NEW: Lib Dems call on the govt to suspend arms sales to Israel.

@EdwardJDavey: “Clearly, the thought that British-made arms could have been used in strikes such as these is completely unacceptable.

“The government must take swift action to suspend arms exports to Israel." There's been (more or less) a fragile consensus between Conservative and Labour on policy towards Israel and the war. Pressure is going to increase on Starmer to move. Possibly (and more importantly) Sunak too...

NEW: Chancellor says that OBR forecasts that inflation is set to fall below 2% target in a few months. NEW: Alcohol duty to be frozen until February 2025.

What does the Galloway victory mean?

For the general election, very little. This was a unique by election and little is transferable. But it does change politics before the election and possibly tells us something about the shape of politics after it as well.

🧵

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1763397332773585275

In the short term the result is highly embarrassing for Keir Starmer and for Labour. The Labour vote collapsed by over 40 % points. Labour will point to the fact that they withdrew support. But that reminds us that they had to withdraw support in a safe seat, itself a shambles.

It’s not like the British Parliament makes everything about itself, no not remotely Net result of all of this? Starmer has a lucky escape. Speaker is weaker. Commons is farcical. Nothing changes in Gaza. MPs don’t really get their vote. We continue not to scrutinise what matters (and even then not that much) , which is the government’s position and plan.

Grim news from Birmingham today. City Council has announced cuts to deal with effective insolvency notice. Includes:

-sale of £750m of assets
-cuts of to public services by £300m over two years
-21% rise in Council Tax
-dimming street lights
-fortnightly bin collections Breakdown of cuts for 2024-25

-£23.7m from adult social care
-£51.5m from children’s services
-£6.2m from housing
-£39.2m from city operations

More elsewhere. This follows long term reduction in spending power from the council, as per rest of local govt.

Liz Truss addresses NatCon

“Wokeism seems to be on the curriculum…there is confusion about basic biological facts, like what is a woman. Look at the net zero zealots…if you listen to the Today programme, I don’t recommend it, you’ll hear demands for more public spending…” Another cheap BBC shot from Truss, for whom it’s a habit. Perhaps if she had subjected herself to more interrogations on Today and other non partisan media organisations her premiership would have gone better.

A reminder that just in the last few weeks Trump has

-suggested convicted Jan 6th insurrectionists are “hostages” (while actual American hostages are still being held by Hamas).
-used fascist blood purity rhetoric.
-(once again) refused to commit to the NATO alliance.

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/1748391510423355789

In his bizarre piece Johnson says he doesn’t “minimise” the “riot” which took place on January 6th.

Johnson then proceeds to do exactly that. As has been extensively detailed by Congress and law enforcement agencies in the US, it was a coup attempt.

NEW: Immigration minister Robert Jenrick resigns from Sunak’s government

“I refuse to be yet another politician who makes promises to the British public on immigration but does not keep them.”

So by implication, Sunak won’t.

https://twitter.com/robertjenrick/status/1732481602158985424

Jenrick’s resignation is a moment of serious threat to Sunak’s govt.

Jenricm was a close friend of Sunak’s. He was out there by RS to keep an eye on Braverman. Jenrick senses which way the wind is blowing in the Conservative Party and moved accordingly.

NEW: Government LOSES Supreme Court Rwanda case

Court rules unanimously that at present the government’s Rwanda policy is unlawful because UK govt cannot guarantee that refugees would not be returned to their country of origin. That would be break international and domestic law. Supreme Court therefore upholds the appeals court decision

Leaves the government’s Rwanda (and therefore PM’s small boats pledge) policy in disarray. Court was clear that policy is in contravention not just of ECHR but array of other legislation and international commitments.

NEW: CONFIRMED CAMERON RETURNS AS FOREIGN SECRETARY

First former PM to return to government since Douglas Home (as Foreign Sec) in 1970.

He must be heading to the Lords. First former great office of state holder in lords since 1982.

Big call from Sunak.

https://twitter.com/10downingstreet/status/1724004188403737058

NEW: Buckingham Palace confirms David Cameron has been made a life peer.

First former PM to join the Lords since Thatcher.

There’s a reason he hasn’t before now. That first register of interests will be one to watch.

Already huge numbers gathering at Hyde Park Corner for the March





“Palestine will be free, from the river to the sea.”

What to say about Tamworth and Mid-Beds? Brief 🧵

For a while now it’s been clear there’s a chance Westminster has been underpricing the possibility of a Conservative wipe-out election and Lab wave. These results lend credit to that idea. Too many looked at Uxbridge, not Selby.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1715182261694300523

Starmer and Labour are now on an extraordinary run. Rutherglen, Selby, mid-Beds. It’s mid 1990s territory. Happening in southern and northern England and in Scotland.

Tamworth is the second best by election swing to Labour of all time.

NEW: (potentially) big news. Polish 🇵🇱 general election exit poll suggests that the opposition will have enough support to form the next government.

PiS (law and justice, governing party) - 36.8%
KO - 31.6%
TD - 13%
Lewica - 8.6%
Konfederacja - 6.2%
BS - 2.4%
Others - 1.4% Opposition parties on the basis of this poll would have 248 seats. You need 231.

Highest turnout ever in an election since the foundation of the third Polish republic (1989).

Just an exit poll so caution needed. But removal of PiS would be a huge moment for Poland and Europe.

All the focus on HS2 is on what happens next rather than the last 10 years. Whatever decision is made there are serious questions about the competence of the British state and successive administrations that a 330 mile high-speed train line has proven (apparently) impossible. Countries across the west have built equivalent infrastructure. If we can’t do it here (partly as a result of planning and the extra costs delays have added to the scheme) the question has to be whether Britain is really capable of competing.

NEW: I’ve seen the agenda for today’s Cabinet

RECOMMENDATIONS INCLUDE

-“Delay the off-gas-grid fossil fuel ban until 2035 and relax the requirement from 100% to 80% of households”
-“Relax the gas boiler phase-out target in 2035”
-“no new energy efficiency regulations on homes” -“Increase the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant by 50% to £7500”
-“Announce the the requirement for all vehicles to have significant zero emission capability in the period 2030-35 is to be removed”

Bonfire of green measures…

NEW: Big news in local govt and for the country. Birmingham City Council, the largest local authority in Europe, issues a section 114 notice, effectively saying it is no longer solvent. Spending will now be limited to statutory services. Big decisions for Gove on how to handle. Conundrum for new Levelling Up/Local Govt Sec Angela Rayner as to how to deal with as well. Birmingham is Labour controlled.

NEW: 78 days later Nadine Dorries has finally sent her resignation letter to Rishi Sunak. And what a letter: “Since you took office a year ago, the country is run by a zombie Parliament where nothing meaningful has happened. What exactly has been done or have you achieved?” Dorries also accuses Sunak of helping fan flames of media attacks against her which, she says, have resulted in police visits to her home.

She claims there was a massive establishment conspiracy against Boris Johnson and couldn’t remain an MP and simulatenously expose it.

So for personal reasons, marriage has been on my mind. Have been reading @ONS data on the subject.

I hadn’t quite realised just how big and rapid the changes have been over the past 50yrs. Says something about or misunderstanding of the past and about being young(ish) today🧵 NB- before we start I have no view whatever on the pros and cons of marriage as an institution for anyone, this is just about what's happened to it as a social institution in our society and what might have driven it.

WHAT HAPPENED IF YOU'RE WAKING UP 🧵

Labour GAIN Selby and Ainsty in record win against Tories, 24% swing (maj. 4161)

Lib Dems GAIN Somerton and Frome (maj. 29% swing (maj. 11,008)

Conservatives HOLD Uxbridge and South Ruislip 6.7% swing (maj. 495) On the face of it, those results provide something for everyone, every party won a contest. The Uxbridge result provides some much needed cover for Rishi Sunak and No.10

But that would be the wrong way to look at it. These are appallingly bad results for the Conservatives.

We can have a debate about the quality of university courses. But the first question to a politician advocating fewer kids go to university is to ask them where they went/where their kids go/went. Too often they’re not talking about themselves or their kids, but someone else’s. Whisper it- the expansion of HE has been one of the enormous successes of the last half a century, and especially the last few decades. It’s one of the few motors of social mobility. Politicians ought to think carefully before sending signals which might undermine it.

I used to resist the comparisons between Trump and Johnson. Not any more. Sunak and senior Conservatives should learn from Republicans. This doesn’t go away if you keep your head down. Democratic institutions have to be fought for. My piece for the NS. newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023… But this isn’t really a piece about Johnson. It’s about the institutional response to Trump/Johnson. Sunak and the Tory leadership nearly all abstained tonight. That’s a mistake. Not only is it strategically problematic (Johnson allies already hate him, there is little to lose…)