2022 was the year when risk-off Treasuries failed to counter risk-on stocks as a hedge against volatility.

2025 could be the flight-to-safety trade back into Treasuries finally returns.

If I’m right, the ATAC Credit Rotation ETF $JOJO can potentially benefit.

🧵👇 (1/10) First, allow me to clarify that all of my rules-based Funds are separate from my research (The Lead-Lag Report).

Rules-based means the Funds are not based on my discretionary thinking.

Tweets around my Funds ($JOJO, $RORO, $ATACX) require compliance review and approval. (2/10)

2022 was the year when risk-off Treasuries failed to counter risk-on stocks as a hedge against volatility.

2025 could be the flight-to-safety trade back into Treasuries finally returns.

If I’m right, the ATAC Credit Rotation ETF $JOJO can potentially benefit.

🧵👇 (1/10) First, allow me to clarify that all of my rules-based Funds are separate from my research (The Lead-Lag Report).

Rules-based means the Funds are not based on my discretionary thinking.

Tweets around my Funds ( $JOJO, $RORO, $ATACX) require compliance review and approval. (2/10)

In July of 2023, I embarked on a life-changing journey that led me to lose 100 pounds and transform my health.

This thread details my experience with various fasting methods, intense workouts, and strategic supplementation.

You are about to understand this.

Few.

🧵👇 1/ First - why?

What was my motivation?

A desire to take control of my health and witness the direct impact of my efforts.

No one can control the value of their portfolios.

If they could, no one would ever have a down day.

But you CAN control health through discipline.

2022 was the year of duration risk, when risk-off Treasuries failed to counter risk-on assets.

2024 could be the year a credit event takes place.

If I’m right about the reverse carry trade, the ATAC Credit Rotation ETF $JOJO can potentially benefit.

A 🧵👇 (1/10) First, allow me to clarify that all of my rules-based Funds are separate from my research (The Lead-Lag Report).

Rules-based means the Funds are not based on my discretionary thinking.

Tweets around my Funds ( $JOJO, $RORO, $ATACX) require compliance review and approval. (2/10)

I lost nearly 100 pounds over a year through fasting.

I take multiple supplements daily during these fasts, regardless of whether I’m doing OMAD (One Meal A Day) or extended fasting (3-7 days of no food).

Let’s talk about why I take Ashwagandha.

Thread.

🧵👇 1/ This ancient Ayurvedic herb has been used for centuries to promote overall health and well-being. Let's explore how it can support your intermittent fasting goals, especially for OMAD and multi-day fasts.

2022 was the year of duration risk, when risk-off Treasuries failed to counter risk-on assets.

2024 could be the year a credit event takes place.

If I’m right about the reverse carry trade, the ATAC Credit Rotation ETF $JOJO can potentially benefit.

A 🧵👇 (1/10) First, allow me to clarify that all of my rules-based Funds are separate from my research (The Lead-Lag Report).

Rules-based means the Funds are not based on my discretionary thinking.

Tweets around my Funds ( $JOJO, $RORO, $ATACX) require compliance review and approval. (2/10)

I lost nearly 100 pounds over a year through fasting.

I take multiple supplements daily during these fasts, regardless of whether I’m doing OMAD (One Meal A Day) or extended fasting (3-7 days of no food).

Let’s talk about why I take Omega-3 Fish Oil.

Thread.

🧵👇 1/ Omega-3s, particularly EPA and DHA, are essential fatty acids that support overall health. They're crucial for brain function, heart health, and reducing inflammation.

I lost nearly 100 pounds over a year through fasting.

I take multiple supplements daily during these fasts, regardless of whether I’m doing OMAD (One Meal A Day) or extended fasting (3-7 days of no food).

Let’s talk about why I take Acetyl L-Carnitine (ALC).

Thread.

🧵👇 1/ Acetyl L-Carnitine (ALC) enhances fat metabolism by shuttling fatty acids into mitochondria for energy production. During fasting, this process is amplified, potentially boosting weight loss efforts. Studies show ALC supplementation can increase fat oxidation by up to 22%

In the span of about 8 months, I lost 90 pounds, added muscle, and turned the biological clock back in time.

How did I do it?

How can you?

Thread. 1/ I did not relent.

Allow me to be very clear.

A thread.

🧵 👇 1/ $NVDA is fucked,

🚀Breaking down the ADP Employment Change - a key economic indicator that's just plunged by -51.42% YoY! Let's dive into what this means for us all.🧵👇 1/ First, let's understand the ADP Employment Change. It's a measure of non-farm private employment changes based on payroll data from ADP. It's a significant barometer of the overall economic health💼📈

US Consumer Price Index YoY is now at 3.24%, lower than the long-term average of 3.28%.

A looming deflation risk? 🤔

Let's dive into this complex issue in the following thread. 🧵👇 1/ First, let's understand the numbers: CPI YoY is at 3.24%, down from 3.70% last month and 7.75% last year. In simpler terms, prices are rising, but at a slower pace than previously.

Did you know that Lumber is a 🔑 indicator for the stock market, housing, and even credit creation? 🏠

Let's dive deeper into why it matters, how it can signal high volatility in equities, and can warn of conditions favoring a stock market crash, and bear market.

🧵👇 1/ First, let's understand the connection between Lumber, housing, and credit creation. 🌲

As a primary material for construction, Lumber prices directly reflect the state of the housing market.

Even if you post from your mother's basement, Lumber is all around you.

On October 27 last week, I said I believed this week we could see circuit breakers get triggered for the stock market.

Instead, it was one of the most incredible surges we've seen in some time.

What happened?

An important thread.

🧵👇 1/ I was wrong.

I love these trolls who are making fun of Lumber relative to Gold AS THEY POST FROM THEIR MOTHER'S HOUSE.

Lumber is a KEY indicator for the stock market, housing, and credit creation.

Let's dive deeper into why it matters and why these children are absolutely fucked.

👇🧵 1/ First, let's understand the connection between Lumber, housing, and credit creation. As a primary material for construction, Lumber prices directly reflect the state of the housing market.

They are FACTUALLY correlated to housing starts, a LEADING indicator of the economy.

Utilities are the most important sector of all to watch.

Utilities warn of high volatility and risk-off sequences on average.

The 2014 Dow Award winning paper "An Intermarket Approach to Beta Rotation" proves this.

This isn't about squiggly lines.

A massive thread.

👇🧵 1/ Buy and hold is often touted as the ultimate investment strategy when it comes to stock market investing. The reasoning for this relates to the belief in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that because all known information is factored into price, there is largely no edge to active and dynamic trading. Indeed, numerous studies have documented the inability of investment managers benchmarked to a market average to consistently outperform passive strategies through stock selection. However, academic studies have also noted persistent anomalies and phenomena in the marketplace which are consistent and exploitable, putting the Efficient Market Hypothesis in doubt. Many of these studies focus on momentum and seasonality, and tend to be of intense interest for technical traders.

However, long before the power of momentum and seasonality was discovered through various white papers on those subjects, market technicians intuitively noticed price behavior which could lead broad market averages. Using intermarket analysis, a branch of technical analysis that has grown tremendously in recent years, technicians have uncovered relationships between asset classes which can be predictive of economic and market cycles. One of the more recognized relationships is between bonds and stocks, where bonds tend to lead preceding equity market tops and bottoms. It stands to reason then, that Utilities, the most bond-like sector of the stock market, would also show such leadership characteristics.

John Murphy, winner of the 2002 MTA Annual Award and a pioneer in the field of intermarket analysis, explored this concept in depth. Murphy has stated that prior to a stock market top the “interest rate sensitive stocks, like the utilities and banks, usually start to break down. The most prominent and reliable are the utilities.” Martin Pring, winner of the 2004 MTA Annual Award and also an innovator in the field of intermarket analysis, wrote of the “tendency” for Utilities to “put on their best performance relative to the market on either side of the bear market low.”

Edson Gould was another technician who wrote of the power of Utilities many years earlier. Gould, who was referenced in 1977 as the “dean of technicians” by Forbes magazine and received the MTA Annual Award in 1975, focused specifically on the lead-lag (Few.) relationship between Utilities and the market. In his 1974 writing, Gould referred to the Dow Jones Utilities Average as “one of the best early indicators of the stock market.”

By noting how Utilities price action moved, Gould was able to make several accurate broad market forecasts. He postulated that “the Utilities reflect to a greater extent than the Industrials the investment demand for stock” and argued that “Utilities are money sensitive. Their steady growth requires huge and insistent capital investment so that their position and outlook is more dependent on interest and capital rate changes than are Industrial shares.”

The observations of Murphy, Pring, and Gould relating to the Utilities sector provided a roadmap for us to quantitatively test if Utilities lead broad stock averages over multiple market cycles. In this thread, I'll illustrate the results of that test, documenting the persistent and exploitable industry momentum in the Utilities sector relative to the broad market. We find that a strategy which positions either into the Utilities sector or the broad stock market based on leadership significantly outperforms a buy and hold strategy of both. In addition, we note that strength in the Utilities sector increases the probability of experiencing near-term fat tail events and higher overall stock market volatility. We also explore seasonality and find that the “sell in May and go away” strategy may be largely explained through beta rotation during summer and fall months. Finally, we illustrate how to execute the strategy today using Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) as the vehicle of choice.

Our findings are consistent with other studies which reference sector momentum and the gradual diffusion of information across and within markets, a major component of intermarket analysis. However, to our knowledge, no study has yet to quantifiably show how to outperform the stock market through Utilities rotation over time, nor has one explored the signaling power of low beta leadership as a leading indicator of heightened volatility.

I will not relent until conditions change.

I said at the start of the year this would be a melt-up year, but that a credit event is out there.

I think we are closer than ever.

And multiple data points agree.

Everyone is all-in.

And you're fucked.

A thread.

🧵👇 1/ I said this before, and I'm saying it again.

I do NOT believe in making a “call” on stocks.

I believe conditions are everything.

Conditions dictate probabilities.

Probabilities dictate outcome.

Before I sleep, I wanted to put together a thread wrapping up my thoughts.

Promise this is worth the time given how much I’ve reflected on it.

👇🧵 1/ $NVDA IS STILL FUCKED.

This isn't a new bull market.

This is the longest and most deceptive bear market rally in history.

Risk-off will return.

It always does. And no FinTwit, I am NOT a perma-bear.

OH MY GOD THIS IS FUCKING AMAZING

https://twitter.com/lionvestgroup/status/1669517729043210242

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣Few.🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

In 1987, you had a melt-up.

In 1987, you had a crash.

In 1987, you had a Fed pivot.

Year-to-date, $QQQ is up 37%.

As this point in 1987, $DJIA was up 25%.

Correlation of 0.74.

The overconfidence and sentiment today I suspect is exactly like 1987.

Will history repeat? Want to learn more about risk triggers and key macro developments?

Subscribe to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack📷

Visit leadlagreport.substack.com, and don't forget to share this tweet with fellow investors and traders.