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Lawrence Hamtil Profile picture
Lawrence Hamtil
@lhamtil
Business collector🚬🏋️‍♂️🛩️. Tweets are not financial advice & should not be construed as solicitations. They are for informational purposes only.
Stu McKinnon Profile picture 1 subscribed
Oct 7, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
It's worth pointing out that equity valuations during most of the QE era were below the LT - average, presumably because low rates also signaled low growth expectations ImageImage Equity valuations didn't really peak until read GDP growth accelerated at the end pre-COVID, obviously turbocharged by the corporate tax cut. Valuations were higher in the 90s despite high rates b/c real GDP growth was huge & inflation was super low Image
May 21, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
I've been meaning to do this for a while, so here's a non-exhaustive list of books I recommend about various industries

1/ Skunk Works about Lockheed Martin specifically, and useful for the defense industry in general

amazon.com/Skunk-Works-Pe… 2/ Riding the Rails about Bob Krebs's time at Santa Fe railroad both pre- and post de-regulation and the birth of intermodal

amazon.com/Riding-Rails-B…
May 19, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I haven't done the Forgotten Stocks things in a while, so I'll throw out Automatic Canteen, which was one of the growth stocks of the late 1950s as part of the vending machine craze of the period Vending machines did ~$2B in sales then, which was significant, and what had been a duopoly in machine manufacturing became a craze:

"After all, they were the archetype of the modern growth stock; no dividends, no history, and great expectations"

jstor.org/stable/4469422 Image
Aug 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This slide does a good job of showing why I think Balchem's spec chem business enjoys an advantage: its products are a 'critical but non-core' necessity for the majority of its end-users

balchem.com/wp-content/upl… Image that affords you the ability to raise prices incrementally over time, which is reflected in sales growth in all but the energy-related segment Image
Mar 23, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
New Post: @JonFell73 and I talk about more consumer staples:

-how they fare in inflationary periods
-the risk of disruption
-why charges of survivorship bias to their famous chart on starting multiples are mostly hollow

fortunefinancialadvisors.com/blog/further-e… For newer followers, this is the famous referenced in the post
Dec 17, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
For all tobacco investors, the latest from @JonFell73 & co at Ash Park is a wonderful read. h/t @x__Alberto__x

tobaccotransformationindex.org/docs/AshParkTo… Image "Tobacco is the only Staples industry in which prices can consistently rise higher than inflation, and excise structures create a further advantage for manufacturers in disguising the level of price increase they themselves take." Image
Jan 9, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
One of my favorite research articles: McKinsey on the industry power curve:

mckinsey.com/business-funct… "When we tracked the economic profit of the world’s 2,393 largest companies over 10 years, we found [~]50% of a firm’s performance compared to the broader corporate universe is driven by what’s happening in its industry[.]"
Jan 3, 2020 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
[thread] I wanted to pass along a few articles & threads of research I have put together that I think are useful in terms of explaining why equity valuations have not mean-reverted meaningfully in decades.

Here they are: #1 My article and supporting research on how low & stable inflation + less cyclicality in the economy have aided higher valuations than has been the norm historically

Dec 13, 2019 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
I have always found this fund to be extremely fascinating. It has not added a new position since 1935(!)

individuals.voya.com/product/mutual… Positions have changed only via merger or spin-off. For example:

Berkshire was acquired b/c the fund owned a couple 🚂
Footlocker was acquired b/c the fund held Woolworth
econintersect.com/b2evolution/bl…
Jun 19, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A little thread on consumer staples and disruption. @JonFell73 and his colleagues wrote a very good article on how many top staples companies may be less disruptable than previously imagined. Witness how many top firms from 15 years ago are still top. Jon's firm cites interesting data from Accenture, which shows that consumer goods score very highly in terms of 'durability'
Jun 12, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Thread on capital-intensive vs non capital-intensive industries.

1/ This chart got a lot of circulation because I think many found it surprising 2/ However, you can see that going back almost 50 years, the observation holds: capital-intensive industries (mining, construction, autos) have lagged the broader market, whereas less capital-intensive industries (tobacco, beer, drugs) have tended to outperform
May 31, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
As the resident "tobacco guy," I always see takes like, "Despite the huge decline in smokers since the 1960s, tobacco stocks have done great, which is surprising." Maybe it's not? Sure, since mid-1926, tobacco > the market by ~2.62%/yr, but almost all of that is last ~45 yrs On a cumulative basis, the industry more or less kept up with the market until about 1970, then crushed. The first regulations due to safety concerns took place in the mid 1960s, which is about the time that the # of firms started to decline, I'm assuming due to consolidation
Mar 18, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
[thread of threads] For anyone interested in low vol investing stuff, here are a few of my posts and attendant threads on the subject

First up, the 'consistency' of low vol returns 2nd, from early 2018, why low vol made sense as a contrarian play then
Mar 5, 2019 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Thinking about this Buffett excerpt from 1992: "[A] high ratio of price to book value, a high price-earnings ratio, and a low dividend yield - are in no way
inconsistent with a "value" purchase."
berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1992.h… A good example of this is a company like Church & Dwight $CHD. Over the last ~40 years, it has rarely traded at a discount to the market. Conversely, Altria $MO has rarely traded at a premium to the market.
Dec 30, 2018 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Little thread on "growth" investing: first of all, as demonstrated here, growth is good, but only at a reasonable price; the less expensive "Nifty Fifty" stocks fared better than the more expensive ones 2/ As @HowardMarksBook wrote in 2001, historically, very few expensive growth stocks grow earnings at a rate to justify their lofty multiples oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-s…
Jul 24, 2018 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
BRIEF THREAD - Research articles I reference again & again

1. Credit Suisse - The Rise and Fall of Industries
credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/a… 2. 2. JPM - The Agony & The Ecstasy (of concentrated stock positions)

read.jpmorgan.com/i/371035-eotm-…
Jul 9, 2018 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
NEW POST: Howard Marks's 2001 cautionary tale of index-only investing, and lessons for today's investors

fortunefinancialadvisors.com/blog/a-caution… An excerpt from Howard Marks's 2001 memo that got me thinking about this:

oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-s…
May 24, 2018 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
NEW POST: Price Is What You Pay; Value Is What You Get - Nifty Fifty Edition

fortunefinancialadvisors.com/blog/price-is-…

Starting valuation matters less over very long time frames, but it matters a lot shorter-term Related, here's a great article from the archives of @jasonzweigwsj on the 1973-1974 market crash that crushed the Nifty Fifty.
jasonzweig.com/learning-from-…