Precision missile targeting at distance is hard even with accurate targeting specs because you're steering something heavy and fast with minimal controls with which to course correct. Mobile target obviously makes it worse, last minute evasion is a challenge. It's just hard rocket physics and the speed is really punishing on even minor errors, that .1% drift in 20 seconds over miles is a wide miss @liron @avidseries There's a reason that for uber precision drops like Iran's nuclear facilities we're still doing old fashioned up close air drops, its just a ton less demanding re accuracy challenges

People understand that taxing unrealized individual income is bad but still think taxing corporations is good and my friends, that is the same thing.

"We shouldn't tax people still holding investments we should just tax the investments" basically In this house we believe in taxing income on a non distorted gross basis without deduction at the time it is realized by a natural human.

Weird how a ton of the first SAT optional NYU class failed orgo.

https://twitter.com/chsommers/status/1577016088054857728

It's impolite to say this bluntly but students with good grades and bad standardized test scores are, with rare exceptions, not very smart, not bad at testing.

The critical thing about House of the Dragon is that the greens are less sympathetic characters but... are obviously right? The instrumentalisation of reproductive lineage inherent in monarchical rule sits poorly with modern sensibilities but Rhaenyra's children are illegitimate. And it is not just that there are rumors, they are visibly obviously illegitimate while a trueborn line exists in parallel that most would view as senior to start with. There is just absolutely no way to place Jacaerys on the throne in time while Viserys' trueborn lineage lives.

I've been categorically certain Russia would not use nuclear weapons to win a war in Ukraine - it defies all their historic doctrine and self interest. I am only very skeptical they would use a tactical nuke to avoid losing one (ie routing back to borders). Categorically certain v very skeptical is not a huge difference in probabilistic terms - perhaps between 0.1% and 5% - but that's a material albeit low probability worth flagging as such.

One thing I think will be very clear in hindsight that eludes people now is that humans just aren't evolved to deal with the amount of cognitive inputs (ideas, feeds, sounds, lights) coming at them in modernity. Different people have different tolerances. As people get closer to theirs, I would suggest, they get more prone to varying presentations of anxiety, choice paralysis, conspiracy thinking, etc in both clinical and subclinical ways. It's less the algos or the content than the simple volume.

Executive order counting is a weird measure of presidential overreach. The president is the boss of the executive branch, every instruction they give is an "executive order." Which ones get written and published is a political / ambiguity reduction function that doesn't strictly track importance or overreach. A verbal instruction to make a policy to address something is more at risk of encroaching on congress's turf than a published order on a core executive function (for example on executive branch employment policies).

A stock trading way above fundamentals will likely (not investment advice!) lead to losses for almost all of the people trading above, even if some time it just right. In fact, the primary economic dynamic is a few who time it right profiting at the direct expense of other enthusiastic buyers. So I suspect enthusiasm bubbles and short squeezing are not going to be major systematic factors of the market on a go forward basis.

I think this poll is phrased in a way that maxes prioritization responses (sounds like the no waste option is junk risk entirely if not previously aware of the debates) but it's right that broadly many people are OK with waste and excess death as a cost of following the rules.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1354025158604951554

Perhaps the more charitable read is that many people think they are at risk of losing their spot in line if the system opens up (though they can excuse this with the at risk) and so favor rule following out of a sort of self interest, fearing battling through a scrum themselves.