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Masao Dahlgren Profile picture
Masao Dahlgren
@masao_dahlgren
Fellow @CSIS @Missile_Defense. Personal acct @masaodahlgren.
2 subscribers
Jan 28 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Key details in the White House "Iron Dome for America" missile defense EO:
1) High-level callout to HBTSS. With two demo satellites in orbit, HBTSS will transfer from MDA to Space Force in 2026. The language implies a need to preserve fire control requirements... Image
Image ...something we repeatedly argued for last winter. There was a real danger that high-fidelity hypersonic tracking would be made into a reach goal. So this is an important intervention from the top. Image
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Oct 7, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Old news, but man, RU munitions look ancient:
🧨 Obsolete through-hole construction (wire leads connect components to board surface)
🧨 Thin, slathered-on encapsulation compound (red, used to insulate/protect parts)
🧨 No potting (filling empty space w/ shock-cushioning plastic) For comparison, some early 2000s NDIA slides on the U.S. GMLRS system electronics. SMT instead of through-hole components, which are hermetically sealed in metal and plastic potting material. Image
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Apr 28, 2024 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
USAF Chief Scientist Victoria Coleman later noted ARRW was "the most mature weapon that we have" Disclosed prev. unreported successful Tactical Boost Glide flight test on Dec 8, 2020, over the Pacific, "an amazing day." Was coy on whether ARRW was fully zeroed out
Image Progress continuing on HACM, Congress and Global Strike Command apparently "huge fans and can't wait" for it to be in inventory. flight test next year will happen in Australia. This is why AUKUS matters.
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Apr 15, 2024 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
[1/3] Real vs. AI-generated images: check out the Fourier patterns yourself. At right: the FFT output, which captures info on repeating patterns in images. You can generate them easily with ImageJ, as I've done here.
Fake:

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Image [2/3] Load in 4K and zoom for best results.
Real:
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Dec 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Left: the infrared scene data we imported into our simulation. Right: a more detailed pic of the hypersonic model, with diff temps assigned to the leeward & windward sides, leading edges, and rear. It's not just distance; the diff in viewing aspects are modelled in.

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Image It won't just be IR. @tomkarako and I have prev said that hypersonic weapons have unique kinematic vulns. But they also have unique, exploitable signatures. We don't model those, but see slide from Dr. Iain Boyd—complex interactions on vehicle surface => novel plumes & sigs. Image
May 7, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
There's so much buzz around new missiles; rockets are inherently attention-grabbing. But over time, you learn that it's everything upstream—the sensors, battle management systems, comms, command & control—that matters most.
defensenews.com/opinion/commen… But those things are murky. There's no easy way to prove to adversaries that you have software that speeds up your targeting cycles, or EW/cyber that bogs up theirs. Russia could see Ukraine's meager missile stocks, but couldn't see the murky stuff that actually wins wars.
Jan 27, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Thread on post-Cold-War glow-ups. In 1993, Russia converted some Topol ICBMs to civilian space launch vehicles: "Start" and "Start-1". They took the same mobile missile launcher (left) and added a spiffy paint job. Could lift ~360 - 450 kg to LEO. ImageImage Before/After: The Fukuyama edit. Military version (left), civilian version (right). Both the 4-stage and 5-stage SLVs had a 5 km altitude, 2.5 s period, and 6 MoA inclination orbital injection accuracy. ImageImage
Dec 3, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Why did the B-21 stay in budget? Lots of factors. Here are a few:
1) Production-representative lines. First ~100 F-35 prototypes didn't use similar lines to prod. models. B-21's proto line took longer to make, but it was more prod.-representative. Fewer surprises to EMD. 2) The fruits of the 2009 Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act. Before, services had incentives to underestimate costs, to get more programs in their budgets. WSARA made services fund independent cost estimates from OSD CAPE, including for B-21.
Sep 1, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
I made an AI show us how artists of the past might view nuclear war.
(Images generated by Stable Diffusion 1.4)
1. Goya: Image 2. Manet: Image
Aug 31, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD: Japan MOD releases its 予算概要 [Budget Outline] today, and it's telling what the first "major item" is: standoff missiles.
Top down: 1) improving Type 12 ASCM, HGV S&T, HCM S&T, a prototype modular ASCM, JSM and JASSM.
Link: mod.go.jp/j/yosan/yosan_…
1/ Image Item 2: Integrated missile defense capability. JADGE is Japan's AMD C2 system. Suggests it'll follow US approach of integrating hypersonic defense with Aegis first.
2/ Image
Jun 22, 2022 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
1/ A rare peek into history from the back catalog: the kill vehicle for the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, cancelled effort to develop a boost-phase interceptor. 2/ A key advantage with these types of systems is the ability to intercept an ICBM while it is still boosting into space—before it can release multiple payloads and other debris, which are harder to track. See this comparison of estimates on boost times: it's a matter of seconds.
Feb 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
A little recap thread on @tomkarako and I's hypersonic defense report. Also for general interest: some more behind-the-scenes drafts images of some of the graphics featured in the report.
Feb 1, 2022 • 13 tweets • 7 min read
Reentry vehicle nosetip after flying through rain at Mach 10, Sandia photo. One of the many engineering challenges to consider when designing hypersonic weapons. Image Table of impact energies and speeds for water-density particles, courtesy B. Carmichael, Southern Research. Image
Jan 31, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
60's aerospace recruiting ads exude such a unique energy

Photo: Missiles and Rockets, 1961 They really did go all out back then
Oct 18, 2021 • 27 tweets • 7 min read
THREAD: Some highlights from TTC's Military Hypersonic Weapon Systems Conference. Larry Wortzel discusses Chinese doctrine and compares capabilities. Notes that PLA hopes to "become capable of holding a potential enemy's mainland at risk." Raises concerns over mixing of nuclear and non-nuclear systems.
Aug 12, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
VADM Hill, MDA Director at #SMD2021: “The big change for us as an agency…we used to spend most of our time worried about countermeasures [decoys, etc]…but with these coordinated attacks we see today, it’s about maneuver and speed.” Hill: Intercepting low, maneuvering threats in "terminal phase...is never where we want to be"
Aug 12, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Gen James at #SMD2021 panel: As SPACECOM's mandate begins over 100 km in the atmosphere, "my team is in charge of perhaps the largest AOR in the universe" Gen Brady: "we've been focused a lot of fixed and semifixed assets" but Army intent on pivoting to protect the maneuver force. Says European allies very interested in this capability.
Aug 12, 2021 • 32 tweets • 4 min read
At #SMD2021, Adm. Richard cautions against comparing stockpile sizes, because half of US stockpile "operationally unavailable" due to treaty constraints. Also asks OSINTers to keep looking for Chinese siloes; "I usually have to pay someone to do that" Richard: China "soon to be the pacing threat in most categories," and Russia "seeking to solidify great power status"—points to Moscow's gray zone actions.
Aug 11, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Dr. Shari Feth, MDA tech lead uses fun graphic at #SMD2021. In which the boater is the PM and the lumberjack is the technologist. Feth emphasizes that the program side should have a dual-hatted chief technology officer and dedicated plan to aid in tech transition. Programs lack incentives to evaluate new technologies without bridge planning and people.
Aug 11, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
#SMD2021 the Mid-Range Capability will involve multirole launcher that can fire Tomahawk or SM-6. "We actually have a missile on the rail that can do offensive or defensive fires simultaneously." RCCTO head Thurgood shows some photos of the LRHW delivery and describes the DE-MSHORAD shoot-off.
Aug 11, 2021 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
VCJCS Hyten speaking at #SMDC2020:
"I wanna give the Army a little bit of a hard time...the Space and Missile Defense Command [name]—it's schizophrenic"
"Space is a place, missile defense is a mission."
Knowing laughter as Hyten discusses naming confusion with AAMDC. Hyten: Joint fires, contested logistics, joint c2, information advantage are "supporting concepts" needed by joint force, recently signed strategic directive for services to build requirements.