German defense minister: "The possibilities of the Bundeswehr are exhausted." zeit.de/politik/deutsc… Germany has an enormous production capacity but continues to think in terms of fiscal stability. Nothing should be simpler than providing Ukraine with existing armoured vehicles and replace those with new ones.

1/15 Some of the world’s largest countries (China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia) refuse to condemn Russia’s war. We tend to assume that outrage at Russia must be universal, but there are reasons why so many countries back Putin or at least hesitate to condemn him.🧵 2/15 Legacies of the Cold War make it very difficult to rally the world behind the ‘West’ to effectively isolate Russia. Speaking for Africa, Pierre Sané, formerly of Amnesty International, says ‘For five centuries, we have been pawns in the hands of the warring European states’.

1/14 There are several points worth stressing in last week’s important Politico article, which argued that the concerns of Poland and the Baltic States were too long ignored by ‘Western’ leaders. politico.eu/article/wester… 2/14 I am glad the article singles out German politicians and their disregard for the profound Russia-expertise of East Central Europeans.

1/11 As someone who has spent all his career studying the history of the ‘small’ states situated between Russia and Germany, I am very concerned about the framing of the Russian war against Ukraine as a conflict between Russia and NATO. 2/11 Of course, NATO should not forcibly expand, but it also hasn’t: Membership is sought through application. If we want to respect the agency of ‘small’ states, we need to respect their wish to join NATO. None of them were ‘seduced’ into joining NATO.