Just A Neighsayer Profile picture
Feb 20 6 tweets 2 min read
I’m going to share a cautionary story of what happens when you don’t take the ongoing pandemic seriously. Come trot with me on the journey of a high profile, anti masker who has long C.
In early ‘22 this person was transparent about having memory loss issues after having C19. Image
Image
In an ‘23 interview at SXSW she
✅openly mocked masking
✅shared that she’s been infected multiple times
✅seemed most concerned about having cinema goers return to the theatre over public health
✅and most disturbingly said she would -refuse- to mask on the set of her next film
Jul 24, 2024 5 tweets 3 min read
I came across a rather chilling discussion amongst a group of actuary & insurance professionals chatting about recent “excess mortality” trends. Take the time to read or watch the full chat (& ignore the Dr. who blames 😷ing for immune problems).
Some take aways…
Life Insurance News A VIDEO RSS © May 7, 2024. I Video @ No comments • Order Prints Video: The 'excess mortality' phenomenon: What does the future hold? IN Excess
Look at these numbers for two years. But luckily in 2022, it declined. But you're still in this 10%, 12%, 11%, 14% in December 2022. These are big numbers, these are very stable. Recently, in 2023, it's been more like 6%. The data's not mature yet for the more recent months, but in January 2024, so far it's 6.2%. Just to complete the story, you look back at 2019, and these numbers were basically zero, somewhere above zero, somewhere below 2018's. : That doesn't mean nobody was dying. Josh Stirling: No. This is a derivative measure. This is the excess above the expected, but what it means is...
The group has trouble understanding that while c19 numbers have come down, excess mortality has not dropped as expected. In fact it’s remained steady in recent yrs. Some describe it as the “new normal”, and shockingly the mortality numbers are seen among younger populations.
The Society of Actuaries has been really on this in doing experience studies for both individual life insurance and group life insurance. Some of it was positing that oh, well, heart disease, maybe because COVID is causing some heart disease problems or they re not going to the doctor. We saw utilization go down quite a bit, health care utilization go down in 2020 and 2021, that people who should have weren't going to the doctor, or even older people who needed help to get to appointments; they lost their ride, perhaps. Those were some of the things they were positing, but now, as we're get...
Steve Cyboran: One thing that I'd just like to add to that is in past pandemics, you see a pull forward of mortality, and then you see a valley for the mortality that was pulled forward. That usually is the next year. We're four years on, and we haven't seen any kind of a valley, and when you see an average of a 6%, a 12% increase, there are some age groups that were still 20% last year, still 20% up. I think Mary Pat could speak to this better, but I think in particular last year that it was the younger ages, 15 to 45. Mary Pat could speak to what the real numbers are.