The World Bank just flagged major red lights for Safaricom’s Ethiopia venture

From unfair competition to mounting losses.

Here’s why the telco’s $1 billion bet is starting to look risky 🧵 1.Large Losses / Financial Sustainability

Safaricom Ethiopia posted USD 325 million losses in 2024.

Their revenue was only about USD 53.6 million in that period.

License fees are very heavy: license + mobile money cost over USD 1 billion over 15 years — which works out to ~USD 66.7 million per year.

Safaricom’s revenue doesn’t even cover that cost.

10 Key Things To Remember when investing in SACCOs:

1. You make money in a SACCO in two ways:

a) Rebates from deposits in your BOSA account
b) Dividends from your share capital.

Interest on deposits is on a pro-rata basis. 2. Should I focus more on increasing my share capital or on my savings in a SACCO.

It depends with your end goal.

Most people maximize on savings since that's what you can borrow against.

SACCOs can lend you money 3-5 times your savings.

However, most SACCOs tend to have higher returns for share capital than for deposits as you can see below.

In the beginning of September, we shared our stock recommendations for the month of September to our small community of investors.

Both for the NSE and global stocks

Note that the price targets is within a year.

Some of our great picks so far have included Home Africa, which was a momentum buy. Take profit price was achieved and partial profit taking recommended.
For global stocks, our area of focus from August was in the HealthCare Sector. This has been one of the worst performing sectors this year. With companies like $UNH $NVO $LLY Seeing huge drawdowns.

This presented great buy opportunities and we shared our recommendations on 13th August as below.

10 Key things to remember when investing in offshore stocks & ETFs as a Kenyan

1. Use a low cost broker. Anyone charging you more than 1% to invest in ETFs is stealing from you.

John C. Boggle invented passive investing to lower investing costs, not to make them higher. 2. Stick broad market ETFs and your portfolio will do well in the long run even if you don't know how to pick stocks.

The S&P 500 has returned 11% per annum since 1957

The Nasdaq 100 has averaged 16% per annum in a similar period.

Unless you are a short term trader, avoid leveraged ETFs, inverse ETFs and futures ETFs

One of the benefits employed chaps get from their employers is group life cover.

A benefit that would pay out to your beneficiaries/loved ones in case you died, got a critical illness or a permanent disability while still under employment.

A mistake employed folks usually make is forgetting that they will one day leave employment and they won't take the group life cover with them. A second mistake is not realizing that getting this benefit on an individual basis becomes more expensive with age.

One of the prudent ways you can prepare yourself to leave employment one day in the future is to detach from some of these employer benefits.

a) Get a personal life insurance cover.
b) Use your investment portfolio to plan your retirement route. Don't rely on employer sponsored pension.
c) Get a post retirement medical cover and start contributing early enough.

The best thing about these things is that it's cheaper and much easier if you start early on.

Never underestimate the importance of an emergency fund. It helps you:

1. Avoid taking emergency loans when emergencies arise.

2. Avoid selling your long term assets.

3. Meet your expenses in case you lost your job

4. Quit your toxic job and have time to look for another one

How do you build one and where you should you stack your emergency fund?👇👇 1/ An Emergency fund.

What is it?

This is a set amount of money that covers your daily expenses for a certain period of time.

It should cover your daily *normal* expenses for a period of 3-6 months.

Avoid these money mistakes:

1. Never save your emergency fund in a SACCO BOSA Account.

2. Never use your Money market fund for long term investing.

3. Never save money using your banks’ saving or fixed deposit account

4. Never use your Chama as your only savings or investment plan Here's the Breakdown:

1. Savings in your SACCO and your share capital in a SACCO are not easily accessible.

The best place to save for your emergency fund is in a Money Market Fund

2. Money Market Funds are best suited for short term preservation of cash.

Not for long term investing. They give a return that keeps up with the inflation rate and prevailing interest rates.

The best opportunities for wealth creation are in the stock market, Bonds, Real estate, and other assets.

Should you invest in the local stock market (Nairobi securities Exchange) or in offshore/global markets?

What are the differences, pros and cons of each?

What does it take to invest in each and what strategies should you employ?

Breakdown below👇👇 1/ How much do you need to get started investing?

For NSE, it depends with the stock you want to buy.

With the recent introduction of single shares trading, you can buy as low as one share of the company you want to invest in.
Hence you can start invest with as low as KES 10

For global markets, it depends with the broker you choose.
Most brokers now allow trading of fractional shares. Hence you can start with as low as 1$

Most Kenyans limit their wealth to land, stocks, or unit trusts.

But what if you could access a globally managed portfolio—built by experts, diversified across continents with potential USD returns of 12.5% p.a?

Here's Signature CIO Funds by Standard Chartered Bank Kenya.👇👇 What are the Signature CIO Funds?

These are professionally designed portfolios, created by Standard Chartered’s Chief Investment Office in partnership with Amundi, one of the world’s largest asset managers.

This means your money benefits from institutional-grade research, strategic asset allocation, and expert risk management.

Last week, I met a group of 5 men who had just returned from hiking Ngong Hills.

What started as a casual lunch turned into one of the most powerful conversations I’ve had about life insurance.

Here’s what happened — and why it might change how you think about wealth.🧵 These men are close—brothers in spirit. They hike together monthly.

One of them, a long-time client, had invited me to join them for late lunch after the hike and speak about whole life insurance.

Not the usual post-hike topic. But what prompted it was deeply personal.

Many Kenyans don't know that they can invest in global companies like Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, Netflix, etc

In this thread I answer the frequently asked questions about investing in offshore stocks & ETFs as a Kenyan.

1/ What's the minimum investment required? Depending with your broker or investment partner, you can start with as low as $1

Barriers to entry are low due to fractional shares - you can own a fraction of a share hence you can access global markets for as low as $1

Most people who are investing in apartments in Kenya, are just buying because it feels good to own one.

Not because it's a great investment. Same with plots of land.

You end up tying your capital to illiquid, low yielding assets.

Here are better alternatives👇👇 Why did I say that most people who own apartments are only buying them because it feels good, and not because it's a good investment opportunity?

If you own an apartment, do you know what's it's rental yield? Do you know it's current market value?

Most people don't have any idea.

Real Estate has two return elements:
1. Rental yield
2. Capital gains.

Yesterday, I sold a whole life insurance cover to a 45-year-old lady.

Her words during our conversation have stuck with me and thought I would share the same.

Here’s what she told me when I asked her why she really wanted to take up the whole life cover👇👇 1. I took this cover to protect my children.

“A friend who had already taken the policy asked me something I couldn’t shake off:

‘If you died today, name five people who would take care for your kids the same way you do — financially.’

I couldn’t name even one.

Sure, my friends and family love my kids. I know they’d offer support.

But would they pay school fees? Would they cover medical bills, extracurriculars, pocket money, rent?

The truth is — they wouldn’t. Not because they don’t care, but because they have their own struggles.”

“Which stock should I buy?”

If you’ve ever asked yourself this, you’re not alone.

Here’s a beginner-friendly guide to help you analyze stocks and choose the right ones with confidence.

Breakdown below👇👇 There are two main ways to analyze a stock

a) Fundamental Analysis: You dig into real data from financial statements like the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement.

b) Technical Analysis:
This is about looking at price charts and patterns to guess where the stock price will move next.

Mostly used by short-term traders trying to profit from quick price changes.

I get this question a lot

"Since you don't recommend education policies, what product do you recommend to save for kids' education?"

Here's my answer👇👇 Before, we answer this, you need to use first principles reasoning and ask yourself the following:

1. What kind of education do you want for your kids?
Homeschooling? Ivy league schools? Group of schools? public schools? Havard? Oxford?

This matters a lot as you can estimate the cost of education and hence understand how much you need to save or invest.

Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset class of the last decade, averaging 82% p.a.

Institutions that warned investors to stay away from BTC now embrace it.

First, they suggested a cautious 1–2% allocation which grew to 5%

Here's a 9 Step Guide on How to Buy Bitcoin 1. Understand What Bitcoin is and Why It Matters

Before investing, take time to understand why Bitcoin was created and what problem it solves.

Why this matters: You’ll have stronger conviction and won’t panic when prices drop.

Book Recommendations:
a) The Bitcoin Standard
b) The Fiat Standard
c) Broken Money

One of the main reasons why people regret investment decisions is not having exit strategies when getting started:

1. Education policies - you can't withdraw your savings before maturity unless they have accrued some surrender value

2. Treasury bonds - selling in the secondary market may come at a loss. 3. Endowment policies - You can't withdraw your savings before maturity unless they have accrued some surrender value

4. SACCO BOSA savings - You can only access your savings by taking a loan or when leaving the SACCO. The refund may take upto 60 days.

5. SACCO shares - You have to find a willing buyer for your SACCO shares when leaving the SACCO for you to get your money back

What asset classes can you add to your USD portfolio?

Why is it important to diversify your portfolio in multiple currencies?

A short thread🧵 I've always recommended a portfolio allocation of 50% KES denominated assets and 50% USD denominated assets

But why do I recommend this kind of portfolio?

1. Protect yourself from the weakening and not so stable Kenyan shilling.

10 years ago, 1 USD = 86KES
Today, 1USD = 130KES

In less than 10 years, the KES depreciated by about 50%

Treasury Bills vs Treasury Bonds.

Most people confuse the two even though they are more different that similar.

In this thread:
1. Learn why T-bonds are the best source of passive income in Kenya.
2. Learn why I don't recommend investing in T-bills

Let's go👇👇 Let's start with definitions:

T-bills - short term debt obligations for the Kenyan govenrnment.

T-bonds - Long term debt obligations for the Kenyan government.

In simple terms, when you invest in a T-bill you are lending money to GoK for a short period of time(less than a year) while if you invest in a T-bond, you are lending money to GoK for more than one year (2-30 years)

When most people think of passive income in Kenya, Rental Income from Real Estate comes to mind.

But what is the best source of passive income in Kenya?

Here's why rental income isn't the best source of passive income and how other alternatives compare

Breakdown below👇 Before we start, let me make the following clear:

1. We are comparing asset classes based on one return element only - cash flow generation.

2. We are talking about passive income. Where you put your money, do nothing and wait for a return.

Of course if you want more money from your capital, you can get more involved, start a business and take up more risk.

Avoid these money mistakes:

1. Never save your emergency fund in a SACCO

2. Never use your Money market fund for long term investing.

3. Never save money using your banks’ saving or fixed deposit account

4. Never use your Chama as your only savings or investment plan Here's the Breakdown:
1. Savings in your SACCO and your share capital in a SACCO are not easily accessible.

The best place to save for your emergency fund is in a Money Market Fund

2. Money Market Funds are best suited for short term preservation of cash.

Not for long term investing. They give a return that keeps up with the inflation rate and prevailing interest rates.

The best opportunities for wealth creation are in the stock market, Bonds, Real estate, and other assets.