My BASE Case for where the puck is going next

Since Trump's win on 11/5, COIN and BTC have led the way forward (+70% and +16%, respectively). My bias remains in ETH and adjacent to a thread I wrote back in October around memecoins (following tweet), I believe that multiple points of strength are aligning for the BASE L2 ecosystem to:

- "win" the battle against competing L2s and even ETH MN itself as the de facto ecosystem of choice to house memes, consumers dApps and attention

- compete as the premier EVM-aligned ecosystem in parallel to SOL's "all-in-one" robust casino

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My core belief is simple; ETH is still an integral center of the digital asset ecosystem, with all & any spin-offs to-date reliant on two key principles to drive positive network effects:

a) the "underlying" coin must see relative strength to its competitors, and
b) the "underlying" coin must have "scarcity" (more on this later)

Therefore - in this race for attention - in most cases you are mostly betting on one coin (even if just a simplifying measure) to visualize strength. In the following weeks (and this has already started), you will see an argument made from the CT populace on why a given individual coin MAY win (SOL killer, meme) or why an app supported by a coin MAY win (utility-token, DEFI governance, etc).

I am here to present an argument for why a strong risk-adjusted option from today is to bet on the ecosystem WITHOUT a coin.

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In my view, the way BASE has organized itself creates the strongest potential for sustained adoption, with the double-edged sword being that it is likely reliant on an ETH resurgence.

However, given that I believe ETH is currently under-utilized - if/when relative value between BTC <> ETH <> SOL lifts over the coming weeks, there must & will be a sink to house this newly created & recycled wealth.

BASE should win this as:

1) The interconnection of "faucets" on BASE has greatly evolved this year - and is underappreciated,

2) BASE is of key strategic value to COIN, with an actual balance sheet to create support,

3) BASE has been battle-tested this year - and the response has been sterling

I have positioned myself accordingly and will discuss in the following thread what my rationale is, and the risks/mitigants involved in re-directing on-chain flows toward what I believe is the most vibrant playground: BASE. Thread below discussing memecoins and the environment they typically succeed in

The punchline is that low-cap memecoins typically offer uncorrelated returns, and that on-chain activity typically heats up pre- and post- periods of significant uncertainty

https://x.com/lazyvillager1/status/1846844712260350281

Why I think ETH is a highly asymmetric long here
(1 post, very simple, no thread)

I discussed the below on my stream yesterday (around $2700) but I believe very few people have thought about ETH (from a price perspective, not technical) more than I have from both sides (short & long). This is the first time I have bought a meaningful amount of spot ETH since 2021, and herein are the reasons:

1. Coinbase's +30% move on 11/6
Pent-up demand was clearly demonstrated yesterday with Trump winning: this logically follows given that coins (which have universal penetration) are better liquid proxies and +EV that can participate in price discovery going into, and around, Trump's election odds vs. the more binary bet that CB was.

CB is a US-domiciled Company where the unlocking of regulation is highly relevant. This pertains to not only developing novel revenue streams (perps in the US) and facilitating seigniorage <> BASE chain but also the primitive "easy" stuff - having consistent access to bank accounts, highly visible vendor OpEx, reliable cash collection methods - stuff that most companies take for granted otherwise.

Coinbase and its derivatives (staking, DeFi) are fundamentally most tied to Ethereum as a primitive - both in terms of price (more highly correlated than other assets) and ethos. This "lag" in price between CB <> ETH is the gap that I am targeting being lifted.

2. ETHA volumes and ETF expectations
With record ETHA volumes yesterday and today (with noticeable flows on both CB and Kraken), I believe ETF flows will be constructive. The flows do not have to be eye-popping as the reference benchmark is effectively zero. Over the last 2 weeks, cum'l flows have been ($75)M - and that is leading into the election with ETHBTC and ETHSOL eroding vastly over October. I believe that even modest flows - as long as they are continuous - will be enough to lift & generate back-end demand. ETH remains the only vehicle with an ETF product other than BTC where a) flows are visible and b) available for immediate injection.

3. Valuation gap
If we are to believe that Trump unlocks "new capital" coming in: we must ask whether or not this new capital verges more highly on the side of retail or institutional. Put in other words - why has "[this participant]" not participated yet?

I believe that ETH is the superior intersection for institutional entry - which is in some ways proven by its lack of appetite in the summer. New capital did not show up - which is more linked to the low seasonality and unwillingness to evaluate "digital silver" where fund managers were either taking vacations or rolling-off new decisions.

Today, Bitcoin is at its MC all-time high.
Solana breached a new MC all-time high today.

ETH is ~30% down from its 2024 high and ~45% down from its prior all-time high.

Trad evaluates opportunities in a different way than retail does. They search for two things: a) precedents and b) implied discounts. There will be individuals who look at price history amongst managers and relate: why has Ethereum slowed behind and does it deserve to be the only laggard here? In the air where everything else re-rates, I believe dry powder will be less comfortable bidding assets where value seems stretched vs the discount that ETH appears to be at.

4. Clearance of supply
The fulcrum of why I was short the ETH ETF in August was two reasons:

1) supply and cost basis from previous cycles did not have an organic opportunity to participate in 2024 given the rehashing of multiple LST/LRT farms (where ETH was staked) and,
2) most alt managers were heavily overweight ETH as beta to their benchmark (BTC).

When other assets (memes, SOL, etc) received a bid post-liquidation wick on 8/5, crypto-native funds were displaced and had to reorganize their emerging re-allocation strategy (which I believe now is heavily overweight SOL).

Today, I believe that most individuals/participants who remain in ETH are anchored to a vastly different price anchor than where BTC/SOL strategists are. It is by far the most challenged asset to-date, and where supply for other assets may form at reasonable junctures (at ATH, +5% from ATH, etc), existing ETH stewards are likely targeting terminal prices set much higher than today.

5. What the market has shown
Excitement about upcoming catalysts are splashy: - a surge in DeFi coins (all ETH-adjacent) looking for the cash flow switch - rumor-milling (underdiscussed in the midst of BTC ATH excitement) of "staking" enabled for the ETH ETF (which creates yield and aligned to the thread below which I wrote earlier this year)

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In summary, the reasons which I believe have led to ETH lagging this year - a poor showing on the ETH ETF from low seasonality, existing over-weight supply and in the midst of this unreasonable price expectations - are likely now reversed and can enable material price discovery.

ETH has been the most over-used short leg to hedge majors and alts after August, and this complacent positioning lays the groundwork to me for a violent repricing. I am hedging this with shorts elsewhere (persistent with my view on BTC's glass ceiling)
How Ethereum fits into a classical portfolio

https://x.com/lazyvillager1/status/1800647269345116288

The secret is out

Yes I am long ETH Am expecting a strong print this week

The Chicken or the Egg: The Trump Trade and Bitcoin's Glass Ceiling

This is a very long thread and intends to capture my iterative development around Bitcoin's price ascension since October 15th, and to re-affirm original views made around my guest appearance on @1000xPod.

Before we begin: I want to make this very clear. This is not suggesting you long or short any coin, especially as OI/positioning remains extremely crowded over the next week. It is extremely possible (would err toward even very likely) that we challenge an ATH, which could create significant right-tail effects. Specifically, I think managing a new short position from here could be very difficult. With that being said -

Today, I seek to define the nature and intensity of flows that have have since entered Bitcoin (+$250B in BTC and +$400B in total crypto market cap since $59K lows) since mid-October, and to characterize the capped capacity that I believe exists for Q4-24 (which I believe will not be meaningfully broken).

My belief is two-fold: 1) new money remains constrained (which is a necessary pre-requisite); the heavy inflows we have observed in the last 2 weeks are highly mercenary and 2) the excess liquidity necessary to create a blow-off top (like we saw in 2021) is not present.

However, I believe the following tenets are highly under-covered and under-discussed, namely for one reason: cupboard analysis is very lazy as it pertains to why price goes up, and generally only starts becoming active when price goes down.

What you must believe:
1) The direction of the election does not drive a price-dependent outcome; rather Bitcoin is currently being used as a liquid proxy to hedge a Trump win.

2) "Easing conditions" present today for manufacturing a new TOTAL-high is insufficient. The correlation of rates and other popular heuristics to faction liquidity is much weaker than popular rhetoric suggests, with signs pointing toward price ultimately being suppressed rather than price discovery. Rehashing What was Previously Said

When Bitcoin broke ~61/62K on Columbus weekend during Asia-hours, that triggered my desire to re-run the tape of events. And so from that week onward (presented on @1000xPod later) I predicted (and will summarize here) the following:

1) BTC.D increases (and BTC itself likely challenges $70K ahead of election result)

2) In parallel, majors and alts uniformly erode against BTC - as the mercenary capital in point 1) is interested in pursuing only BTC as a lever to hedge a Trump win

3) Initial flows (with the cost basis between 61-64) get taken out before the actual election itself, leaving newly directional (and speculative) capital in

4) Through the effect of 1 through 3, independent of whoever wins, Bitcoin sells off in the medium-term

And therefore I suggested being long BTC and short "everything else"

Stoic Strength: Memecoins and Their Role in Portfolio Construction

"Memecoin dominance" has been topical YTD, with premiums accruing to both new (WIF, PEPE, MOG and POPCAT to be coined herein as the "Big Four") and old (retention of value via DOGE and SHIB, return of 2021-borne BONK and FLOKI).

The emergence of this class prompts the following questions:
1) What is a realistic range for aggregated memecoin value as a digital asset class?
2) Is there a pattern we can template toward identifying the next large-cap memecoin?
3) Is there a way to construct a case for "responsible" deployment (re: "institutional" adoption)?

My belief is that despite gross (and likely invalid) targets set for certain populist coins, memecoins are, and will remain, a unique device that can push the frontier for what is considered acceptable risk/return beyond being a quickly diminishing slope of reflexivity:

I see sustainable actionability in two ways even without new money entering the ecosystem:
1. Continued cannabilization of market share from NFTs (a ~$70B market today) - a virtually identical product wrt inherent value (or lack thereof) and community expression
2. Providing an uncorrelated return wrt BTC / other asset buckets

If we are to believe that BTC has become a macro lever (to be expanded on in a separate piece), then the argument for non-correlated assets such as memecoins - specifically those under ~$1B - may be worthwhile levers in doing 2 things:
i) hedging liquid bets elsewhere
ii) enable lagging portfolios to "catch-up" Sizing the market: building a base case TAM

During 2021 with a much more robust credit cycle in place (both in- and extra-), we were able to witness significant valuation creep in the following facets:
1) DOGE/SHIB, and
2) NFTs (BAYC/PUNKS)

Specifically, the former comprising ~$100B of value with the latter fetching ~10-15B as Veblen representatives of how easy leverage and re-hypothecation manifests into secular bets around cults and communities

Currently, both collections trade at 4-6x less than their peaks - representing the gap of funds that exists today bridging 2021 and 2024, but also the democratization of economics since - more assets in each category are noteworthy than just singular pieces of scarcity value

In aggregate, there was likely $150-300B at any given time betting on a Next Buyer or an estimate of ~10-15% of all assets

Today, Forbes estimates, based on 250 named coins spanning down to a ~$6M meme (for reference, the fast-climbing GOAT is already #20 on this list) there is ~$58B sitting in the memecoin market. The actual number is likely larger wrt capital recycling via smaller memes & pump.fun regeneration so in total possibly can consider ~3-4% of total capitalization wagering on crypto assets.

Adding in NFT value today (diluted wrt where ETH/SOL are today), we are able to posture a ceiling where the entire space possibly has an add'l ~$40-100B to grow organically - and possibly more specifically for memecoins if NFTs continue to erode against - simply by re-organizing and displacing allocation today w/o the entry of new capital

This would represent ~2-3x expansion on organized value today as a whole, with specific expansion in any given coin highly variable depending on size & momentum

The Ethical Long: Cycles and Capital Formation

Since August 11th/12th, I began writing thoughts to capture my mental model around identifying inefficient capital allocation in crypto assets, and the market forces that drive positioning on the margin – which I believe is under-recognized today due to what has been a programmatic supply overhang (re: alt emissions, chunky BTC/ETH sellers).

The dislocation created by seemingly endless supply has resulted in four mass ~1B long liquidations this year, the most recent of which broke an 8-month BTC-trading range – which I interpret as a unique opportunity to challenge microstructure underpinning a) “flight to safety” positioning and b) decomposing what actually drives liquidity & markets.

My belief is that without new money: in a scenario where total available dollars available has shrunken vs. March & where previous-cycle ATHs have settled, order-book combativeness & psychology of the buyer vs. seller are the fulcrum underpinning how and why money moves

Herein, I seek to challenge the status-quo of what is considered the “safe” risk-barbell (BTC/SOL/Memes) by framing risk-reward in a structural way: starting at the majors and subsequently walking through the conditions that must be met to create a sustained trickle-down effect buoying alts, or specifically, “OTHERS.”

This is the result of my deep dive dissecting and reviewing L5Y price / volume / dilution history for 150+ names Chapter 1: Introduction

To start: I believe that BTC can only resolve in 2 directions from here:
i) BTCUSD: down uniformly, marking the cycle-end (~20-30% p-weigh)
ii) BTC.D: down and lagging capital returns against ALTS/OTHERS (~70-80% p-weigh)

Under i) – this needs to be explained in more nuance (which I seek to do below): in contrast to popular trains of thought, I believe that the outcome of BTC is both macro-agnostic and politically-agnostic: these 2 buckets are being far-more weighed than they should be as participants seek to retroactively precursor the future, and I will break open these preconceptions

Under ii), and supporting the punchline of what I believe: OTHERS – especially targeted ones with low liquidity, short-build up, unsavory tokenomics and correspondingly low resting OI – should receive a significant demand shock creating a market signal for a full-shift in the risk-reward spectrum. This will be done without a gearing narrative, and flow according to capital efficiency.

To me, the question we should all be asking is:

Where can one find the most efficient outcome from inserting $1 of flows relative to EV of wealth creation re: market cap. expansion?

With the subsequent question being:

Is this asset still BTC (best performing single asset YTD)? Why or why not?

Macro & The Ethereum Trade

This is a very long thread and intends to capture my iterative development around ETH from ~$3200. This is not suggesting you long or short ETH in any capacity, but rather my view on market forces & fundamental analysis underpinning flows

Today's conviction in ETH is borrowed. Most traders who are long ETH are either over-exposed and "need" it to do well given their blended cost basis or are simply taking a directional view from GCR

In June, I wrote about how I believe equities would top in Q3, with the subtlety that the ETH ETF could rally into it. You can find this in my highlights

I pivoted early July, becoming incredibly bearish on Ethereum and the ETH ETF, supported by a contrarian thesis around positioning, flows & game theory. I have shared the below with a small group, whilst iterating & refining

The last 3 weeks have been incredibly difficult to hold conviction, especially given my less than ideal management of the trade. At one point, I actually pivoted long for 8 hours on the day of the ETF launch, hoping to scalp an artificially-manufactured inflow # to push up before sustained flows bringing the trade down. That did not happen and so re-assumed short positioning after

What you must believe:
1) Germany exposed the fragility in crypto reflexivity (unprepared for significant downside move even if nominal - Germany $3B sold vs BTC $1.2T asset)

2) Massive ETH supply glut that have not organically participated in the cycle in actually determining FMV bc of interventionist protocols (LST/LRTs and then the ETH ETF bubble)

3) New money will not come in to backstop ETH to the degree it is being projected / priced in Executive Summary (7/15)

Not calling a top, think prices can still be ~10% higher but the hotter this local rally is, the more convinced I am that it's correct to be HTF bearish

The way I see the tape of events is that election flows are now being front-run - which I expected to happen later in the quarter - given the white swan of Trump effectively confirming his house victory via the shooting (and the subsequent nod to a pro-crypto VP)

The bull case for ETH to me was/is:
1) $ETH manifests as an institutional yield bet
2) $BTC and $COIN flows push toward $ETH
3) Net-negative positioning is caught off-side on major announcements (eg. 19b4, S1)

To address each one:

1) The lack of appetite to support the mid-range for $ETH & lack of ability to de-correlate strongly from BTC has shown that it's still being viewed uniformly. Given the disconnected move in equities (NDX/S&P have retraced open) the "bet" at this point for $ETH if you are layering a long, is that appetite out the gate outperforms consensus estimates. I don't think that will be the case

2) There is not enough money to prop up equities, BTC and ETH. As equities unravel, I think crypto basis $$ becomes "first-out" and think we have categorically under-estimated just how much of this $$ supporting BTC is propped up on this trade (which I believe has confluence with why BTC.D has been so dominant this cycle & why the market has been so hot)

3) ETH OI is up 200M units from the lows (+20%) vs the original 19b4 move (+25%). The playbook is the same: underperformers have no option to but to allocate to ETH / stay in the trade but to endure the volatility, a lot of the money is being recycled/borrowed

The lack of reaction around the S1 announcement is quite telling IMO (40 bps). Funds aren't eager to bid ETH because they are either:
a) holding down from the first move (average $3400 entry where they are B/E) and/or
b) didn't deploy at the lows and want to see confirmation around trading flows to justify a bid.

Therefore, they are bidding alts in the interim to catch some of the lagging reflexivity

I acquit there is a lot of noise because it's difficult to discern how systematic weakness really is given there was such a massive crypto-specific selling event recently eg. (Germany). A lot of the selling has also been happening during Asian hours as well (GOX selling) so there is the chance that we are discounting prior "bearish" events that, if understated, have the potential to create more mean recursion

But I think a lot of the add'l "catalysts" that people are trying to sell you on are extremely overstated (eg. FTX claims - the bulk of these claims are going to distressed buyers who are not crypto-inclined; rate cuts are bullish, etc)

The lynchpin behind this view, to be clear, is that equities have topped at least over the next 6-12M creating widespread defensive positioning. This thesis is completely invalidated if that does not persist to be the case

Essay: Making the Case for Ethereum

This essay is the culmination of pts 1-3 I have published, where I opine around:

Pt. 1: Timing of flows
Pt. 2: The merge of TradFi participants into CryptoFi
Pt. 3: Re-imagining "yield"

Punchline: I believe ETH is greatly misunderstood and mispriced, creating an opportunity to create a cheap risk-adjusted position relative to the pool of ALL publicly available-assets today

This mispricing exists because of:
i. Structural inefficiencies with public/private institutional-grade assets
ii. Pricing heuristics

Herein I seek to create the "what you must believe" to mechanically answer how an investment in ETH solves to be a superior alternative product consumable by a $130T fixed income market+

To begin with a keynote:

Marc Rowan from Apollo addresses back in 2023 the philosophy of creating a spectrum of products enabling "excess returns at every point along the risk-reward spectrum"



Private-public opportunities are emulsifying (the notion of "private = scary" is being debunked), and similarly, what is considered an acceptable returns threshold, and the HOW TO of creating said return is ALSO broadening

In pace with this - this slow, but eager, pool of capital available to deploy into a 8-12% asset is the DEMAND upon which there needs to be a custodian to SUPPLY: ideally not by a new proctor (eg. Celsius/FTX) but something trustworthy: a BlackRock or Fidelity

Why now:
The catalyst to remove this mispricing has happened via the ETH ETF as a policy signal likely directing the flow of permanent capital rather than the temporary debt-like capital that underpins crypto today

Extrapolating how this can magnify: we seek to increase our understanding of something by measuring it against other precedents

E.g.
"New memecoin" <- How does this compare to WIF?
"Bitcoin ETF" <- How did this compared to the gold ETF?
"Ethereum ETF" <- How did this compare to the Bitcoin ETF?

The search for symmetry - even where there may be none - is where opportunities are derived - this heuristic is lazy, but usually quite efficient

However, with ETH, I believe we are entering an unprecedented outcome where prior precedents are a poor retrofit given the separation in classification: BTC is observe as a fiat-hedge whereas ETH has the potential to be a retrograde self-sustaining yield product, able to displace significant commodities & bonds flow as a superior conduit

The pool of capital and window of opportunity, can be condensed very finely via the following:

1. Fast money moved to erase pricing inefficiencies (borne out of the perceived move seen prior with BTC ETFs)
2. Slow money - without any guardrails set in place today - will soon be able to buy ETH, and therefore participate in the value accrual of the underlying network, without actually using it
3. Toxic flows at open are materially lower than that, and the discount, associated with GBTC

ETH therefore represents an instrument borne of yield - opening up the book & risk appetite as an asset that fits in the alternatives playbook, helping bridge today's gap of "premium" assets (land, AGI, tech) that has already been bid up - meanwhile ETHBTC and ETH performance in general appears to be an unpriced & plausible local bottom

Thus, while global liquidity is at a crossroads - and private markets suffer from lagging, or even fraudulent mark-to-markets (office/industrial REITs), dislocation continues to exist amongst the typical debt-equity spectrum.

The average investor is "tapped out", with the age-old "60/40 portfolio" having been defunct for many years now: ETH very well may be the sovereign answer & I under-write that inflows will be priced accordingly as soon as the 1st domino dropsapollo.com/insights-news/… Pt. 1

https://x.com/lazyvillager1/status/1800637534122168621

Crypto Valleys is a play-to-earn game that has caught the attention of CT by storm, with 20K+ and 5K+ Followers and Active Users on Twitter & Discord, respectively.

I believe there is an emerging opportunity here, and opine around 1 way on "how to win."

See my printout here Background:

I am an investor full-time working at a Top 15 AUM shop.

Separately, I have played many of these gamified yield platforms in the past and have also papered threads around the economic theory underpinning "noding" which is the starter mechanism behind most of these games

https://twitter.com/lazyvillager1/status/1475432666908352520

1/ Some observations on $AVAX

This is not a trade because a trade requires timing

Note for the bookmarkers - this tilts bearish

Which pains me since I have very fond memories of $AVAX from the previous cycle

Hopefully someone can point out where I’m missing something 2/ We often hear the notion that price precedes narrative.

$AVAX is near the price it was in December going into the Bitcoin ETF, so one must ask Sisyphus - why are you pushing the rock?

Is $AVAX going to reclaim former heights? $100 incoming?

1/ An essay:
- Digesting risk as it pertains to your own life
- Parallels between investing & poker (or other zero-sum games)
- My big bet (hint: AI x Crypto)

Some theory by a former banker and current investor 2/ First - a diatribe. I find that many of us are quite competent when evaluating career risk. We are able to easily contrast the value of our time when we can qualify it via an hourly rate or what someone else is being paid.

We are much worse when it comes to assessing...

(1/x)

gm this is my exit from stealth post; my last long-form essay was ~2 years ago

during this time I have continued to work in TradFi; I currently work in an UMM/MF tac opps strategy in NY

i pen some thoughts here on where I see institutional flows novel to crypto (2/x)

as a reminder, i use CT as a journal, specifically wrt the lens of how i see the world

eg.

vs nodes:

vs bad mgrs:

vs late pivots t-backeds:

vs snowdog (@satsdart's rug):

https://twitter.com/lazyvillager1/status/1475432666908352520

https://twitter.com/lazyvillager1/status/1494826677456625666

https://twitter.com/lazyvillager1/status/1483289855652241408

https://twitter.com/lazyvillager1/status/1462444736568987649

Good thread but think it's more simple than this (can't believe it's me the one saying this of all people)

BTC > ETH is being selected as BTC is more dogmatically positioned as being as a virtual reserve currency

@terra_money is attempting to create a 2022 Silk Road

https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1510368365805772803

@stablekwon understands that a currency's inherent value is driven by a) immutability and b) divisibility

BTC contextualizes UST as contemporary USD akin to vaulted gold (digital in this case) per the previous world order

1/ My thoughts on $APE as a response to @DegenSpartan's prompt on why this is gaining so much momentum

I took a long position twice - today at ~$8.50 (exited at $11.20 on a stop) and re-entered just now at $12.50 2/ To contextualize - in less exotic M&A markets, multiples help drive valuation - but we often see an incorrect application of them in the metaverse/Web3

Ex. "market cap of a token trades at x and b token trades at x/y so this can be a y profit multiple" opp - we see this often

1/ @danielesesta announced today that $TIME is exiting the (3,3) space and pivoting toward the SPAC model

As a former investment banker, I've worked on SPAC transactions & pitches, and have friends who work in business dev. at such co's post de-SPAC

Herein lies my thoughts: 2/ The key questions that I think people want answered are (and what I will attempt to do) are:

- What is a SPAC?
- What are risks involved w/ this move?
- Will this move be healthy for the protocol?
- Are t-backed coins actually dying / was this necessary?

1/ If you're running institutional capital and you whaled the (very successful) @Battleboobas launch, let me help you out with your Q4 2021 Quarterly Report to LP's 2/ "Holding "NFT: Booba's" at cost. We anticipate NFT volume on AVAX marketplace to grow ~25-30% quarter over quarter, which Booba's, given branding and art targeted to surging demographic (male, aged 18-35), should capture....

1/ To start the year in 2022, wanted to share a few musings on:

- the psychology of crypto and de-coupling performance from identity
- getting addicted to being over-active
- why copy-trading isn't a winning strategy

This is a follow-up to a request that a follower made 2/ Not a standard l/s thread.

A caveat: I am not a full-time daytrader or someone w/ godly PnL. Like most of you, I work a 9-5 (or in my profession, more like a 9-9+) and view crypto as an add'l source of income

1/ BIG THREAD 3 - I am about to kill all node projects.

I don't normally ask for RTs but if you like this, please share/comment/etc so we can STOP THE CAP.

Have been tweeting against nodes for ~ a month now and I'm getting increasingly frustrated by seeing CT $$ burned to zero 2/ I usually provide a financial model - but this time, none is needed. 2 reasons:

1) I want to make this palatable and as easy as possible to digest. No analogies, no projections and no ranges.

2) Imprecision w/ projections due to high variation in reward payout ratio, etc.

Really impressed by the @firatinsayfasi NFT drop. Saw @el33th4xor (AVAX founder) had one & had to cop (my PFP). Convinced some friends to buy some and think we now own ~250 combined.

No Twitter, Disc or TG. No advertising.

5,000 mints sold out <12 hours on a Christmas launch! @firatinsayfasi @el33th4xor Great volume to back it up as well. Anticipate this being the highest volume NFT for at least another week or so.

Source: avaxnftstats.com

1/ UPDATE:

Today marks the 1-month anniversary since I made my first tweet - very grateful for my audience and the opportunity to publish thoughts & research.

I also wanted to share thoughts on my brand (and perhaps this may be useful for others who want to start writing too) 2/ As I think about my positioning (what do I do different? how do I add value?) amongst others on CT, I think my platform is centered around:

- merging traditional finance theory w/ a rapidly changing DeFi landscape
- digesting macro themes and iterating/refining in prose

1/ An analogy:

There are 50 lemonade sellers in your area. They all offer you the opportunity to cut you a % on subsequent capital raised until/if you break-even; thereafter, you get some % of lifetime royalties. Assuming you want to be in lemonade, which one do you invest in? 2/ Well, you might compare traffic - which lemonade stand is on a block that generates the most traffic?

You could also evaluate the lemonnomics and calculate which stand's proposition gives higher basis points