1/5
A recession is likely — not just because of Trump’s tariffs, but because global demand is shaky, trade tensions are high, and financial markets are jittery.
The real danger isn’t just the downturn — it’s whether Malaysia has a Plan B to bounce back fast. 2/5
Malaysia’s vulnerabilities:

Heavy reliance on exports (esp. E&E, commodities)

Narrow tax base, limited fiscal space

Weak domestic wage and demand base

Politically fragmented governance
These make crisis recovery harder if we wait too long.

The Arithmetics is simple..

We borrow RM50 billions of Gov money or Gov Guaranteed loans ~ we get 20% returns on investment (like some superstar hedge funds) and within four years can repay all debts & keep the RM50b for ourselves.

Send some people for their Haj too. Then we get cheap land from Gov.
Get it hyped up with investment interest from the Middle East.
Get Gov to commit to spend RM100b on HSR and MRT.

Revalue the properties to yield tens of billions of capital gains.

Get a few billions of broker fees etc.

Easy money.

Dah confirm MRT3 construction cost of RM34b is too high ;

1) Gamuda CEO confirmed MRT cost is too high
2)Cost is 40% higher than the median cost of 600+ metros (transit cost project database)

Can shave RM10b by value engineering & better tender strategy.

@IsmailSabri60 Have to reconsider MRT3.

One million ridership only achieved in 2060.
4,000 buses can hit one million before 2030.

Note: with only 1000 buses and poor service , ridership is currently 400,000.

@IsmailSabri60 @anwaribrahim

"we will know the actual budget of MRT3 are contracts are awarded"

How many C,S & A contract packages?

"Three "

Do you expect that prices will be competitive with so few packages?

"It is open tender"

Will MRT3 still proceed if cost is higher than current RM50b budget? What is hybrid financing?

"Contractor will be paid via deferred payments"

Will they charge financing cost that is lower than Gov's cost of funds?

We are quite a wealthy country.
Our household wealth if distributed equally is RM500k to RM700k per household.
Our National Income if distributed equally will give each adult a monthly income of RM5,500.

That is the big picture. But the truth ~ wealth and income filters to the top leaving the bottom fighting for bones.

70% of income goes to the Top 40%

80% of wealth goes to the Top 20%

Obviously, our policies have failed.Enriching the few whilst leaving the majority far far behind.

I don't really understand this...

We need money to run the economy.
But if you have too much money & not supported by the "economics" , inflation can get really bad

But what is the threshold between good and bad?

And why have the curve been a lot steeper after Year 2000? Singapore have a much bigger economy than us but their money supply is at about our level.

When people are stuck in traffic jams , productivity is lost,fuel is wasted and emissions is higher.

The objective of public transport is to reduce traffic jams.

How to reduce traffic jams at the lowest cost is the objective. The first logical step is to reduce the number of cars on the road.

There are two big lies by Pemandu here;

1)MRT will save 280 million hours per year of travel time ie ZERO traffic jam in KL.
2)Value of travel time of RM85/hour ie an average salary of RM17,000 per month.

These are totally deceitful data to justify the MRT. There are two major deceits in this presentation;

1)They have not included other very big costs ie land,interest during construction & PDP fees ie which will double the indicated cost of the project.
2)The construction cost of RM36 million is way too low & a ridiculous estimate

Sapura is not exactly a basket case.Order book is healthy (but needs due diligence to ascertain profitability).Assets are good (on paper).Geographic coverage is global.

Operating margins looks healthy enough.

Employs about 3,400 ~ mainly professionals.
Wages is 20% of revenue No bailouts nor interim cashflow support.
If at all should be to take the company private at stripped out "real value".
No intangibles...

MRT2 Turnkey Contract cost ;
~Elevated : 38.8 km cost RM17.42 b ieRM450 mil/km
~Underground: 13.5 km cost RM13.1b ie RM970m/km

MRT3
Elevated 30km x RM450/km = RM13.5b
Underground 20km x RM970m/km = RM19.4b

Total.............RM32.9b
Inflation ~ say 12% , RM37b Total Project Cost RM billion ;

Construction : 37
Land. : 8 (MRT info)
IDC. : 11(MRT info)
PM overheads:??
Contingency. : ??

Total............: 56b
Gov budget. : 50b

Is RM31b inclusive of land acquisition,professional fees,project mgmt overheads & interest during construction.

The above can add up another 50% to construction cost.

https://twitter.com/theedgemalaysia/status/1503628851167244288

There should also be a contingency sum.Based on UK guidelines, the contingency sum (optimism bias) should be 66% at the early stage of a project ie before engineering details.

portal.triplc.com.my/hospital-uitm-…

RM599m development cost for a 400 bed teaching hospital
Subsequently,25 years asset management contract.

No details on payment for the Asset Management. ram.com.my/pressrelease/?…

The construction is financed by an RM639m sukuk.

Jakarta's minimum wage is RM1,352.

Their mandatory working hours is 40 hours/week ie 173 hours per month ~ thus their hourly rate is RM1,352 / 173 = RM7.81 / hour.

They have a mandatory 13th month pay which effectively increase their hourly rate to RM8.43.

8.43/5.77 = 1.46. I have simplified this calculation by not factoring the 1.5 multiplier for the additional 8 hours work per week.
Cos that seem to confuse too many people.

If I include , the 1.5 factor ~ the monthly minimum wage on apple to apple basis is RM1,900 ie 58% higher than our minwage

Each RM10 that you spend on buying "credit" , the actual cost incurred by the Telco is only RM4.60.

And their net profit after depreciation,interest and tax RM3.40.

Telco can give 50% discounts to students without much impact to bottom line. Current price of high speed data is about RM1 per GB.
Lets assume that a data limit of 10GB/month is enough for our students ~ price is RM10.

Telco actual cost is only RM5. Total number of students 6 mil.
Cost to Telcos is RM30M/mth if discounted to ALL students

The Covid Recovery for the low income is in 3 phases;

Phase 1 : Financial aid of RM500 to RM1000 per month

Phase 2 : Job Bank creating local jobs (for economic good rather than just financial profits) ~ RM1600/month pay
Phase3 : Permanent Jobs created via a Build Better Program The Financial Assistance & Job Bank Program must be coordinated by a Program team & involve all Aduns.

The Build Better Program must be managed by Program Director & a dedicated team seconded from various Ministries.

JP MorganChase
CEO wages : RM130M
JPM Profits : RM153B
Wages per billion profit is RM850,000

A Malaysian Bank
CEO Wages : RM8.5 M
Bank net profit : RM4.5B
Wages per billion profit is RM1.9 mil

MayBank CEO is paid DOUBLE of JPMorgan.
JPM is one of the world's biggest JPMorgan Chase is 5th biggest bank in the world ~ with a global footprint.
CEO Dimon is the highest paid banker in the USA
His high wages is widely criticised.

So it seems , a very2 much smaller bank in Malaysia pays the CEO double of Dimon.

And nobody even raised an eyebrow

The norm benchmark for affordable house price is 3 times annual median household income ~ for our case , would be about RM190K.

That is actually very unaffordable for many people. I prefer to use minimum wage as the benchmark.

The cheapest house should be about 6 times annual minimum wages ie RM85K.Next is 9 months ie RM130K and the Top is 12 times ie RM172K.

I am basing on Turkey's affordable housing ~ they are launching 100k units/year

"In a surprise twist, and despite mainstream economic narratives to the contrary, the people who keep the economy working for our survival and well-being are not at all the people who profit most from economic growth and consumerism."

GDP Growth is over rated. "Crucially, what is necessary for achieving well-being is the satisfaction of basic needs: not growth in consumption or economic activity. If our focus is the well-being of ourselves and other human beings, we should focus on sufficiency, rather than growth."

"Malaysia’s wealth per adult almost quadrupled from US$23,853 (RM99,180) in 2000 to US$93,004 (RM386,710) in 2018, the Credit Suisse databook showed."

Do you have a nett wealth of RM386K ?If u don't you are not average. "99.8 per cent Msian adults have a wealth that below RM4.16 million, with the bulk or 60.6 per cent with wealth below RM42,000, while 36.2 per cent have wealth of RM42K to RM420K, and three per cent at the higher wealth range of RM420,000-RM4.2 million."

The budget for LRT3 is RM9B.
This was confirmed by Najib's reply to a Parliamentary question & the Annual Report of one of the PDP consortium partner. And what were we expecting for the RM9B budget.For that we have to rely on the Detailed Environmental Impact Assessment Report released in Feb 2015

@jamian_said Budgets are a step by step process.But by the time you go out for tenders~and with engineering/tech details in place,it shud be plus minus 15%

Question:At which stage of the process was the LRT3 RM9B budget? @jamian_said UK Green Book have adopted Optimism Bias (glam word for Contingency) as part of the process.

Did the RM9B include Optimism Bias?