,000 recently (versus around 650,000 tests completed so far). Chart from the South African Department of Health. In South Africa, the health minister has said that the shortages mean that priority is being given to hospital patients and health workers for now versus tests drawn from community screening (the 'active' component of finding cases).

In a briefing South African ministers are fleshing out regulations for the move down to a ‘level 4’ (nearly as loose as the UK) phased lockdown this week. As trailed, there will indeed be a night-time curfew. For Britons who think they’ve been going stir crazy, South Africans will now be allowed out for exercise for the first time in lockdown. But only 6am-9am and close to home. The UK has got it well lah-di-dah.

South Africa's virus public communications have been good and prompt so far - until Cyril Ramaphosa got involved. He postponed, and is now nearly half an hour late for, a national TV address on Covid-19 measures. Coming up for an hour now. South African politicians are often incompetent at timekeeping but it's a public health crisis and people need to know what to do. Probably best to go back to a single point of communication after this.

I won the FT's 2018 charity stock-picking contest. I won it dirty. ft.com/content/5132f1… A very good result for Joseph Capital Opportunities LLP, which has promptly collapsed in a fiduciary scandal over its complete failure to manage frontier-market risk.

Riot police breaking up a Chamisa press conference “Everyone out, even journalists”. Welcome to Mnangagwa’s bright freedom-loving new Zimbabwe.

A liberal opponent of the premier within the ruling party stepped down as a legislator. He will retain editorial control of a mouthpiece. LOCAL COLOUR: A journalist association in the capital hailed the state supreme leader as a "beacon of stability". londonpressclub.co.uk/2017/04/27/que…