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Dr Kevin Purcell 🇬🇧🇮🇪🇺🇸 Profile picture
Dr Kevin Purcell 🇬🇧🇮🇪🇺🇸
@kevinpurcell
Chemical Physics PhD @LivUni — Scientist, Programmer. Now in read-only mode, with the occasional reply, after the Muskian takeover. N7WIM, ex-G8UDP.
Jan 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
🧵 “In patients over 65 years, 143 deaths occurred among 1413 recently injected (10.12%) compared to 280 deaths among the 1413 unvaccinated (19.82%), odd ratio (OR) 0.46 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.36 to 0.57; P<0.001).”

Risk reduction of about half. “The most significant reduction in the death toll was observed among the 55 to 64 age group, with 8 deaths occurring among the 1322 recently injected (0.61%) compared to 43 deaths among the 1322 unvaccinated control (3.25%), OR 0.18 (95% CI, 0.07 to 0.39; P<0.001).”

> 5 times RR
Jan 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
This tweet won’t age well, I think.

Japan has done very well in keeping case counts low.

But omicron has 4 doublings in 10d or 2.5d doubling period from Jan 5 to Jan 15.

That looks like everywhere omicron has arrived and started to expand.

79% FV but under 1% booster doses 79% of the whole population are vaccinated but vaccinations slowed up at the end of October.

The most of the recently vaccinated are 3mo since dose 2.

The older ones are 6-7mo since dose 2.

Only 0.8% are boosted.

Japan with waned immunity looks to be “ideal” for omicron
Jan 14, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
After vaccination convalescent individuals generated more SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific memory B cells and variant-neutralizing antibodies and a distinct population of IFN-𝛾 and IL-10-expressing memory spike-specific CD4+ T cells than naive individuals. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… One important distinction to make is between 3 antigen exposures in PI + 2 doses in the 2 antigen exposures in naive fully vaccinated.

Adding a third doses changes the naive response to be closer to the PI + 2 but it’s not identical. Image
Jan 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
King County, WA

5224 cases on Thu Jan 13

1660 cases per 100,000 person weeks

So up a little from previous day but down a little from the weekend?

Are we on a plateau or are “day of the week” effects significant?

Hospitalizations steady. Image Seattle, WA

1540 cases on Thu Jan 13

1440 cases per 100,000 person weeks

Plateauing too? Or “day of the week effects”?

Just below the average for the last 7d

Hospitalizations steady. Image
Jan 3, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
“New important study by Florian Klein & Team klein-lab.de @UKKoeln shows that some people after SARS-CoV-2 infection have broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) against various SARS-CoV-2 variants & even against other coronaviruses form. 1/2” “Notably, serum neutralizing activity against the Omicron variant following booster immunization [3 doses] was even higher than neutralizing titers against Wu01 after two doses of BNT162b2 (GeoMean ID50 of 1,195 vs. 546; P=0.0003).”
Jan 2, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
“Immune histories with breakthrough infections can overcome the resistance to infection by the Omicron, with the vaccination-infection interval being the key determinant of the magnitude and breadth of neutralization.” medrxiv.org/content/10.110… “The Omicron was highly resistant to neutralization in fully vaccinated individuals without a history of breakthrough infections. In contrast, robust cross-neutralization against the Omicron were induced in vaccinees that experienced breakthrough infections.”

i.e. 2 doses not 3
Jan 2, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
“Starting Jan. 4, 2022, UW Medicine will limit COVID-19 testing appointments to people who are experiencing symptoms of a respiratory illness or those who have a known positive exposure to the virus”

In Seattle and Western WA state. king5.com/article/news/h… “The three community COVID-19 testing locations in Ballard, Sammamish and Seattle City Hall will temporarily close until positivity rates go down. Once the positive rates decrease, Baird said the testing sites will reopen.”

The floggings will continue until morale improves!
Dec 12, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Efficient mucosal antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is induced ONLY in previously infected individuals.

“Our results suggest that the level of mucosal SIgA responses induced by mRNA vaccination depend on pre-existing immunity” medrxiv.org/content/10.110… “Indeed, vaccination induced only a weak mucosal SIgA response in individuals without pre-existing mucosal antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 while SIgA induction after vaccination was efficient in COVID-19 survivors.”
Dec 11, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
They really are a Death Cult.

A Delta wave and an Omicron wave are incoming. “It will no longer investigate COVID cases, contact-trace, issue directives for exposed residents to quarantine themselves or make public announcements of case numbers and deaths.”

“Just 35% of the population [of Laclede Co] is fully vaccinated, compared with 52% of the state.”
Dec 11, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
B.1.1.529 escapes the majority of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies of diverse epitopes

“In total, over 85% of the tested NAbs are escaped by Omicron.”

😳 biorxiv.org/content/10.110… “NAbs could be unsupervised clustered into six epitope groups (A-F), which is highly concordant with knowledge-based structural classifications. Strikingly, various single mutations of Omicron could impair NAbs of [the 6] different epitope groups.”
Dec 10, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Err, wow 😳 Most cases in Glasgow and Lanarkshire to the SE of Glasgow.

Site of the initial known first introduction into Scotland.

Then radiating out from there?

Not so much in the periphery (The islands, The Borders, Dumfries), yet. Image
May 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“Chimeric spike mRNAs containing N-terminal domain (NTD), and receptor binding domains (RBD) induced high levels of broadly protective neutralizing antibodies against three high-risk sarbecoviruses: SARS-CoV, [SARS-CoV-2] RsSHC014, and WIV-1.” biorxiv.org/content/10.110… “In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination not only showed a 10 to >500-fold reduction in neutralizing titers against heterologous sarbecovirus strains, but SARS-CoV challenge in mice resulted in breakthrough infection including measurable lung pathology.”
May 7, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
“Following a rise in cases in the UK and evidence of community transmission, PHE has reclassified VUI-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2, classified as a Variant Under Investigation (VUI) on 28 April) as a Variant of Concern (VOC), now known as VOC-21APR-02.” gov.uk/government/new… “The cases are spread across the country, however, the majority of the cases are in 2 areas – the North West (predominantly Bolton) and London – and this is where we are seeing the greatest transmission.”

Areas with large Indian populations and so recent travel to India.
May 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Not by a little bit either:

“There were 16 candidates standing in the by-election, but Conservative Ms Mortimer won with 15,529 votes, while Labour’s Mr Williams received 8,589.” “Momentum co-chair Andrew Scattergood said: "A transformative socialist message has won in Hartlepool before, and it would have won again.”

Yeah. Right. That’s exactly what loosing 65% to 35% means. Because all the hard left stayed home. 🤔🙄🤷‍♂️
May 7, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“In a sign that getting vaccinated is becoming easy and routine, CVS pharmacies announced yesterday they will be allowing walk-in vaccine appointments at thousands of stores across the country.”

Or schedule same day appointments.

e.g. in WA state

seattlepi.com/coronavirus/ar… “The news comes a day after Safeway and Albertsons pharmacies announced people would no longer need appointments to get the vaccine at locations across Washington.”

seattlepi.com/coronavirus/ar…
May 7, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
“if high vaccination coverage is achieved and most of the country maintains a moderate adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including physical distancing.” The CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

“Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021”

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
May 6, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
“Arterial events, venous thromboembolism, thrombocytopenia, and bleeding after vaccination with Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1-S in Denmark and Norway: population based cohort study”

The one the Danish government used?

The cohort is limited to 18-65. 80% F.

bmj.com/content/373/bm… There is a inked editorial to this paper

“7 cases among 281 264 people vaccinated is a low absolute rate, but still 20 times the rate expected in the general population, and equivalent to an estimated 2.5 extra cases for every 100 000 people vaccinated.”

bmj.com/content/373/bm…
May 6, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
“Prashant Yadav, a supply chain expert and senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, said the biggest barrier to increasing the global vaccine supply is a lack of raw materials and facilities that manufacture the billions of doses the world needs statnews.com/2021/05/06/wai… “There are currently no generic vaccines primarily because there are hundreds of process steps involved in the manufacturing of vaccines, and thousands of check points for testing to assure the quality and consistency of manufacturing.”
May 6, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
“we show that the increase in frequency of a potentially more transmissible viral variant (614G) over time can potentially be explained by regional mobility differences and multiple introductions of 614G, but not the other variant (614D) into the state.” “The Washington State outbreak was caused by repeated introductions and shaped by temporal differences in mobility reductions”
Feb 22, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A random takeaway: a lot more old (> 65 years old) people are getting AZ vaccine rather than Pfizer in the UK.

Especially very old people 🤷‍♂️

The “young” tail, I presume, is healthcare workers.

An interesting test of efficacy in older people?

Preprint:

drive.google.com/file/d/162PJKb… For more on the Scottish study of people receiving both AZ and PB vaccines (initially mentioned in the Daily Mail, go figure) see this thread:

Aug 7, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
An interesting and carefully done piece of work on looking for SARS-CoV-2 in the air on a hospital patients room.

The found live virus, sequenced it and showed it was the same as the one the patient had.

There are a few caveats though. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… This was done in a hospital room with at least 1 sick patient.

If the patient was emitting aerosols was that by normal respiration/speaking or by coughing?

Is the aersol from a resuspension of virus emitted as drops or droplets?