The Mathematics of Occupation

Let’s play a game. Lets look at a potential scenario where Ukraine falls into the hands of Russian soldiers, after giving an earnest and commendable fight – one for the ages, and we move into the counterinsurgency arena. (1/12) The reality is that NATO countries won’t intervene in this situation. The umbrella of Article 5 comes with a commensurate inability to go in and help unilaterally, especially given Russia on the other side of it. So lets take a look at some occupations through history. (2/12)

We're less than two weeks into the defence of Ukraine, and the demands have both come and started to fade out. Talk of #denazification has given way to just wanting to keep Crimea and letting the two regions go.

However.... 🧵 The EU and NATO are precisely the reason Ukraine has been able to endure this. The idea to commit to never joining them is an odd one, as it boils down do:

"Don't do the one thing that helped you survive our attack".

That's not a bargain anyone in Ukraine would take....