New @IpsosUK Political Pulse makes difficult reading for Labour as eyes turn to the budget. Quick 🧵

1/ When we look across the first '100 days' we can see a clear negative shift in favourability towards the Labour Party. Similar numbers to others now.

ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-a… 2/ Where has support for Labour dropped? Well, if we look at the swing in net favourability there has been a negative 13.5pt swing overall. With the most striking negative shift among those aged 55+

NEW from @IpsosUK: As featured in @stephenkb's newsletter today (below):

Half of Britons disappointed in Labour govt so far. Includes 1 in 4 Labour voters from July

Quick 🧵

ft.com/content/149e49…
1/ As we've seen with other @IpsosUK data there is a clear sign of worsening poll ratings for the PM.

25% think Starmer doing a good job. 42% bad. Clear worsening since July. Scores not dissimilar to Sunak in summer 2023.

Some movement today in our latest @IpsosUK with Greens and Libs up and Reform down but macro Lab / Con position similar.

Let's look a bit deeper though. Some interesting movement in other figures too. Green shoots for Cons? Not really but....

Let's look deeper🧵

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1792462013249319175

1/ Good news for the Cons: sharp rise in economic optimism this month. From -31 in April to -4 in May.

Will economy improve / worsen in next 12 months?

Improve 33% (+12 from April)
Worsen 37% (-15)
Stay same 25% (+4)
Dont know 6% (+1)

Highest net score since August 21.

🚨NEW @IpsosUK / @standardnews: Labour lead up to 22 🚨

Labour 49% (+8 from Dec)
Conservative 27% (+3)
Lib Dems 7% (-6)
Green 7% (-2)
Reform 4% (-3)
Other 5% (-1)

Data below. But what else? 🧵

ipsos.com/en-uk/keir-sta… 1/ Let's start with leader satisfaction ratings. Not much change here.

Sunak
Satisfied: 20%
Dissatisfied: 66%
Net: -46

Starmer
Satisfied: 30%
Dissatisfied: 48%
Net: -18

Following on from this - why aren't the Greens doing better? There is clearly strong public concern about climate change.

84% told us they were concerned about CC last August (half very concerned) and half felt net zero targets should be brought forward.

So what gives? 🧵 https://t.co/FuvFDLSwoL

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1683780568230625281

1/ Well, first we should say thee Greens "are" doing better "than they were".

At this year's locals they gained ~250 seats and now have majority control of mid Suffolk council. Steady improvement.

Yet their average poll rating in Westminster polls is stuck around 5-6%. Why?

NEW from @IpsosUK /@standardnews:

- Labour is ahead on the issues that matter to the public

- But public are in the dark about what Lab would do in office / stand for. Does it matter? 🧵 1/ We asked voters what issues are most likely to impact how they'd vote in a General Election. Picture consistent with our @IpsosUK issues index.

NHS / cost of living / economy and immigration / asylum are top issues.

NEW from @IpsosUK /@standardnews. Labour lead at +23. Changes from Feb.

- Labour 49% (-2)
- Conservative 26% (+1)
- Lib Dems 11% (+2)
- Greens 6% (+1)
- Other 8% (-1)

1,004 GB telephone interviews March 22-29

So no change. BUT there is ALOT more going on 🧵 1/ First of all, some good news for the PM. His leader satisfaction ratings improve and Starmer's worsen

Sunak
Satisfied 32% (+5)
Dissatisfied 54% (-5)

Starmer
Satisfied 31% (-3)
Dissatisfied 51% (+5)

Little to choose between the two leaders. Starmer figures worth watching.

NEW from @IpsosUK. Our latest Political Pulse shows no improvement in Rishi Sunak's personal poll ratings post Budget / boats announcement.

Favourable 29% (+2 from Feb)
Unfavourable 45% (-1)

THREAD/ 1/ When we compare the favourability ratings of leading UK politicians we find little difference in Sunak / Starmer % favourable but more Britons unfavourable towards Sunak.

Meanwhile, Hunt / Braverman similar to Feb

Hunt: 22% (+4) / 44% (-2)
Braverman 17% (+3) / 45% (-2)

Where do the public stand on Rishi Sunak's 5 pledges?

New @IpsosUK polling shows public are sceptical Sunak can deliver - with the NHS a significant political challenge. THREAD BELOW:

ipsos.com/en-uk/public-s… 1/ How to evaluate public opinion on Sunak pledges?

Each pledge includes an action and a consequence e.g. action = halve inflation, consequence = ease cost of living.

So we split each pledge into 2 creating 10 statements, asking which were important & could Con / Lab deliver?

New on nurses strikes from @IpsosUK:

- 57% of the public think govt to blame for the dispute lasting this long.
- 9% blame nurses. Rest neutral or don't know.

Quick thread: 1/ Important point when looking at strikes is whilst 8 in 10 think it is important trade unions exist to represent workers rights, public support for specific action tends to depend on who is striking.

Doctors, teachers pretty well supported. Others less so.

🚨NEW from @IpsosUK: Final Political Monitor of the year has Labour lead at 26🚨

•Labour 49% (-1 from Nov)
•Conservatives 23% (-6)
•Lib Dems 13% (+6)
•Greens 3% (no change)
•Other 11% (+1)

Fieldwork 7-13 December.

Labour had led by 9 last Jan (40/31)

THREAD More from @IpsosUK: Which Party do you trust more to...(changes from Sept)

Grow the economy
Lab 29% (+2)
Con 29% (-13)

Reduce cost of living
Lab 37% (-3)
Con 19% (-6)

Manage immigration
Lab 28% (+1)
Con 19% (-6)

Where does Rishi Sunak stand today? A few Friday evening observations from me based on our latest @IpsosUK data this week.

1/ The Tories are in a hole. A big one. Our latest Political Monitor shows Labour +21 ahead. 2/ On face value, Sunak himself is in a bad place only likely to get worse. His net satisfaction rating is -8 and most PMs get worse over time.

But Johnson started on -7 & obviously won a GE before his demise. Sunak may end badly as most do but perhaps he does ok on the journey?

New from @IpsosUK: Rishi Sunak faces a tough time turning the Conservative's fortunes around. THREAD.

1/ First the public mood is negative. 69% think Britain heading in the wrong direction (highest since GE2019), just 9%(!) say right direction (lowest since GE2019). 2/ @IpsosUK polling shows the Conservative brand is in a spot of bother.

Conservatives
Favourable 20% (lowest since GE2019)
Unfavourable 56% (highest since GE2019)
Net: -36

New from @IpsosUK: Lots of talk of economic growth lately but what does it mean to the public? We've been doing some polling for @TheEconomist w/ @mattholehouse on this very subject.

TLDR - public positive about growth but not at ANY cost. THREAD/ 1/ First of all, the public mainly associate economic growth with positive outcomes e.g. jobs, wages, more money for services etc rather than negatives such as pollution or pressure on infrastructure.

NEW from @IpsosUK: 13 pt increase since May in % of Brits that think Starmer likely to be PM

Likely 51% (+13) / Unlikely 35% (-12)

Numbers have basically reversed since Jan.

THREAD 1/ Meanwhile, 18% think Liz Truss is doing a good job as PM. This is lower than Johnson's 26% just before he announced his intention to resign.

However, more thought he was doing a bad job at the time.

NEW from @IpsosUK: Two-thirds lack confidence in the government's long term economic plan.

So how bad has this week been for the govt? THREAD/ 1/ Let's start at the beginning. 8 in 10 told us this week (28-29 Sept) the state of Britain's economy was poor. This compares to 77% last weekend. However, in that time the proportion saying 'very poor' has increased from 37% to 50%.

Could Keir Starmer be finding his voice in the current energy crisis? Could this be his 'David Cameron moment'?

Quite possibly. Will explain. Quick thread:

https://twitter.com/JeremyVineOn5/status/1564896178659106816

1/ Starmer's leader satisfaction rating have been so so to-date.

In July, we found 29% of Britons satisfied with the job he was doing as Labour leader and 49% dissatisfied (including 30% of current Labour voters).

A net score of -20.

How does that compare?

As just seen on @SkyNews new polling from @IpsosUK shows 1 in 3 Britons saying they've found it difficult to afford their energy bills in the past 3 months.

Lower income households, those with kids most negative.

This remember BEFORE the new price cap is announced.

THREAD Little wonder then that public concern about the cost of living is sky high and continues to grow. I would politely suggest people obsessing about other things are not focusing on what matters.

NEW from @IpsosUK: Public think a Labour govt led by Starmer more likely than a Con govt led by Truss to deliver in 12 / 13 areas.

Biggest leads for Starmer's Labour on improving public services (+13), reducing NHS waiting times (+12), levelling up (+12), fresh start (+10) More from @IpsosUK: same picture when comparing a Sunak led Con govt to a Starmer led Lab govt

NEW from @IpsosUK: Today we release Boris Johnson's final satisfaction rating as PM.

24% satisfied
69% dissatisfied.
Net -45

But how does this compare to past PM's FINAL net ratings...

Thatcher: -46
Major: -27
Blair: -27
Brown: -24
Cameron: -38
May: -44
Johnson: -45 What about Keir Starmer? Our latest @IpsosUK net satisfaction ratings show:

29% satisfied
49% dissatisfied
Net -20

The average for a leader of the opposition since 1980 is -12.

But most of them lose. Both Blair (+22) and Cameron (+3) went into GE they won with net positives.

NEW from @IpsosUK / @standardnews.

🚨Labour lead at 14 🚨

Lab 44 (+3)
Con 30 (nc)
Lib Dems 10 (-5)
Green 8 (+2)
Other 8 (nc)

Fieldwork July 21-27. Changes from June.

But there is a catch... When we compare 2019 Cons to 2019 Lab:

- 2019 Cons are x 3 more likely to say they are undecided or wouldn't vote (18% vs 6%)
&
- 62% of 2019 Cons are certain to vote vs 79% of 2019 Lab.

So whilst wavering Con voters don't fix the party's problems the lead feels possibly soft