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Kyle Pomerleau Profile picture
Kyle Pomerleau
@kpomerleau
Tax Policy. Senior Fellow @AEI
Sep 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I didn't mean this to sound harsh. I think TPC does great work!

A few more comments:

1/ I think Marc is right and I definitely overstated my point.

I think it is useful from time-to-time to break out tables to see how certain taxes contribute to the overall result.

2/
Sep 28, 2021 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
New blog post with an online interactive w/ @Grant_Seiter

"How would the US corporate tax burden compare with those of other developed nations?"

aei.org/economics/how-… @Grant_Seiter In a forthcoming @AEI paper, I compare the US corporate tax burden under current law, the Biden administration’s proposal, and the House Ways and Means proposal to corporate tax codes in 36 OECD nations.
Sep 14, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
JCT Distributional analysis of Ways and Means tax proposals. Given temporary nature of some major proposals (the CTC expansion, primarily), the impact on low- and middle-income households depends on the year.
Feb 5, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Redoing thread to fix a spelling error:

Romney's proposal does, however, change the tax code in ways that raise and lower marginal rates for different people.

The overall effect on work incentives is more complex than just the isolated effect of the allowance.

1/ I think it's correct to say: enacting a child allowance in isolation would have little impact on work incentives.

Income effects are small. No phase-out. That's good.

2/
Feb 4, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Sen. Romney has released a big, serious proposal for a child allowance:

romney.senate.gov/sites/default/… It would provide $3,000 per child ($4,200 per child under 6), paid out monthly through the Social Security Administration.

Max benefit of $15,000 per year.

It would not be universal: it would phase-out for those with income over $200,000 ($400,000 married filing jointly).
Feb 3, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Biden's slightly more targeted proposal for $1,400 rebates would go to 87.9% of households.

This is down from 92.9% under his original proposal.

Not all that much more "targeted" I suppose.

washingtonpost.com/business/2021/… Compare this to the GOP proposal, which would send $1k checks ($500 for dependents) to with a 40k/80k threshold, which would go to ~71% of households.
Nov 10, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This tweet now in blog form:

"Expect tax legislation even with a Republican Senate"

aei.org/economics/expe… I think the conventional wisdom is right: Much of Biden's tax plan is not going anywhere with a Republican Senate.

I don't see Senate Rs signing onto a package that scales back their major legislative achievement.
Aug 17, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This research estimates that a one-degree increase in temperatures reduces GDP growth by between 0.15% and 0.25%

I don't know much about how these estimates are done, but these effects are significant if true. 1/ Put this into a little context.

When we model, say, Trump's tariffs, we estimate that the level of GDP declines by 0.6%. This means that eventually GDP is going to permanently be 0.6% lower than otherwise. The growth rate, however, doesn't permanently change 2/