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Kyla Scanlon Profile picture
Kyla Scanlon
@kylascan
All decisions made on the basis of incoming data and the balance of risks | Author of "In This Economy?” | KylaScanlonTeam@unitedtalent.com
2 subscribers
Jan 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The Fed is hiking 🏔️

Some thoughts around market avalanches, labor market billy goats, and the storm clouds on the horizon Full piece here kyla.substack.com/p/the-fed-is-h…
Sep 24, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The Fedconomy

I wrote about the Fed’s rate hike hammer - also, Treasuries freaked, ~40% of homeowners have no mortgage, bonds are somehow cooler than stocks, and ESG ponzi ImageImageImageImage Full article here kyla.substack.com/p/the-fedconomy
Jul 21, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
The world is changing

There are widening expectations between What Should Be and What Actually Is, as shown by the Energy Crisis, investment patterns and more. kyla.substack.com/p/the-changing… Experience: A difference between what we are used to and what is happening

Data: A difference between information, measurement, and interpretation

Emotion: There is no difference between grief and love.
Jun 18, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
The Fed is in charge of managing expectations.

But they could be losing control of the narrative as the economic dominoes continue to tip.

So what is going on?

kyla.substack.com/p/people-are-w… I made a tiktok discussing this - the fed can only do so much.
Mar 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A synthesis of everything that happened this week:

Examining financial warfare in the light of dollar dominance, the fall of Fortress Russia and its contagion, energy and ag markets (and inflation), Russian & US monetary policy, and the role of crypto

kyla.substack.com/p/financial-wa… If you prefer to listen, here is that link and the YouTube should be up this weekend (depending on my editing speed ugh)

open.spotify.com/episode/34R4Zl…
Feb 25, 2022 • 57 tweets • 18 min read
United Nations Security Council meeting starting

The Russian Federation presides as President.

Image United States: Russia chose to invade and has inflicted suffering on Ukraine and its own citizens. It has violated international law and the UN charter. There are attacks on kindergartens and orphanages.

More than 50,000 people have fled Ukraine in last 48 hours. Image
Feb 24, 2022 • 21 tweets • 3 min read
Biden sanctions on Russia - cutting off ~half of Russia's high tech imports, sanctioning banks (financially choking them + elites)

NATO more united, more determined than ever. "An attack on one is an attack on all."

Image Sending more forces to Germany, not sending forces to Ukraine but "defending NATO allies" Image
Feb 24, 2022 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
China is advising to avoid further escalation of tensions and said that they hoped everyone would stay "cool-headed and rational" and "address each other's security concerns". Will advocate for peace talks.

Image Putin on RT

"whoever tries to stand in our way or create threats for our country and people should know Russia's response will be immediate and lead you to consequences you have never encountered in your history."

Jan 26, 2022 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
The market is going through it

With the Fed meeting tomorrow, increased geopolitical risk, inflationary worries, and economic slowdowns all shaping the current environment -

here is everything that is going on right now (mostly) #1 Geopolitics

Russia is getting closer to invading Ukraine. China is flying around Taiwan. Central Asia is experiencing blackouts.

This leads to 1) uncertainty & 2) worries over energy supply

Russia = 1/3 of Europe's gas & Kazakhstan alone is ~18% of Bitcoin's hashrate
Oct 20, 2021 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
Volmaggedon and the Rise of Passive ✨

(Ft @SimplifyETFs) I own a target date mutual fund in my 401k

There is an interesting relationship between people like me (and many others) who passively invest in target date funds - and the larger market macrostructure. 

Brief TLDR of it all
Sep 22, 2021 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
Evergrande and the Debt Iceberg ✨one final 🧵

(Ft the $FRDM index) I wrote a brief explainer thursday of last week and wanted to expand upon that - not from the point of contagion, but rather the contagion of ~exposure~

kyla.substack.com/p/evergrande-a…
Aug 28, 2021 • 23 tweets • 7 min read
NFTs but make it 🪐🧠 with lessons from Marshall McLuhan, Isaiah Berlin, and the Enlightenment

Its about ✨owning the online✨ People are buying pictures of rocks
Aug 5, 2021 • 23 tweets • 7 min read
The China Crackdown and the Index-Fund-Manager Conundrum✨

(ft the $FRDM index) 🧵 As we all know China has been cracking down on various sectors for the past few months (most recently, gaming) but the list is quite expansive
Aug 3, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The history of BNPL:

"The single firm that did the most to bring the installment plan to the world was Singer Sewing Machines & their innovative credit plan... They were notorious for hard-sell “dollar down, dollar a week” tactics."

Singer walked so $SQ + Afterpay could run ImageImage "By the 1920s, economists were becoming aware of the growing role of mortgage finance in the American economy... “What does it mean that the number of mortgages on homes is increasing?” wondered census analysts in 1923. “Does it mean growing wealth or growing poverty?"" Image
Jul 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
"Amazon’s EBITDA increased ~$18bn in the past year alone, to ~$55bn.

By comparison, Walmart’s EBITDA is $36bn; Costco’s EBITDA is $8bn - Amazon’s one-year EBITDA *increase* is half of Walmart’s *total* EBITDA and twice Costco’s"

Another reminder Amazon is a behemoth 😩 "They’ve built an enormous network of fulfillment centers and have a $20+ bn annual R&D budget that only costs ~1.2% of its value."

"Amazon has 200mn Prime subscribers, whose membership generates $24 billion in cash (before they sell anything)."

🥲

supermarketnews.com/retail-financi…
Jul 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
is this:

elon testifying in Solar City trial

OR

wario bidding in the Super Mario 64 auction Image
Jun 10, 2021 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
Today 54 counterparties took $534.9b at the Fed's fixed rate repo✨

RRP explainer: Bop it, twist it, reverse repo it? 🧵(ik) 1/Disclaimer: I am not an RRP expert - this is my attempt (🚧) at an explanation.

I highly recommend @aRishisays @AnalystDC and @FedGuy12 for better content⭐️
Oct 16, 2020 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
MATH🧮

We live in the age of infinite information.

But having information doesn’t mean we know what to do with it.

This is the main issue w how we are taught math. 2/ Caitlin Flanagan called algebra stupid in this tweet- a sentiment many of us share!

Eric Weinstein (a Math Guy!) responded & listed out all the cool things that math encompasses

Eric is right. Math is incredible. So why do most of us hate it?

May 11, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ TikTok Algo Tweet Thread

The App That Knows You Better than You Know Yourself: An Analysis of the TikTok Algorithm

kylascanlon.com/2020/05/11/the… 2/ Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice & is an analysis about the underlying algorithm. I have no affliation w any social media company