MACRO LINK - the most interest writing you probably aren't aware of...

I am attracted to individuals who are different. I find nothing more fascinating than someone who is willing to carve their own unique path through life.

1 of 13 Everyone says they appreciate someone who thinks outside the box, yet when you look at the number of Ivy League Grads who get hired onto Wall Street each year, I don't believe them. I remember getting voted down because I wanted to hire a poor kid...

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The trader-in-me is getting more bearish US stocks.

Many of you know I am usually a bull, but let me walk you through why I am getting more nervous and think we might be in for some stormy seas ahead.

1/ of 10 Let me start with one of my favourite indicators - the Yardeni "fundamental stock" gauge.

For those who want some background - read this: themacrotourist.com/posts/2017/02/…

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Mini-tweet storm for bond 'tourists

In a previous post I outlined various FALSE bond bear arguments that you should run away from...

1/ of 6 Today, I will try to refute a common narrative that I often hear from bond bulls:

"The government will peg entire yield curve and even if you are right about increased inflation, you won't make any money on your short position because long rates will be 0%."

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LAST TWEET STORM FOR THE SUMMER:

THE BOND BUBBLE

It's tough one for me to write as the blowback will be enormous, but I am taking a lesson from this sloth and going to just give zero f's and trudge on.

1 of 25 We had the DotCom bubble. Then the real estate/credit bubble.

And we are now in the third bubble of my lifetime - the bond bubble.

This one is different (they always are) in that it's not filled with the same sort of speculative froth, but it's still ominous.

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Kev's "End of Monetarism" Twitter Rant:

OK, this is going to be a long one and sure to piss off a great many folks, so without further ado - let's do it! Make sure you hang on! It's going to be a bumpy ride.

1/ of 19 This morning we are getting a stupid-just-get-me-into fixed-income rally. Bond desks look like Black Friday at Best Buy. The US long bond future is up 2 handles. The German 10-year bund is ticking at all-time low yields of minus 65 basis points.

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Today's tweet storm: A flashback to 1987 and some wise words from Bruce Kovner

This morning we have some real panicky moves in bonds. This sort of increase in volatility with ugly flattening is ominous, and I continue to be concerned about risk assets

Let's dive in

1/ of 5 If we get a really bad risk-off move, I know the initial knee jerk reaction will be to buy US dollars. I get it. I understand the rationale.

However, I want to remind you of Bruce Kovner's Market Wizards recount of the 1987 equity crash:

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Today's thread: Powell and most important chart in the world - 2-yr TIPS yields

I firmly believe that Powell took office with the idea of knocking the financial excesses out of the market, but was scared off by Wall Street and Trump

1/ of 6 Powell thought the costs associated with cleaning up the Great Financial Crisis after the crash far outweighed the benefits of letting the bubble develop in the first place. He was determined to raise rates and stop a bubble before it gained too much of a foothold.

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Tonight's tweet storm is all about FX, Trump, and vol

Remember back to Sep 2017? Back then Trump still hadn't figured out he had the power to administer unilateral tariffs on countries. The world was stuck on this idea that Trump's power was actually limited by office

1/ of 6 But in a @Jkylebass interview by @RaoulGMI on @realvision, Kyle wisely pointed out that Trump, under the Trade Act of 1974, had the power to unilaterally impose tariffs up to 15% at any time.

Kyle joked that he was pretty sure Trump didn't know that.

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QT/QE lesson from Druck and what's really important with tomorrow's FOMC statement

Today's thread is about QE/QT and the non-intuitive market response to the Fed buying/selling bonds.

I have long argued that QE was BOND BEARISH - not bullish

1/ of 8 Now, I know most everyone thinks the opposite. The Fed buying bonds through QE? That must mean bonds are headed higher - after all there is all that extra demand out there. Even the Federal Reserve tells you in their research their buying lowered yield on bonds.

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Beyond Meat Call/Put Parity Lesson

$BYND has been running like it stole something since coming public at $25 a few months back. Since then it has exploded to $235 ripping a lot of shorts' faces off.

1/ of 15 In the process, the borrow rate on shorting has soared. Right now it is clocking in at over 100%. That means for a short seller to make money they are facing a huge negative carry. At 100% that means the stock must decline by $0.64 everyday to BREAKEVEN.

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