CTO & Sr. Fundamental Analyst @ https://t.co/aUFOoRVAPO & Co-Creator of the TaiFu™ 30 Cryptocurrency Market Index at https://t.co/Kdoc5CQtEu. Not financial advice.
Jan 9, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
We are starting to DCA'ing back into the markets. The time is now! 🚀 Even though, I think there's a good probability we have another leg down toward's <$13K, I am not certain. Just like we were wrong about $100K BTC and $10K ETH, I could be wrong on the downside as well.
In the bull market, we sold and took profits even though we were still bullish and expected BTC $100K. Conversely, in bear markets, we buy even as we think the markets will continue down. We DCA sell in bull markets and DCA buy in bear markets.
Nov 27, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
We can already see this is true. Millions gave up their BTC and other coins in exchange for paper claims(Celsius, BlockFi, Genesius, etc) promising interest. These paper claims is how BTC will not be limited to 21 mil.
Sure, those paper claims evaporated when redemptions for real BTC came and there was not enough BTC to go around. But will people learn and not lend their BTC for interest bearing paper BTC in the future? No, the desire for income is too great.
Nov 26, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Also, thousands of new alt coins is not why BTC is losing market share/dominance. 99% of them go to zero, so mathematically can’t take away BTC.D. It’s <1% of alts that is taking away BTC.D. The biggest contributors are stable coins, which the top 3, USDT, USDC, BUSD have ~40%.
OG’s in crypto remember when BTC was the base trading pair. You had to buy BTC first to buy any alt. It was said you bought alts to make more BTC. That was literally true back then because when you sold your alts, it had to be for BTC.
Nov 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
If BTC maxis were right, why is BTC dominance(BTC.D) near the lows at the peak of the '18 bull market? If alt coins goto zero or go down vs. BTC during bear markets, BTC.D should RISE during bear markets. That's what we saw in the 2018-2019 bear market, with BTC.D peaking at ~70%
However, in this bear market BTC.D has gone lower. It means BTC has underperformed alts in aggregate in a bear market which alts should go down more vs BTC. Mathematically, you can not claim alt coins goto zero vs. BTC while BTC is losing marketshare overall in crypto.
Jul 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What makes me sad about crypto is the amount of malevolence there is in the industry. It is totally unnecessary. We are still so early, every coin will succeed or fail on its own merits regardless of what any other coin does.
We don’t even see this kind of malevolence is sports where one athlete/team must lose for the other to win.
Jul 3, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I want to share my thoughts about earning yield, since the current crisis(Luna, Celsius, 3AC, Blockfi, etc etc) in crypto all relate to those trying to earn yield on their coins.
First principle is that seeking yield is an income or paycheck strategy. The purpose is to sustain your current lifestyle It generally does not create Life Changing Profits™. But it can generate the savings you need to make investments that do.
Jun 19, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Let’s use this scenario as an example of how we invest. First, do we AGREE that BTC reaches $1 mil by 2030? Yes, of course. But do we KNOW? Of course not. There are very few things we know with absolute certainty about 2030. The price of Bitcoin certainly isn’t one of them.
The first thing to acknowledge is this is a probability, not a certainty. We could be wrong. However, if we’re right, that is a 50X from here ($20K->$1 mil). Why are we taking the risk? What are the goals we want to accomplish with the “Life Changing Profits”™️?
Jun 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
BTC goes below the previous ATH for the first time. Standard 85% drawdown puts downside target at ~$10K. Just as we didn’t hit our $100K target, doesn’t mean we will hit $10K either. Support doesn’t begin until $13K.
If you believe in crypto, this is where the long term(3+ years) starts to look attractive even as the downside risk(-50%) is very high in the medium term (6-12 months).
Jun 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
What's really helped me succeed in crypto is having goals and a life outside crypto. Wife, family, my daughter, vacation, vehicles, homes, passports, visas, etc. etc.
Our motto is "Life Changing Profits"™ But few have explicitly defined and prioritized what and how they would use those profits for that changes their lives.
Jun 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The problem with collapse talk is timeframes. Yes, the US led system will collapse. Every empire eventually collapses. But barring some catastrophe or cataclysmic event(which none of us should be hoping for), not in the lifetime of anyone reading this today.
The world doesn’t just depend on the USD. It also depends on the protection of the US Navy to keep the peace on the oceans that enable the trade that supports our living standards.
May 12, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Why I believe the bear market and crypto winter has officially started. This will now be my 3rd bear I am going through, the last ones in '14 and '18. It doesn't mean crypto is dead. But it does mean I don't expect new highs for the next 2-3+ years as what happened in '14/'18.
IMO, the bear market was confirmed when we broke $30K support for the past ~1.5 years. The bars on the left is Volume By Time. They represent how long BTC traded in those price bands.
May 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I’ve been enjoying life and working on things outside of crypto. A lot of legal stuff, jurisdictions and countries, time with family….all the important stuff in life that crypto allowed me to focus on.
I will say for the past year, I’ve been focused on 2 places: Portugal and Dubai. For a variety of reasons, I think those are the places to be in the future. But that’s another thread.
Apr 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
ETH started 2017 at ~$700 million market cap vs. $15 billion for BTC and by June ETH was at ~$34B vs. ~$40B for BTC. ETH came within 85% of "flipping" BTC within 6 months with BTC having a 21X lead going into 2017. BTC rallied just in time to keep its No. 1 position.
Today, ETH is just ~4.5X behind BTC despite lagging the rest of the alt coin market. ETH has less ground to make up in this bull market than last. I would be confident of the "flipping" happen this year except there's all the problems with gas fees, ETH 2.0, etc., I won't repeat.
