1/Ten years ago, Britain voted for Brexit.
New ECFR/Mandate polling out this morning reveals something Westminster hasn't noticed: the country has quietly changed its mind — and not in the way you'd expect.
The Leave/Remain divide is dead. Here's what replaced it. 🧵 2/Start with the verdict. Asked to name benefits of Brexit, the most common answer Britons give is "don't know."
Second most common: "none of the above."
They see damage on cost of living, migration, security, no apparent upside — and most Leave voters agree.

The liberal world order isn't wounded.

It's dead.

And every foreign policy establishment in London, Paris, Brussels, and Berlin is still performing CPR on a corpse.

🧵 Thread: Why the cleverest people in geopolitics are solving the wrong problem—and what actually comes next. 1/ We've spent 30 years building institutions for a world that no longer exists. The UN Security Council. The WTO. NATO's Article 5. All designed for an era of converging values.

As Europe wakes up to US election result it is important to avoid 2 big traps: panic & denial. one, states concerned about their security panicking & rushing to DC try to cut special bilateral deals. The other is not to take Trump seriously & not to prepare for a new world. 1/ At @ecfr we have been working hard to understand the Maga universe. This paper by @JyShapiro @majda_ruge @celiabelin is a must read - trying to understand the philosophy, motivations and ideas that will shape a Trump presidency ecfr.eu/publication/im…

Lots of confusion and head-scratching in Europe about how to prepare for @realDonaldTrump following his @JDVance1 pick. At ECFR we have been thinking about this for a long time. Thread 👇 1/8 We recently opened an office in Washington DC and have been talking to many of the people in the MAGA ecosystem for many years now. You can read a brilliant analysis of scenarios by my colleagues @JyShapiro @celiabelin @majda_ruge here: 2/8ecfr.eu/publication/im…

Today at @ecfr we released exciting polling on how Europeans see the EU and world post covid-19
@DatapraxisEU.

➡️Over 11,000 European citizens
➡️9 EU countries 🇧🇬🇩🇰🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇵🇱🇵🇹🇪🇸🇸🇪
➡️Over 2/3 of 🇪🇺population + GDP

Here are some of our takeaways. A thread. In our report today, Ivan Krastev & I show that assumptions about support for the big state, faith in experts; pro- & anti-Europeanism were misplaced. Covid-19 has scrambled distinctions between nationalism & globalism

buff.ly/2CCoah9