I have been asked several times over the past few days how my views on Ahmad al-Sharaa have evolved, so I thought it was worth laying them out more fully here.

This is one of the longer threads I’ve written. While parts of it are speculative, it reflects the analysis and conclusions I have recently reached about the unfolding situation in Syria. (🧵)
1/ First, I want to say that I still respect al-Sharaa as a capable leader. It takes real grit to rise to the top among Syria’s opposition militias and to build the kind of state capacity he did in Idlib, an achievement that provided a model to replicate across the country.

Unlike his detractors, I also believe he is not a classical Salafi jihadist anymore. He has clearly disavowed international jihad, and today he strikes me more as a shrewd nation-builder and political strategist.

Where I was mistaken - and admittedly too optimistic - was in taking seriously his rhetoric about building a new Syria for all Syrians. I assumed that, even if he didn’t instinctively like the country’s minority groups, his inclusive language and approach was at least a pragmatic response to the reality that minorities collectively make up 25–30% of Syria’s population.

It also seemed like a necessary step toward ending the war and securing international legitimacy.

This post is interesting and got me thinking: the Jumblatt-Tarif rivalry for Druze leadership has recently erupted into the spotlight and is likely the most significant intra-Druze conflict of our generation. Yet, surprisingly little attention has been given to it.

Below is a brief overview of the two competing visions for the future of the Druze, along with my initial thoughts on them. (🧵) 1) The Jumblatt Vision:

This approach, represented by the Jumblatt family, is rooted in a traditional feudal leadership model that emphasizes pragmatic engagement with the ever-shifting political landscape of Lebanon and the broader region. A notable example of this pragmatism is Walid Jumblatt being the first Lebanese political leader to visit and actively seek a positive relationship with Syria’s new strongman, Ahmad al-Sharaa (aka al-Jolani).

The Jumblatts are known for their strategic shifts in allegiances, always seeking to benefit from the prevailing power dynamics while maintaining positive ties with all competing factions. These ties are often reinforced through marriage alliances, a longstanding tradition among Druze feudal families. Walid Jumblatt, for instance, is married to a Syrian Sunni (and previously to a Jordanian-Circassian Sunni), while his children, Teymour and Dalia, are married to a Lebanese Shia and a Lebanese Christian, respectively.

The Jumblatt family’s power is deeply tied to the loyalty of the Lebanese Druze community, creating a symbiotic relationship where the political survival of the clan and the community are inextricably linked.