Got a glimpse of Trump's China policy this morning, as Mike Waltz appeared on CNBC. His logic was:

– You don't “solve” Gaza in Gaza. You solve it by dealing with Tehran. As long as they are flushed with cash, the Middle East is never going to have peace.

- China buys 90% of Iran's illicit oil. We'll be having some conversations with China about those purchases.
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/U.S.-… 2/ Other things he said:
– We're in communication with President Biden's team, with his national security adviser Jake Sullivan and one of the lead negotiators, Amos Hochstein.
–Resolving Lebanon will further isolate Hamas, and we are all hopeful we can drive some type of resolution to get our hostages home by Inauguration Day.
– We’re seeing the “President Trump effect,” where suddenly everybody's ready to deal. We're seeing that across the board and around the world.
– My message to the world, and I think Mr. Sullivan would certainly agree, is, to our adversaries, if you think this is a moment of opportunity, that you can play one administration off against each other, we don't agree on every issue, but we are in communication. You cannot use this as a moment of opportunity. And we need to send that message as fellow Americans loud and clear.
– Solving Iran will help stability in the Russia Ukraine theater as well. Iran provides ballistic missiles and literally 1000s and 1000s of drones that are going into that theater. The Middle East is also a key component to resolving the Russia Ukraine conflict.
– If the Biden administration is escalating (by allowing Ukraine to fire into Russia) in response to a North Korean escalation, now South Korea is talking about some type of potential involvement. We keep climbing this escalation ladder. And to what end? What is success in line with America's interests?

There was a buzz among defense contractors at the #AUSA2023 in Washington this week. Especially the Koreans, fresh off a landmark arms deal with Poland.

Amid Gaza war, South Korean arms makers take aim at U.S. market via @NikkeiAsiaasia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defen… 2/ In Hanwha Aerospace's 232-sq.-meter booth was a massive K9 self-propelled howitzer, the same type that the company has sold to Poland.

Also on display were various charge systems for 155-millimeter rounds, one of the most in-demand artillery munitions in use in Ukraine.

No checks, no balance.

1/ China's summer political season has arrived. Communist Party leaders have gathered in Beidaihe to hold their annual, secretive discussions on the state of the nation.

asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks… 2/ In his 11 years in power, this is the first time that Xi Jinping will not have to face the most powerful of the party elders. Jiang Zemin has passed away. Hu Jintao is said to no longer be based in Beijing.

Analysis: Xi throws Okinawa into East Asia geopolitical cocktail

1/ On June 4, the People's Daily published a story on its front page.

It introduced Xi's comments on the Ryukyu Islands, present day Okinawa, Japan's southernmost prefecture.
asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks… 2/ Xi was visiting the China National Archives, a facility established on the outskirts of Beijing last year.

During the tour, Xi stopped in front of a woodblock-printed book about the history of the Ryukyus.

NATO will deepen collaboration with its four major partners in the Indo-Pacific, simultaneously preparing bilateral cooperation documents with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, Nikkei Asia has learned. (1/4)

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… via @NikkeiAsia 2/ The four, collectively known as the Asian-Pacific partners (AP4), are currently tagged as "partners across the globe" by NATO.

The alliance will formulate an Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP) with all four -- an upgrade to a higher form of partnership.

1/ "If China were to invade Taiwan, it could face a four-front crisis."

Such commentary pieces have been popping up on Chinese social media and have uncharacteristically not been deleted.

asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks… via @NikkeiAsia 2/ Those fours fronts are:
(1) the Taiwan Strait
(2) the Korean Peninsula
(3) South China Sea & South Pacific
(4) the Himalaya border

NATO is planning to open a liaison office in Tokyo, the first of its kind in Asia, Nikkei Asia has learned.
The station will allow it to conduct periodic consultations with Japan and key partners as China emerges as a new challenge. asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… 2/ @MichitoTsuruoka says NATO having a foothold in Tokyo would have a significant meaning for Japan. "It means that when NATO looks at Asia, including China, it will be doing so through Tokyo's prism. When the representative sends back information, it will always be via Tokyo."

Deep in the water, running on a lithium-ion battery that is virtually silent, Japan's Taigei-class submarines are one of the stealthiest boats in the world.

Japan's new Hakugei submarine packs a stealthy underwater burst asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… via @NikkeiAsia 2/ The lithium-ion battery "not only gives extended submerged endurance but perhaps, more importantly, higher underwater burst speeds," says @CollinSLKoh

CSIS has quietly built up an archive of 200 translations of recent Chinese speeches, academic papers and government documents in hopes of offering a better understanding of Beijing's ambitions and fears. @CSIS_Interpret
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… via @NikkeiAsia 2/ The project models itself after how the U.S. sought a laserlike understanding of the Soviet leadership during the Cold War. "All too often we're relying on what others are saying about China. We want to stop and listen to the discussion, the dialogue" @CSISFreeman

Earthquake or China? U.S. Navy's biggest fear

The samurai, merchants and villagers on Japan's east coast were puzzled one day in January 1700 when a tsunami hit their towns. There was no known earthquake in Japan that seemed to have triggered the waves. asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… 2/ History books recorded the incident as the "orphan tsunami."

It wasn't until 300 years later, in the 1990s, that the orphan tsunami was linked to its parent: a magnitude-9.0 earthquake that hit the U.S. Pacific Northwest on Jan. 26, 1700, some 8,000 kilometers away.

From Abe’s memoir:

Xi stopped reading from prepared remarks in 2018, a sign of his growing authority.

Xi said he "would not join the American Communist Party if he were born in the U.S. Instead he would be part of the Democratic or Republican party”

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Shinz… 2/ Trump did not see himself as the leader of the Western world, Abe said. "He saw things from a bilateral lens, like treating U.S.-China ties as a matter of the trade balance or looking at U.S.-Russia relations solely as a matte of national security”

Kurt Campbell says the U.S.-Japan 2+2 held this week in Washington was "one of the most consequential engagements between our two countries in decades"
@CSIS csis.org/events/indo-pa… 2/ Campbell: Kishida's arrival in Washington Friday will be unusual in that he is not arriving directly from Asia, but coming after completing "a remarkable visit through Europe" in which the dominant topic was how Japan can work more closely with Europe to support Ukraine.

This is a key indicator.

Chinese business leaders are more optimistic about geopolitical risks in 2023 than their Japanese and South Korean counterparts.

(This is because they have sensed a shift in the messaging from the top)

asia.nikkei.com/Business/Busin… 2/ In Japan the answers were:

The geopolitical environment will be better in 2023 = 0%

Geopolitical risks will worsen= 32%

U.S.-Japan two-plus-two gets real.

1/ In trying to repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the U.S. and Japan would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of service members, a report by @CSIS envisions.

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… 2/ Based on 24 wargames, the Washington think tank found that in three weeks, the U.S. would suffer about half as many casualties as it did in 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
csis.org/analysis/first…

Young Americans oppose increasing U.S. troop numbers in Asia

1/ The way that the next generation of U.S. leaders thinks will have major implications for America's treaty allies in Asia -- Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand.

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… 2/ @ProfessorHannah notes that one of the reasons U.S. President Joe Biden's handling of the Ukraine war is popular is "because it encouraged European countries to take more responsibility for European security."

Voters may seek similar burden sharing in Asia

Analysis: China's power struggles were ferocious in 1972 and remain so today

1/ In September 1972, Japanese PM Tanaka flew to Beijing to meet Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai -- a visit that led to the normalization of diplomatic relations.

asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks… 2/ Akitane Kiuchi, 95, who was Tanaka's executive secretary, recently revealed that after the talks in Beijing were done, Zhou asked Tanaka earnestly that he visit Shanghai. The Japanese leader did not know why but agreed to honor his host's wishes.

What's China's Taiwan game plan?

1/ A @ChinaPowerCSIS survey finds that U.S. experts do not believe Beijing has a coherent strategy for peaceful unification -- or has plans for immediate military action on Taiwan.

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… 2/ 80% of respondents said "no" China does not have a road map to peaceful unification.

CSIS says this is related to "China's inability to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwan government and people" and the collapse of the "one country, two systems" model in Hong Kong

Clock ticks on Iran nuclear talks as geopolitics hinder progress

1/ The window of opportunity may be closing, as events on the political calendar, such as the U.S. midterm elections, make it more difficult to reach a deal in the future.

@tala_taslimi
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energ… 2/ @tparsi : "I don't believe the US is going to be turning to Iran for energy or even promoting Iran as an energy provider. Washington's calculation is that it needs to keep its existing allies and partners at almost any cost for the showdown with China"

U.S. needs satellite constellation to counter China

1/ China and Russia “have invested heavily in the ability to destroy, not just disrupt or degrade but to DESTROY, our space capabilities” Saltzman said.

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… 2/ GPS is crucial to the navigation and coordination of many American military assets. Once the GPS is down and planes, ships and tanks are unable to communicate, U.S. military superiority over adversaries such as China and Russia is expected to be significantly negated.

1/ In a recent military exercise near New Caledonia, the fictitious island of "Badland" showed signs of invading neighbor "Goodland." France, seeing its territory at risk, deployed its air assets.
The mission was to reach the theater in 72 hours.

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… 2/ On Aug. 13, three Dassault Rafale fighters, two Airbus A330 multi-role tanker transports (MRTTs) and two A400M Atlas transport aircraft arrived in the South Pacific from France within the allotted time. The convoy made short fuel stops in Sulur, India, and Darwin, Australia.

Has China implanted software on the drones it exports so they don't re-enter Chinese airspace?
Defense analyst @ameliairheart says it is possible.
eurasiantimes.com/restrictive-ch… 2/ "Since the UAV needs to be aware of its position in case of a lost connection to the ground station, a similar function could force the UAV to turn around and fly the other direction if it gets within a certain distance of the Chinese border, or crosses the border"