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Julian Hinz Profile picture
Julian Hinz
@julianhinz
Economist studying international economics—trade policy, sanctions, migration & applied econometrics. @unibielefeld and @kielinstitute.
Jan 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A lot has been said about the Greenland tariffs in the past couple of days. We've been looking at the broader picture: who actually pays the tariffs?

We analyzed 25 million shipments worth nearly $4 trillion.

The answer: Americans pay 96%. Foreign exporters absorb just 4%.

1/n Image The 2025 Trump tariffs triggered a $200 billion surge in US customs revenue.

Political rhetoric claims foreign countries "pay" these tariffs.

Our data says otherwise. 2/n Image
Apr 2, 2025 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: New "reciprocal" US tariffs are serious. We ran both status quo (tariffs until April 2 incl. retaliation) and newly announced reciprocal tariff regime through the KITE model. (Non-) spoiler: 🇺🇸 hits itself the hardest. NB: Short-run, extremely ad-hoc. 1/n Image Under current tariffs, 🇺🇸 real output drops -1.18%. Under the new plan? -1.92%. Global output falls almost 1% (-0.98%). Reciprocal tariffs amplify losses across the board, incl. 🇩🇪 Germany (-0.49%) and 🇫🇷 France (-0.18%). 2/n