How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouseCEA/status/12576802583645552642) If you have really noisy data, you could estimate a model to fit it closely, but that's likely to be overfitting (e.g. here, we don't *actually* think deaths are fluctuating so much). So instead, you have to make assumptions about what the data looks like absent the noise.
https://twitter.com/laurabronner/status/1177284463396556803To check for herding, I took the 18 polls released since Aug. 1, and simulated the standard deviation you'd expect based on the polling average and sample sizes. I compared that to the actual standard deviation of the polls, which turned out to be *a lot* smaller.