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Karthik S Profile picture
Karthik S
@karthiks
Building @BabbageInsight. Veteran Blogger. Data guy. My book has blurbs from @shashitharoor and @bibekdebroy
Apr 15, 2020 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
One class of people who have become loud of twitter of late is what I call the "testing mafia". Every time someone tweets some covid-19 related news that seems mildly positive, they instinctively react "but we aren't testing enough".

I want to take a small maths class here This is one of our learnings from the AIDS epidemic of the 1980s and early 90s, and is a staple feature of high high school and college maths classes in the last 2 decades. This has to do with Bayes's Theorem.
Apr 11, 2020 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Lots of people expressing curiosity about the "sealdown" in Padarayanapura and Bapujinagar wards of Bangalore.

Let me try to do a thread only stating the facts. Let's start with the notification on these two wards being sealed down.

Apr 2, 2020 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Back to modelling time. The other day I had written a blogpost exploring a few scenarios of spread of Covid-19, and kinda what regulation should look like.

noenthuda.com/blog/2020/03/3… This morning I was "presenting the blogpost" to a bunch of people from @TakshashilaInst , and thought it might add value to change parameters in the middle of the discussion.

So I used @rstudio Shiny to build up some web dashboards for simulations
Mar 18, 2020 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Some simulations on how a disease like Covid19 will grow in different circumstances, based on the simulator I'd built earlier this week Let's assume a population size of 20000 (larger makes it computationally too intensive). Let's assume each person, on average, meets 50 other people a day.

Who meets whom is governed by a "small world network" (pioneered by @duncanjwatts and @stevenstrogatz )
Dec 12, 2019 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Hotstar released their "India Watch Report" yesterday. Has a lot of fascinating insights, but I have some questions.

It innocuously starts off with a "data puke" - what use this table is to whom I don't know It's this demographic split that I'm most suspicious about. Basically as far as I know, @hotstartweets has data for only one person per account (unlike Netflix, where you have differnet personas). And I don't remember what personal info it asks for
May 24, 2019 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
A whopping 332 out of 542 constituencies in the just-concluded General Elections saw a two-way contest. Another 184 saw three-way contests.

In contrast, in the 2014 elections only 169 two-way contests, 278 three-cornered contests and 90 four-cornered contests How do you determine the number of corners of a contest? It is using a formula called ENPV (Effective number of parties - votes. Thanks @vdehejia ). It is the inverse of the sum of squares of the vote shares of each candidate in each constituency (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective…)