USAF Chief Scientist Victoria Coleman later noted ARRW was "the most mature weapon that we have" Disclosed prev. unreported successful Tactical Boost Glide flight test on Dec 8, 2020, over the Pacific, "an amazing day." Was coy on whether ARRW was fully zeroed out

https://twitter.com/masao_dahlgren/status/1783525484489224491

Progress continuing on HACM, Congress and Global Strike Command apparently "huge fans and can't wait" for it to be in inventory. flight test next year will happen in Australia. This is why AUKUS matters.

[1/3] Real vs. AI-generated images: check out the Fourier patterns yourself. At right: the FFT output, which captures info on repeating patterns in images. You can generate them easily with ImageJ, as I've done here.
Fake:

https://twitter.com/iris_IGB/status/1779884473930113429

[2/3] Load in 4K and zoom for best results.
Real:

Left: the infrared scene data we imported into our simulation. Right: a more detailed pic of the hypersonic model, with diff temps assigned to the leeward & windward sides, leading edges, and rear. It's not just distance; the diff in viewing aspects are modelled in.

https://twitter.com/Missile_Defense/status/1733925099609207086

It won't just be IR. @tomkarako and I have prev said that hypersonic weapons have unique kinematic vulns. But they also have unique, exploitable signatures. We don't model those, but see slide from Dr. Iain Boyd—complex interactions on vehicle surface => novel plumes & sigs.

There's so much buzz around new missiles; rockets are inherently attention-grabbing. But over time, you learn that it's everything upstream—the sensors, battle management systems, comms, command & control—that matters most.
defensenews.com/opinion/commen…

https://twitter.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1654965410708717568

But those things are murky. There's no easy way to prove to adversaries that you have software that speeds up your targeting cycles, or EW/cyber that bogs up theirs. Russia could see Ukraine's meager missile stocks, but couldn't see the murky stuff that actually wins wars.

Thread on post-Cold-War glow-ups. In 1993, Russia converted some Topol ICBMs to civilian space launch vehicles: "Start" and "Start-1". They took the same mobile missile launcher (left) and added a spiffy paint job. Could lift ~360 - 450 kg to LEO. Before/After: The Fukuyama edit. Military version (left), civilian version (right). Both the 4-stage and 5-stage SLVs had a 5 km altitude, 2.5 s period, and 6 MoA inclination orbital injection accuracy.

Why did the B-21 stay in budget? Lots of factors. Here are a few:
1) Production-representative lines. First ~100 F-35 prototypes didn't use similar lines to prod. models. B-21's proto line took longer to make, but it was more prod.-representative. Fewer surprises to EMD.

https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1598884829390458880

2) The fruits of the 2009 Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act. Before, services had incentives to underestimate costs, to get more programs in their budgets. WSARA made services fund independent cost estimates from OSD CAPE, including for B-21.

I made an AI show us how artists of the past might view nuclear war.
(Images generated by Stable Diffusion 1.4)
1. Goya: 2. Manet:

THREAD: Japan MOD releases its 予算概要 [Budget Outline] today, and it's telling what the first "major item" is: standoff missiles.
Top down: 1) improving Type 12 ASCM, HGV S&T, HCM S&T, a prototype modular ASCM, JSM and JASSM.
Link: mod.go.jp/j/yosan/yosan_…
1/ Item 2: Integrated missile defense capability. JADGE is Japan's AMD C2 system. Suggests it'll follow US approach of integrating hypersonic defense with Aegis first.
2/

1/ A rare peek into history from the back catalog: the kill vehicle for the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, cancelled effort to develop a boost-phase interceptor.

https://twitter.com/masao_dahlgren/status/1184510432565968897

2/ A key advantage with these types of systems is the ability to intercept an ICBM while it is still boosting into space—before it can release multiple payloads and other debris, which are harder to track. See this comparison of estimates on boost times: it's a matter of seconds.

A little recap thread on @tomkarako and I's hypersonic defense report.

https://twitter.com/Missile_Defense/status/1491518095965540352

Also for general interest: some more behind-the-scenes drafts images of some of the graphics featured in the report.

Reentry vehicle nosetip after flying through rain at Mach 10, Sandia photo. One of the many engineering challenges to consider when designing hypersonic weapons. Table of impact energies and speeds for water-density particles, courtesy B. Carmichael, Southern Research.

60's aerospace recruiting ads exude such a unique energy

Photo: Missiles and Rockets, 1961 They really did go all out back then

THREAD: Some highlights from TTC's Military Hypersonic Weapon Systems Conference. Larry Wortzel discusses Chinese doctrine and compares capabilities. Notes that PLA hopes to "become capable of holding a potential enemy's mainland at risk." Raises concerns over mixing of nuclear and non-nuclear systems.

VADM Hill, MDA Director at #SMD2021: “The big change for us as an agency…we used to spend most of our time worried about countermeasures [decoys, etc]…but with these coordinated attacks we see today, it’s about maneuver and speed.” Hill: Intercepting low, maneuvering threats in "terminal phase...is never where we want to be"

Gen James at #SMD2021 panel: As SPACECOM's mandate begins over 100 km in the atmosphere, "my team is in charge of perhaps the largest AOR in the universe" Gen Brady: "we've been focused a lot of fixed and semifixed assets" but Army intent on pivoting to protect the maneuver force. Says European allies very interested in this capability.

At #SMD2021, Adm. Richard cautions against comparing stockpile sizes, because half of US stockpile "operationally unavailable" due to treaty constraints. Also asks OSINTers to keep looking for Chinese siloes; "I usually have to pay someone to do that" Richard: China "soon to be the pacing threat in most categories," and Russia "seeking to solidify great power status"—points to Moscow's gray zone actions.

Dr. Shari Feth, MDA tech lead uses fun graphic at #SMD2021. In which the boater is the PM and the lumberjack is the technologist. Feth emphasizes that the program side should have a dual-hatted chief technology officer and dedicated plan to aid in tech transition. Programs lack incentives to evaluate new technologies without bridge planning and people.

#SMD2021 the Mid-Range Capability will involve multirole launcher that can fire Tomahawk or SM-6. "We actually have a missile on the rail that can do offensive or defensive fires simultaneously." RCCTO head Thurgood shows some photos of the LRHW delivery and describes the DE-MSHORAD shoot-off.

VCJCS Hyten speaking at #SMDC2020:
"I wanna give the Army a little bit of a hard time...the Space and Missile Defense Command [name]—it's schizophrenic"
"Space is a place, missile defense is a mission."
Knowing laughter as Hyten discusses naming confusion with AAMDC. Hyten: Joint fires, contested logistics, joint c2, information advantage are "supporting concepts" needed by joint force, recently signed strategic directive for services to build requirements.

#SMD2021 panel: RCCTO internally referred to LRHW as Army's "dark eagle." No difference in 34.5" booster for Army and Navy systems, except canister. TEL is built off existing trailer, and "took a known C2 system" for battery operations. BG Rafferty: "we're going to have an application on the Titan ground station that is going to generate the calls for fire"— ML model will be "driven by the commander's high priority target list"

VanHerck highlights at #smdsymposium 2021:
-Defining integrated deterrence: “Deterrence is created every day using all levers of influence”
-To disrupt US power projection, peer adversaries are “clearly focused on [striking] the homeland…It’s in their doctrine” -China recently demonstrated “very advanced” hypersonic glide systems, says will not go into further detail
-Missile Defense and Nuclear Posture Reviews “cannot be separate”