Suddenly see sumo oranges everywhere. so went down the rabbit hole on them.

New variant started in 2011. But with 4 years to get to production

Unsurprisingly they are indeed the orange industry's honey crisp. Who says innovation is dead haha Only one company in US makes them. In asia at least very similar variants are way more common i think

look at this launch calendar haha

My conspiracy theory is that oil isn’t dinosaurs. It’s the carbon capture technology of the dinosaurs

This is the only thing I want to believe. And makes all carbon capture tech innovation infinitely more funny to me. Dinosaur time traveler: how do you like our gift to your generatio…sorry you thought that was *made* from my dead body. And you shoved it into your car?!?!

Sword of Damocles: The real sword of Damocles is this poll. And if you answer wrong gonna block you

Here's chart I made for myself that I think about. Basically the only time period of US history where we've gone this long without a president winning with 75%+ of electoral college was post-civil war period

Lots of ways to interpret this. One would be to think about what are plausible paths of someone getting those numbers in today's age. If we expect reversion to mean, than it's very interesting to understand what paths someone will cut through it.

Another interpretation of course would be to be bearish. A third

We're at odd ground right now where there's not really any medium for mid/long form discussion on blog posts anymore

Blog post replies not really a thing. Twitter used to be but less a place for discussion. Private email and group chat sort of the place, but issues with both Email or spinning up something like a discourse seems like the temporary solution I'm increasingly tempted by

Latter is tempting after seeing some successes in it on protocol forums for long form. But has whole list of other reasons high activation energy

As always remarkably impressed by vitalik's writing. Do think he's writing at a level that few are matching in discourse with him, which is shame.

Personally, I think two additions that it's not clear market has consensus on are
1. is financialization a core attribute or a tempo

https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1442039126606311427

rary distribution method for crypto

2. is the reliance on exit as the safeguard a temporary or long term solution. Which implies views on the long term stability of individual crypto projects vs constant churn due to the incentives towards defection we've seen market give today

Really great for Waymo. Dmitri Dolgov is perfect person to run Waymo

When I was at greylock & investing in AV companies I talked to many people in the industry. And he was consistently in the top of everyone’s dream list of people to recruit from Google

cnbc.com/2021/04/02/way… There will be a movie/book one day about AV. And people will come to appreciate the prequel Grand challenge / Google lineage that has led to this

Urmson: Aurora
Dmitri: Waymo
Jiajun: Nuro
Salesky: Argo

Lots of anger on the process for getting vaccine

Stepping back, reminded of universality of rising consumer expectations

Once people had world class consumer apps better ent apps was inevitable

So too will it be for govt services. The frustration is painful but also great sign It's easy to bash the digital experiences of govt services. Often rightly so

But sobering to realize that much of user improvement of ent products has only been in last *decade*

Progress get most pulled when consumers flip from default satisfied to upset at lack of improvement

https://twitter.com/johnolilly/status/1295585570798764032

I was skeptical on signal risk being big issue. Its impact on potential new vcs is still overweighted imo

But recent convos with founder friends has flipped my view

The real issue is how it changes openness on fundraising strategy between founders & *current* investor Because now they are player in the next round too. So founders become a lot more sensitive about what to share and being able to talk it through with them

Not only bc have to still be marketing to them (which I personally think people underweight degree you always must do that)

And so the great Paloma Project begins Espolon tequila x grapefruit

Years ago was randomly trying to find video of In the Heights. Stumbled on yahoo groups where these cams were traded

They had manual seeding/leeching setup. Realized it was high schoolers w/ broadway dreams, but very limited access to actual shows (not living in nyc / cost)

https://twitter.com/kateefeldman/status/1279778685860696064

Love finding these niche communities on the internet. And to the lovely person who took pity on me and sent me the video of In the Heights. She added me on social later and has been great to watch her pursue her acting dreams

Broadway historically has been very hard to access

Love to see @Alex_Danco writing about loops!

Thermodynamics and systems clearly is very promising vein to draw on in studying loops--so great to see Danco dive into the Carnot cycle and transfer learn principles of loops

Go read!

Via @dwr

alexdanco.com/2020/06/19/the… One of the odd questions is why thermodynamics and systems analysis were never really merged in with the groups studying these kinds of loops in business context over last half century

Reminds me of Origin of Wealth's theory that econ was a fork of laws of thermodynamics half

Great post by Casey

There's huge difference in the strategies to get to a minimum viable loop, and those to strengthen an existing loop.

And conflating these is source of so much confusion in advice given and taken in tech

https://twitter.com/onecaseman/status/1272549504542142464

Casey is probably person I've spent the most time in a room discussing these things with. And wish we could still do it weekly.

Much of the time in tech people complain about advice given and how it's useless or even worse contradictory. But they come ot wrong conclusion

Awesome to see Primer announce

So much to be built to support parents and help many more to homeschool their kids

And to help bring together the communities around them

Can't wait for @maksim_s, @delk, and the team to share more over the coming months

blog.withprimer.com/announcing-pri… The outsized role the quirks of location play on kids lives is wild

The difference one amazing teacher, school system, community can play is insane.

It wasn't until I was much older that I realized how lucky I was to be surrounded throughout by such a supportive community

Post cards from Animal Crossing

Some things are constants no matter where you live Gotta make sure all the islanders support their local community

Thinking of making a turnip mercantile exchange with @kane

Will set up an island dedicated to turnip derivatives

Come trade futures, options, and puts.

https://twitter.com/kevinakwok/status/1244384324331470850

Don’t let tom nook tell you shortselling is banned

Big Daisy Mae is not too big to fail

Nice article on HEB's prep for COVID.

texasmonthly.com/food/heb-prepa…

Have come to view that individuals should have similar rigor as companies on planning for potential massive external shocks
- what to track to know coming
- downside mitigation and plans
- upside plans and structure I'd say that to varying levels, many people were ahead of curve on seeing it coming. Those with chinese ties/business even faster at recognizing risk

But don't think most of us were great at having full planning. Sure bought food a month earlier than most--but much to improve

The chart I pull daily on COVID-19 to anchor myself on it

Daily growth rate of confirmed cases is the main one I look at

If this stays around 30% growth in cases DAILY these next two weeks will feel like huge escalation This drives the aggregate chart of confirmed cases in US

I find this chart less useful because base so small and graph so steep.

But the growth rate chart is what makes clear how much this can feel like nothing but could escalate a lot

Worm is the best superhero fiction. Short pitch is world where physical superpowers are weak, and best are ones like AB testing world and high level stochastic analysis

Some screenshots to convince mainly @patio11 to read it (not very spoiler-y)

parahumans.wordpress.com

via @z @patio11 @z One villain's ability is to understand complex systems (and write 300 page YIMBY consulting decks)

This weeks survivor. I feel like everyone overrotated on the bag dumping

Which was impressive but nowhere near as impressive as whatever verbal akido parvati and rob did to Ben’s attack at tribal

That should line by line be deconstructed at studied haha actually maybe the real takeaway from the ep is Danni's emotional flux/thrash

Which is very easy to comment on how bad a move it was, which is true

But is also very real, and in startups and investing you see all the time due to the discomfort of uncertainty