Final polling average for the German election tomorrow. The polls in the last few week have been relatively constant*. The conservative CDU/CSU is expected to come first with around 30% (compared to 24% in 2021), the far-right AfD is expected to double from 10% to 20-21%. The current government parties are expected to do poorly, with the Social Democrats falling to 15% (from 26%) and the liberal FDP struggling to hit the 5% threshold that would get them into parliament. The Greens are at 12.5%, which is a little under the 14.7% they had in 2021.

Some precincts in the Atlanta area have flagged as fully reporting even though they clearly aren't done yet. We're not letting those precincts into our model, which is probably slightly inflating the uncertainty. That's better than letting bad data into our model.