Partner @coldspark. GOP political consultant. @theAAPC board. Catholic. Husband. Father 4x. @dietcoke enthusiast. Burkean. 🇺🇸 🇮🇪
Sep 21, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I could not help myself. At first glance and until @MassINCPolling clarifies their geographic regions it looks like they absolutely bungled this survey. You can read the details here:
thecrosstab.us/p/public-polls…
One small nugget... they say Philadelphia 17%. Assuming they mean Philadelphia county which is the only logical reading of their survey document this would be an 88% oversample of the city.
Aug 16, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
More to come from me on this in a long form I am working on to put out from @coldspark but we're seeing a historic response bias on surveys that is setting the table for a large polling miss this fall.
In the meta data from the call centers college educated Dems are 3-4x more likely to answer than non-college. While weighting can help minimize the bias if done correctly it won't totally eliminate the problem.