Afghan deep dive:
The Soviets sent troops in 1979 to support the Afghan Communist gov't. Many fled into Pak/Iran where the US/allies started sending equipment thru PAK back into Afghan to fight the communists. The Soviets left in '89 and after only a few years a civil war began The civil war took place from '91-96 between the Pashtuns (radicalized Pashtuns mostly make up the Taliban) vs the Northern Alliance- Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghan. While it ended- many areas were left semi-autonomous providing sanctuary for Al-Queda & the Taliban

After outsourcing inflation and our supply chain for the last 30 years, we are more beholden than ever to the international markets and external pricing. Our delivery times are the worst in the world, but we have been able to pass on more price increases as people sit on excess savings which have been working lower. We are already hitting a point where customers are balking at prices.

Iran is seeing an increase in protests regarding water shortages and underlying economic weakness. Ahwaz started protesting against their economic condition (Minority Arabs- 2% of the Iran population) because they sit on some of the most resource rich acreage in the world. Protests have increased in Khuzestan, Lorestan, and Tehran following rampant water shortages. Instead of sending water, the regime sent military equipment & personnel that have used live fire on protestors to disperse rallies.

Here is another escalation point that I have been pointing out since 2017.
reuters.com/world/saudi-co… There is also a big political divide between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has steadily grown as the UAE withdrew from Yemen- officially ending their direct involvement in Feb 2020. Pressure was mounting between the two allies as they differed in opinion on how to proceed.

What is the Fed's RRP (Reverse Repo Program)? The "Fed Open Market Trading Desk" sells a security (SOMO) with an agreement to repurchase it at a specified price & time in the future. It helps protect the Fed funds rate and absorbs near term liquidity. Why is this so important? As the size of RRP increase, it usually signifies the market is saturated with liquidity and tapering will be close(6 months?) Banks have various options to invest excess liquidity, but rising gov't transfer, excess corporate cash, & limited bank loans increase cash on hand.

I think it is important to highlight some underlying issues in the global crude market.
1) the physical market has been weak for months and not the "weeks" being peddled by the narrative shift
2) the bigger issue now is the rising rates at the EM level and "new" demand headwinds We have talked about (been bearish) the emerging market world as cracks were already forming before the US 10 Yr took off. Monetary policy is already shifting tighter as Fiscal tries to remain accommodative- but costs are rising and pressuring government balance sheets.