People keep asking why perp traders get wrecked even when markets look calm.

So we dug into the data.

3+ years of BTC perpetuals. Extreme Value Theory. The full statistical breakdown.

The numbers surprised even us.
Let us walk through it 🧵.

https://twitter.com/kingfisher_btc/status/1873070222879670650

Some context first.
We covered it here: x.com/kingfisher_btc…

Looking back then and at the past two weeks... seems important to remind everyone

We've all seen the cascades:
- Oct 2025: $19B gone in a day
- Feb 2026: $2.5B flushed at 15-month lows

But the interesting part isn't the size.

It's that the structure of liquidation risk has changed.

🤯 Ever wonder who REALLY controls Bitcoin's price? It's not what you think. Forget the idea of constant global trading. Let's expose the hidden forces moving this $1.86 TRILLION market...

A thread📷🧵 First, meet the "Market Makers."
They're like the market's cushion, providing liquidity and smoothing out small price bumps. Think of them as helpful bots keeping things stable. See those buy/sell orders?

That's mostly them.

Let's chat about a hot topic: over-leveraging in crypto markets. It's like the high-stakes world of poker, but with digital coins. 🃏💰

Ever heard the phrase "Don't bet the farm"? In crypto, this is crucial. Using too much leverage is like trying to run before you can walk. Sure, you might move faster, but you're way more likely to trip and fall. Hard. 😬

Here's the deal: leverage means you're borrowing money to amplify your trades. Think of it as a booster rocket. It can send your profits to the moon, but if it backfires, you're in for a crash landing. 🌑💥

Now, let's talk liquidation. This is the monster under the bed for traders. When your losses hit a critical point, your position is automatically closed. Poof! Gone. Like a bad magic trick. 🧙‍♂️✨

But fear not! Tools like The Kingfisher are here to be your market GPS. 🗺️🛰️ It's not just about showing you where the market's been; it's about illuminating the path ahead, showing you where the pitfalls and treasures are.

With @kingfisher_btc, you're like an explorer with a treasure map. It shows you the "liquidation clusters" - these are the danger zones where a lot of trades could go south quickly. Like spotting quicksand before you step in it. 🕵️‍♂️🪤

Think of it as your guide through the jungle of crypto trading. By avoiding these danger zones, you can make moves that are calculated, not just a roll of the dice. 🎲🚫

And here's the kicker: it's not just about avoiding danger. It's also about spotting opportunities. Like knowing the best place to pan for gold in a rushing river. 🏞️💎

Let's wrap this up: in the wild world of crypto, being informed is your best defense. Tools like @kingfisher_btc don't just help you avoid losing your shirt; they help you dress for success. So gear up, stay sharp, and happy trading! 🧠💼📈

What do you think? Are you using any tools to navigate these choppy crypto waters? Share your thoughts, strategies, or even your trading war stories! Let's learn from each other. 🗣️👥🤝

And stay tuned, we'll be posting more in-depth trading guides using thekingfisher. Meanwhile, stay ready for the weekend flush! ⬇️

https://x.com/kingfisher_btc/status/1773660867856314814

$ETH GEX+ update
Interpretation and how to read it ⬇️ How to read the GEX+ ?

Delta > 0 (blue-green) → dealers tend to trade against price action to stay hedged
Delta < 0 (purple-red) → dealers tend to trade along with price action to stay hedged
Delta = 0 (transparent) → Deltas are hedged, a major shift in price action is coming

Not your keys, not your coins.

What a black swan event could produce ?
What a potential depeg could lead to ?

Depeg could make all the DeFi run and liquidity dry.

Linear short USDT isn't cash
Cash is Coinbase and Kraken

Orderbook are weak, weak, weak. Bloody summer incoming🩸

Deribit Put OI

KF-GEX+: Gamma, Vanna, Exposure, and IV
A tale of cryptocurrencies' expected volatility

A 🧵

It all started with a research paper published by @SqueezeMetrics exposing the effect of Options Order Flow in traditional financial markets, how to calculate it, and what kind of decision one could take from it. We will try to break down the options jargon to a direct Profit and loss practical point of view.

$BTC March 13 2020 - Created PTSD to many traders.

Kingfisher wasn't public yet, algos were buying at 5200 and market kept collapsing.

Any leverage trade here was instant punishment, with 100M USD liquidation in the matching engine burning the orderbook fast, it was scary.

https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades/status/1370358214101925893

The main reason of this cascading liquidations was
- Bitmex Infra ME/Risk
- Hedge fund liquidation
- Long Convexity
- Degens Liqs
- Arbitrage traders liquidated

How to win ?

Over-Collateralization
Avoid Toxic Orderflow
Linear Contracts for Long

blog.bitmex.com/convexity-rekt…

The last two days have been liq hunting heavens
Across the markets, we've observed liquidations being very accurately picked up.

Over 770 trades were taken by the KF-OEMS over dozens of instruments. There's always a liq cluster about to get cleared somewhere Have a look at the survival probability of $BTC traders.
It shows that those high leverages clusters are fully getting cleared several times a day.