Maestro ☈ayo Profile picture
Armchair generalist.
fche Profile picture Phil Hershkowitz Profile picture DenysThorez Profile picture Left Jab Right Hook Profile picture David Goldsmith Profile picture 6 added to My Authors
19 Nov
Hotspots update. Any hints of endemicity?

1/ Brussels. Unexpectedly, less immunity than other hotspots. Would be interesting to look at data with more granularity (neighborhoods, hospitals vs. care-homes). Curve seems to be stabilizing now and smaller than first though so far.
2/ London. Deaths in Hospital + all cause vs. 5 year average.
3/ Manaus. Não vejo segunda onda.
Read 7 tweets
18 Nov
1/ However disappointing that the Premier (not AT) is talking about restrictions in Sweden, it's interesting that this is still subject to consultation to several "bodies". Also, if it passes:

* Starts on Nov. 24 and for 4 weeks.
* Schools open.
* No limits to private gatherings

* No mask mandates.
* Restaurants and bars open.

I wished we had this type of "lockdown" here.…

Bodies have to give their impressions by tomorrow, 15:00.…
Read 6 tweets
18 Nov
Update: It will *not* be subject to vote in the parliament, but it has been sent to "consultation bodies" for input. They have to give their impressions by tomorrow, 15:00.…
This is because this constitutes an amendment to a previous "forördning". The alcohol ban after 10PM constitutes a new "forördning" and thus apparently may be discussed in parliament?

Again thanks @HaraldofW proud new and busy dad for all help here :)…
This is an example of bodies that have answered this proposal so far. It is refreshing to hear there is at least some democratic process behind these decisions.
Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
1/ Lockdowns aren’t born equal. What are we really expecting to achieve? Another irrelevant thread from yours truly @maestro_rayo and @federicolois
2/ “Bro, you dumb. Of course Lockdowns work!” we have heard, over and over. Also “Lockdowns don’t work at all, bro”. That begs the question. What is “A Lockdown”? What is the goal? How effective are LDs at achieving those goals? And what are the costs and risks?
3/ We know ‘a certain’ respiratory disease is transmitted (mostly) by human to human contact. You heard it, droplets, aerosols. We might fear fomites and zoonotic hosts but let’s stick to “overwhelming majority of transmission is human to human”.
Read 36 tweets
18 Oct
1/ The way I see it there are 4 "schools" on how to respond to this crisis (with a lot of levels in between of course):

1. #ZeroCovid (eradication)
2. Suppression until vaccine
3. Mitigation in parallel to vaccine and treatment development
4. Do nothing
2/ 1 and 4 are extremes. They both have serious flaws. On the one hand humanity has only eradicated very few diseases with very particular characteristics.
3/ On the other hand "do nothing" is not ethical, we must ethically strive to minimize damage caused by the pandemic.

What to do then?
Read 17 tweets
17 Oct
1/ Quisiera ampliar un poco este comentario, que tuvo un efecto inesperado, aunque también generó un debate interesante.

2/ Primero que todo, el tono del mensaje no fue precisamente el deseado, más que proclamar una verdad absoluta o sabotear algún esfuerzo, mi intención era dar un mini-resumen de algo que pienso en un contexto más grande.
3/ Y aclaro que aquí no quiero posar de "experto", es un análisis personal, como ciudadano interesado en el debate sobre el manejo de esta crisis. Esta crisis es transversal a toda la sociedad y más que un debate estrictamente científico, es un debate social y ético.
Read 27 tweets
16 Oct
1/ I remembered a joke that has many versions (the one I knew was about mathematicians, but similar). I think it applies well to many of the debates we are having in 2020:

"A group of wealthy investors wanted to be able to predict the outcome of a horse race...
2/ So they hired a group of biologists, a group of statisticians, and a group of physicists. Each group was given a year to research the issue. After 1 year, the groups all reported to the investors. The biologists said that they could genetically engineer an unbeatable racehorse
3/ ...but it would take 200 years and $100 billion. The statisticians reported next. They said that they could predict the outcome of any race, at a cost of $100 million per race, and they would only be right 10% of the time.
Read 5 tweets
2 Oct
1/ Age-targeted mitigations vs general mitigations. Who should isolate? On a paper by @WesPegden and @ChikinaLab.
2/ We’ve come a long way in our C19 journey, we have learned so much. We recently just learned how this pandemic affected people differently by age...we are all wiser now. If only we knew…
3/ Well, not exactly. Relatively good IFR estimates by age groups were available since March (Verity et al.) and were shouting something: the difference in IFR between ages 10 and 80 was 1000x.

Read 16 tweets
29 Sep
In case you are wondering, the real Maestro Rayo was one of Colombia's most famous artists:

I'm unrelated to him.
My name here makes tribute to the great satire song by @Ariasvilla and @karltroller where Rayo gets sick at a cocktail/exhibition party at an 80s disco.…
I have no clue if this actually happened but the song is a great summary of (upper class/snob) society in Bogotá in the 80s. I think it hasn't changed that much.
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
1/ La estrategia Sueca se puede resumir así: proteger a los vulnerables, dejar que los menos vulnerables socialicen dejando colegios, restaurantes y bares abiertos.

2/ Esto tiene sentido porque desde Marzo sabemos que la tasa de fatalidad (IFR) es entre 2 a 3 ordenes de magnitud inferior para grupos menores a 60 años (los menos vulnerables).

3/ Suecia necesitó 600 UCIs en el pico y ha convergido a una fatalidad general de 600/millón, que es un orden de magnitud inferior a lo que había sido predicho por modelos tempranos (y pobremente calibrados).

Read 13 tweets
26 Sep
1/ Gamble much? Is a vaccine our only hope to minimize negative outcomes of the pandemic? A less-mathsy explanation from @maestro_rayo of “The Vaccine Gamble” thread from @federicolois

2/ The world is uncertain. We always take decisions with uncertain outcomes, with intuitive understanding of the likelihood of negative impacts or benefits. Say you decide to jump into your car to go shopping.
3/ Unconsciously, you are making the following choice: With high probability, you will safely reach the supermarket and back, and bring food to feed your family. But, there is always a tiny non-zero chance you may be involved in a traffic incident. Low, but you are taking a risk. Image
Read 17 tweets
25 Sep
1/ Con estas estimaciones del CDC y datos INS, estos serían los datos estimados de infectados reales a la fecha.

Colombia: 16,03 MM (~32%)

Barranquilla: 1,09 MM (~90%)

Sincelejo: 0,21 MM (~75%)

Cartagena: 0,58 MM (~63%)

Bogotá D.C.: 3,93 MM (~50%)

Cali: 0,7 MM (~31%)

Medellín: 0,53 MM (~22%)
3/ La mayoría parece realista (Barranquilla algo alto). ¿Están los datos de IFR de CDC acercándose mucho a la realidad? ¿Son las cifras de decesos por COVID en Colombia confiables? (mortalidad infantil es muy elevada comparada a otros países). Veremos.
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep
1/ Bogotá y Sars-Cov-2 en cifras ¿Qué pasó? ¿Qué podemos esperar en las próximas semanas? ImageImage
2/ ¿Alguien recuerda cuando nos dijeron "encierro pedagógico preventivo” y “solo por este fin de semana”?. Bogotá era entonces una aldea de 20 cas... tenía apenas unos cuantos casos confirmados de Sars-Cov-2 pero el miedo ya se había apoderado de los ciudadanos.
3/ "No fueron una, ni fueron dos..." fueron muchas extensiones a los confinamientos, picos y géneros, picos y cédulas, por localidades, sectorizadas etc. Con la calma que nos trae el final del pico y cédula, miremos los números.
Read 22 tweets
19 Sep
1/n. Todo lo que quería saber sobre la inmunidad de rebaño pero no se atrevía a preguntar.

¿Qué es HIT? ¿Cuál es la relación con R_t? ¿El virus desaparecerá? Un hilo por

@maestro_rayo, @LDjaparidze y @federicolois Image
2/n. Primero algunos conceptos básicos. R_0 sin restricciones o número básico de reproducción es "la cantidad de gente que (en promedio) será infectada por un individuo infectado mientras sea infeccioso", cuando la gran mayoría de la población nunca ha sido infectada aún.
3/n Por ejemplo, si a Ud. le da una gripa nueva, durante la semana en que esté enfermo/a infectará a unas 3 personas. Puede que no infecte a nadie, pero otra persona infectará a 20 en la oficina. Cuando calcula el promedio, este podría ser de 3 personas, por lo tanto R_0 = 3. Image
Read 25 tweets
17 Sep
1\ What's the deal with effective HIT? Can we get away with lower HITs? A deep(ish) dive into an extended SEIR model by @mgmgomes1 et al. Image
2\ Remember that we discussed in some depth what HI (herd immunity) is and what a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model captures.

3\ We also discussed that there are caveats in the generic SIR assumptions vs. real-life conditions, including network heterogeneity and the fact that an overestimated IFR (infection rate fatality) might lead to underestimate real epidemic spread.

Read 18 tweets
10 Sep
1\n What the sigmoid is a Gompertz? An elegant and simple prediction approach by @MLevitt_NP2013. Beware, though, it is really that simple. A medium rare explanation by @maestro_rayo, @LDjaparidze and @federicolois
2\n We are pretty sure we were kids when early this year everybody was talking about "exponential growth". Exponential growth is “scary and wild”, like standing unarmed in front of a pack of wolves in the forest at night kind of “scary and wild”.
3\n You may remember that old fable about a king that was naive enough to accept “a great deal”. If he'd lose a chess game, he'd have to pay a single grain of rice on the first chess square and double it on every consequent one until the board was full.…
Read 34 tweets
8 Sep
1\n How to estimate how dangerous an infectious disease is? What is IFR and CFR? Why, on each side of the fence, they are pulling their eyes out. A thread by @maestro_rayo and @federicolois
2\n When discussing how bad an infectious disease is, we need a measurement that provides us with an idea of the risk one has when contracting it. A ‘popular’ measurement (for obvious reasons) is "fatality" or “If I am the unlucky one catching it, what are my odds?” number.
3\n A usual indicator for this is the Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) which is defined as #deaths / #infections, a number usually given in percentage (how many out of 100). So for instance an IFR of 1% means 1 out of 100 infected dies. An IFR of 0.1% means 1 out of every 1000.
Read 31 tweets
3 Sep
1/n. Everything you wanted to know about Herd Immunity, but were afraid to ask.

What is HIT exactly? What’s the relationship with R_t? Will the virus vanish? A thread by @maestro_rayo, @LDjaparidze and @federicolois
2/n. Some basic concepts first. Unrestricted R_0 or basic reproduction number is “the amount of people that (on average) an infected individual will infect while infectious”, when the vast majority of the population has never been ill before.
3/n You catch a new cold, during the week or so you are ill you’ll infect about 3 persons. Of course you might not infect anybody, but some other will infect 20 at the office. When you take the average everyone has infected roughly 3. Then R_0=3
Read 27 tweets
31 Aug
Aplaudo que hayan por actualizado los modelos de Saludata pero:

¿Porqué no se ajustaron datos de hospitalización general y UCIs a la fecha de hoy, si ya sabemos qué pasó?

¿Porqué insisten en que si no hubiera mitigación en Diciembre se necesitarían 10k UCIs y 30k hosp. gen.? ImageImage
Read 5 tweets