Director of Modern Alpha
Host of China of Tomorrow, co-host Behind the Markets @SXMBusiness
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May 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Audi just apologized an viral ad. w. famous HK singer/actor Andy Lau, complete copy word for word from another social influencer.
Audi said the advertisement agency is the London based M&CSaatchi and expect investigation. baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=173349147…
This video contrasted the original creator version vs. Audi's newer version, which is almost word by word copy.
Did bring a smile to the face that Andy Lau's version much more polished!
May 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
May 22nd Shanghai 593 cases.
Beijing Haidian district 7d one level up zone management, another term getting popular as BJ avoids lockdown.
🧵(Alleged) Tencent's CEO Pony Ma Wechat moment post.
My Translation: "The way some netizens care about the economy is: companies can go bankrupt, but not layoffs; companies can go bankrupt, but they cannot work overtime. As for what is the Chinese economy? They ... /1
don't understand and don't care.
The only thing they care about is the Semi Chips and the so-called hard-core technology. As for food, clothing, housing and transportation, it's too vulgar and it doesn't matter. Of course, if they /2
May 21 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
May 21st, Shanghai 819 cases⬆️4%. total Covid high(15)/mid risk(56) areas 71.
Areas outside Beijing/Shanghai high(0)/mid(19) risk areas, continue getting back to normal faster, which means even more strict measures for Beijing and Shanghai.
Nanjing loosened second home buying for non-residents, for half a day, then walked back the policy, reason given is it didn't want to invite speculators.
The official is saying: Go back to your dorm. Today I will come and answer every question for each dorm until every dormitory has satisfying answer.
One student shouted, first tear down the wall.
Then a few students went up and torn down the wall.
May 16 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
May 16th Shanghai 896, 0 out of loop cases, first time under 1000 cases.
Shanghai subway officially in preparing to re-start. 7d moving average of top 9 cities subway riders, 2022 May is similar to 2020 May. /1
Beijing: 55 , w. 10 untraced cases. This is not good news bc. traced case very different from untraced case.
When cases are >10k, understand people in Shanghai skeptical on distinction of traced or not. But for <100 and dynamic zero, hugely important.
Most Shanghainese just want to get back to life 3 months ago, where they drink French coffee, read Russian novels and dreamed of studying in America.
May 15 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
May 15th Shanghai 1258, 3 death, 0 out loop cases.
Nationally 15 high risk (all in Beijing), 76 mid risk (31 in BJ) areas. This essentially saying outside Beijing and Shanghai, the high/mid risk areas are back to and lower than pre-Shanghai days.
However, both US/China news/social media will continue to be negative for a few more weeks bc. a significant number of media/social people live in these two cities.
May 14 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
May 14th Shanghai 1541, 1 death, 1 out of loop case.
Tianjin, neighboring city of Beijing, is starting all city test after finding one imported case from Beijing. /1
Many cities like Shenzhen has significantly reduced govt. revenue for April, partly bc. tax cut out but the central govt. has not sped up the money transfer, partly bc. the April economy is bad everywhere, except commodity producing provinces. /2
May 6: Shanghai 4088 cases, 12 deaths.
Beijing 55+17 asymptomatic.
Shenzhen just updated their entry protocol. Most cities follow similar but own rules.
From High risk area+SH, 14d hotel quarantine, mid risk area, 14d home quarantine.
China's Biotech sector has experienced similar and significant drawdowns lately (data up to April 10th), regardless each company's R&D or cash positions.
In the face of broad sell off, it will show which high quality companies could swim next few years. /2
May 5 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
May 5th: Shanghai 4466, 13 deaths, 16 out of loop cases.
The speed of cases decrease are likely slower now that many more Shanghai companies back to work, and more people movement. /1
From daily foreign imported cases, or leaving Shanghai w. tests negative but showing up positive in other cities, it is clear that testing is very imperfect.
That is, many times, positive cases couldn't be detected, as Beijing Daily acknowledges /2
May 3: Shanghai 4831, 16 deaths, 63 out-loop cases.
HK Q1 GDP -4%, expected -1%.
Many discussions has the wrong assumption that if only China just stop Covid Zero, economy will be better. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
Taiwan going through an Omicron wave where the low symptom cases are overwhelming the hospital ER.
Saying this Nth time: Chinese people love going to the hospital for the slightest fever, perfect condition for a medical run under Covid.
April 25th: All the Beijing Covid Jokes that's fit to print.
Flurry of Jokes means life is generally fine. During Shanghai's darkest hours, there was not many jokes viral.
Joke 1: Stock up Coke (not Pepsi) and beer, the hard currency in a locked down building.
Joke 2: Do not stock up food you like, or else you finished everything in 2 days.
Currently most friends say shelves are getting empty, but they have no problem buying what they need.
Apr 24 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
April 24th: Shanghai 1401+19657 asymptomatic, 39 deaths. Of all the Shanghai daily numbers, probably the death number most accurate, w/out acknowledging elderly care facility.
After field hospital marathon, now dancing party of the symptom patients /1 sohu.com/a/540621113_12…
Shanghai trying even harder tactics on restraining people leaving homes, erecting physical barriers to many neighborhoods.
Rumor is it's also trying quietly to ask neighboring provinces taking some people back, particularly migrant workers. /2 xw.qq.com/amphtml/202204…
Apr 23 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
April 23rd: Shanghai 2736+20643asymptomatic, 12 deaths, 218 out-of-loop cases.
Guangzhou achieved high/mid risk zero （中高风险清零）, a term that's been popping up, after social dynamic zero. /1
Guangzhou being able to achieve this after 14 days of some restrictions but not lockdown actually putting even higher pressure on Shanghai.
Many outside Shanghai still view the problems there Shanghai's problem, not national problem. /2
Apr 18 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
April 18th: Shanghai 2417+19831 asymptomatic, 561 out of trace-loop. Make this 0 is goal.
Q1 GDP 4.8%. Mar. Electrify 3.5%. GDP massaged, but not as dire as people predicting as I've mentioned many times many workers living close-loop on company premise to keep working. /1
20206 released from hospital. Recovery time for Omnicro is ~1wk, so expect this continue increasing to mark the turning point of new cases<new releases soon.
There are news that low symptom patient was doing half-marathon at the field hospital /2
April 17th: Shanghai 3238+21582 asymptotic, 722 out of trace.
Top 3 districts in Shanghai(pop. 25mil) has 60% of cases. Top 9 out of 16 has 87%.
Shanghai trying to make the 3 districts w. least cases social dynamic zero to boost confidence that Shanghai can get it done./1
Nomura data that 373mil 45 cities fully/partially locked needs clarification.
My understanding a city has 10mil w. a few sealed/controlled area, the whole 10mil is considered part of that 373mil.
Now I have one word for many China infor/narrative: whatever... /2