Leonardo Carella 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Doctoral candidate in Politics, @UniofOxford.
Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture Malta Network Resources #SaveLegendsOfTomorrow Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
Apr 11 13 tweets 3 min read
The radical right is a permanent fixture of European politics. Not the expression of a passing rage, a reaction to this or that specific failure. It won't be eliminated by a social programme or an immigration policy. At the same time, it's not an unstoppable, ever-growing wave. Roughly thirty percent of any given population are "authoritarians". They're not monsters, they're people who attach a strong importance to uniformity - and there's often very little they or anyone else can do about it. We cannot make our politics about their political exclusion.
Apr 10 29 tweets 5 min read
IPSOS projection: Macron 28.1, Le Pen 23.3. Now you can all breathe. But perhaps more extraordinary is what is happening down here. Melenchon at 20.1%, so technically still with an outside chance. Zemmour, once polling second, has crashed to 7%. Pécresse at 5% is doing worse than François Hamon last year. LR are dead.
Apr 10 8 tweets 3 min read
Turnout at 12h for the French Presidential election stands at 25.5%, down 3pt from 2017. Paris down to 15.3% from 24.2% in 2017 (Macron came first by 10 pts), and its exurb of Seine-Saint-Denis down to 14.7% from 23.9% in 2017 (Mélenchon came first here by 10 pts). Le Pen's strongholds are a mixed bag, but Pas-de-Calais stands out:

Aisne turnout at 12 is 22.9 % (down from 27.6%), MLP17 vote: 35.6.
Pas-de-Calais 29.2% (up from 23.4%) MLP17 vote: 34.3.
Haute-Marne 26% (35%) MLP17 vote: 33.2.
Ardennes 24.0% (24.3%) MLP17 vote: 32.4.
Jan 21 49 tweets 16 min read
🇮🇹 🚨 Italian President of the Republic Election Megathread 🚨 🇮🇹

(1) why this election matters.
(2) how the President is elected.
(3) what's the balance of power and what parties want.
(4) who are some of the possible choices.

Brace yourselves. From Monday, Italy's Parliament will start voting to elect the next Presidente della Repubblica (PdR), who will succeed Sergio Mattarella to serve for a seven-year term. It’s one of the most significant and intriguing moments in the parliamentary calendar. Why does it matter? /1
Oct 3, 2021 19 tweets 10 min read
All the countries "tipped to leave the EU", according to the Daily Express. 🧵 Bulgaria 🇧🇬
Oct 3, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Over 1,300 Italian municipalities will vote tomorrow in the first round of mayoral elections. In the most prized races - Rome, Milan, Turin and Naples - the centre-left is favoured to win. This is because its vote has become massively urban: specifically, a "city centre" vote. The maps above show the winning coalition margin by ward (red = centre-left, blue = centre-right, yellow = M5S) in the 2019 EU elections.

Currently the centre-left governs only in Milan, while M5S administers Rome and Turin, and Naples has an independent left mayor.
Oct 1, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
This will do virtually nothing about immigration, while making it harder and more expensive for older Italians - who tend to travel with their ID cards, now all valid for international travel - to visit their relatives in the UK. Tinkering with rules for tinkering’s sake. “We don’t just hate foreigners, we also hate their money” is the only plausible rationale for this idiocy. For any one fake ID entry, there’s something in the scale of tens of thousands of European kids who will just go to Ireland for their pointless language courses instead.
Sep 10, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
Benford’s law is the observation that in many real-world datasets the frequency of leading digits (e.g. the digit 4 in 4982 or 43) follows a regular pattern whereby numbers starting with the digit D will appear with probability P(D) = log_10(D+1) – log_10(D), as in this table: /1 Why do smaller leading digits appear more often? Because real-world data describes phenomena where numbers grow from each other by some power. Eg if I have a 20% monthly interest rate on a £10 pound, it will grow 10, 12, 14.4, 17.3, 24.9, 29.9, 35.8, 43, 51.6, 61.9, 74.3, 89.1 /2
May 29, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read
My two cents on the Piketty income/education graphs. Last summer I was working on a project on the changing values of income and education groups. A lot of the change in the political behaviour of graduates is due to the change in size and composition of the education groups. I'm agnostic on the Piketty thesis, which obviously in some form has teeth. But the type of people who'd go on to get the highest levels of qualifications in 1970 - the 'old' elites - are radically different from those who did in the 2010s - a more demographically diverse group.
May 9, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
If Labour wants to stand athwart the forces of realignment, yelling "stop", they're welcome to it. Virtually no social democratic party did it successfully, and it's unlikely that the trick will work in a FPTP system, which already has a number of anti-Left biases. (1) The alternative is riding the beast. They can be the party of the squeezed middle, the young at the receiving end of generational inequality and climate change, liberals and ethnic minorities facing an onslaught from the new right, service workers who keep the economy going. (2)
Mar 27, 2021 15 tweets 5 min read
There seems to be some confusion as to what effect ALBA will have on the distribution of seats in the Scottish Parliament. As teased yesterday, I’ve built a toy model to illustrate that the answer is unambiguously “it depends”. 🧵🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 /1 Depends on what? On a number of things, but specifically (1) on the performance of ALBA itself, which may be either a drag or a bonus for the pro-indy camp, (2) on *where* ALBA is getting list votes from, and (3) on the overall performance of the indy camp. /2
Mar 26, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
I regret to announce that instead of doing my actual job or enjoying my Friday evening, I've built an R model to simulate how ALBA performance in the lists would affect the distribution of seats conditional on SNP performance in the constituencies and Green/SNP transfers to ALBA. A snippet (clean code and more stuff tomorrow): on a good night for the SNP (in which they'd win 62 constituencies: uniform swing on latest BMG poll), ALBA would waste pro-indy votes as long as it stays between 1.5 and 5%. After that 'slump', ALBA starts benefiting the indy camp.
Mar 19, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
Europe has a science problem.

56% of French and 17% of Italians have used homeopathy, which is considered a medication under the law in those countries. There is no evidence, anywhere, in the scientific literature that homeopathy is any better than a placebo. Glyphosate was declared non-carcinogenic by the EU's EFSA and ECHA, as well as the US's EPA. It's the most used weedkiller in the world and it's crucial to ensure reliable food production. It's banned in France, the Netherlands and Austria.
Mar 11, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Ogni giorno in Italia muoiono ~2000 persone. La probabilità di morire per un individuo in un giorno è quindi 2k/60m in media. Se 150k persone ricevono il vaccino in un giorno, ci si aspetta che 150k*(2k/60m) = 5 persone muoiano nello stesso giorno in cui vengono vaccinate. Le morti di infarto sono circa 120k all'anno, quindi circa 330 al giorno. Quindi ci si dovrebbe aspettare che 150k*(2k/60m) = 0.825 ≈ 1 persona muoia d'infarto nello stesso giorno in cui viene vaccinata.
Feb 27, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
On a first read of Worlds of Welfare, students often have troubles figuring out what it means that the conservative (continental European) welfare systems are hierarchical and status-differentiating. The Italian vaccination programme is set to become the new canonical example. "Sicily: trainee lawyers also included among priority groups" catania.liveuniversity.it/2021/02/26/vac…
Feb 25, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
I am terrified at the potential mess they could make of House of Dragons. The Dance of the Dragons is great raw material, but it doesn't come with extensive source dialogue, and lends itself to the temptation of going full-on CGI at the expense of the (highly complex) plot. The fact that the two main characters - Rhaenyra and Alicent - are Strong Female Leads™ also comes with the risk of repeating the mistakes of the Dornish plot, where insistence on the Girl Power stuff is just one-note and results in flat, unlikeable characters.
Jan 8, 2021 24 tweets 4 min read
A word of caution: many aspects of the social, political and informational mess that led to extremists storming the US Capitol are present in Western Europe too. (1) I. Political Violence

Wednesday didn’t happen in a vacuum: it happened in a context of rising right-wing terrorism, aimed at their adversaries in the elite (pipe bombs mailed to Obama, Biden, Clinton, DNC) and among the public (Charlottesville, El Paso, Pittsburgh, Charleston).
Jan 6, 2021 4 tweets 4 min read
hey @tomhfh your fan club is angery ImageImageImageImage me reaping me sowing @tomhfh ImageImageImageImage
Nov 9, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
There's an interesting PhD on the politics of whiteness to be written on the electoral shifts in 2016 and 2020 in (1) Scots-Irish areas in Appalachia, (2) German-Scandinavian areas in the Midwest, and (3) 20th century Irish-Polish-Italian white migration areas in the Northeast. Image This is what the arrow map looked like in 2016.

Basically, Trump overperformed *again* in 2020 in the places where he did best in 2016 (Appalachia), and fell back in the places where in 2016 he overperformed only slightly (Midwest) or just barely (Northeast). Image
Nov 7, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
Now for some poli-sci victory laps.

The 'citizen forecast', the favourite model of all quacks based on asking people "who do you think is going to win?", had Trump winning 334 Electoral college votes. Helmuth Norpoth's primary model, the favourite of all bad-faith partisan journalists with too much time on their hands, which is based on performance in early primaries, had Trump with 91% chances of winning the election.
Nov 6, 2020 16 tweets 4 min read
Dumb British leftists confidently predicting that Biden would lose to Trump, a thread (1) (2) Image