Umfrageergebnisse einer Bevölkerungsbefragung des Zentrum für Militärgeschichte und Sozialwissenschaften der Bundeswehr zeigen, dass die Wahrnehmung der Bedrohung durch RU und die Unterstützung für die militärische Unterstützung der 🇺🇦 leicht gestiegen ist.

Mini 🧵 /1 Daraus kann die Politik entweder einen Angst- oder Unterwerfungswahlkampf oder einen Case machen, warum die Freiheit verteidigt werden muss und wir dafür mehr ausgeben müssen… /2

Angela Merkel gehört zweifelsohne zu den wichtigsten Persönlichkeiten der 🇩🇪 Nachkriegsgeschichte. Leider beschäftigt ihre «je ne regrette rien» Einstellung zu Russland ihr pol. Erbe. Ihr kluges Spiegel Interview offenbart eine gewisse Unbelehrbarkeit. /1
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… Nord-Stream 2 verteidigt Merkel noch heute als Mittel günstiges Gas für die 🇩🇪 Wirtschaft zu organisieren. Kein Wort über die erzeugte massive Abhängigkeit. Dass Merkel diesbezüglich keinerlei Fehler sieht, muss man ihr und ihren politischen Koalitionspartnern klar vorwerfen. /2

The government and ruling 🚦coalition in Germany collapsed after the chancellor fired the Finance Minister and head of the liberal party. Now, new parliamentary elections will take no later than March 2025. What's next and what does this mean for #Ukraine? Small 🧵 The background: the coalition was bitterly divided over how to handle the sluggish 🇩🇪 economy and future investments, in particular. Polling for all three ruling parties was down (see current polling versus results of 2021) and liberals are fearing for the political survival. /1

Unfortunately, the 🇵🇱-🇺🇦 relations have reached a low point despite mutual security interests in defeating Russia, strong economic ties, millions of 🇺🇦 living and working in 🇵🇱. For 🇺🇦, 🇵🇱 remains the key to interstate into the EU and the West. /1 Smallest statements, like the opinion of @sikorskiradek that one solution of resolving the Crimean question would be to put it unter a UN Mandate, lead to major pushback. /1
interfax.com.ua/news/political…

„Nie wieder Krieg!“ skandiert der Aufruf zu einer bundesweiten Friedensdemonstration am 3. Oktober in Berlin. Die Demo will ein Zeichen der „internationale Solidarität“ senden, aber ich spüre nur Kälte und Indifferenz für die 🇺🇦Opfer des russischen Angriffskriegs /1 Fassungslos lässt mich zurück, dass wahrscheinlich mehrere Zehntausende die Einstellung der Waffenhilfe für die 🇺🇦 fordern werden. Man will ihnen zu brüllen, was das für die Millionen Ukrainer:innen bedeutet, die sich einem rus. Angriffs- & Vernichtungskrieg ausgesetzt sehen. /2

In Kyiv the biggest government reshuffle of the war is ongoing. After recess, the parliament is voting on dismissing several key ministers.
This reshuffle was long in the making. For Zelenskyy it is a normal tool to disrupt and, in his view, strengthen institutions. Longer 🧵 First things first, as @ChristopherJM reported comprehensively on this government reshuffle. What's important to know is that it was months in the making and the President and his team have repeatedly said that personnel changes were coming. /1

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1831258535973265892

After I penned this 🧵, the Ukrenergo scandal escalated even further. Two independent members of the supervisory body of Ukrenergo resigned and issued a sharply worded statement calling Kudrytskyi's removal "politically motivated" without valid grounds. /1
biz.nv.ua/ukr/markets/ch…

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1830901094668546464

In their resignation statement, Daniel Dobeny and Peder Andersen write: "We believe that the decision to prematurely dismiss the head of Ukrenergo is politically motivated and, based on the results of the presented report, there are no valid grounds for it". /2

On the anniversary of Germany launching its brutal invasion of Poland, marking the beginning of World War II, the far-right fascists AfD win state elections in Thuringia & come a close second in Saxony. It’s difficult to describe the shame I feel as a 🇩🇪
?dw.com/en/germanys-fa… The exit polls suggest in Thuringia are bleak. The AfD wins the election with about 33% and the other outspokenly pro-Putin populist Bündnis Sara Wagenknecht scores about 13%. That makes this state essentially ungovernable without either one of the two extreme forces. /2

Es gibt kaum jemanden, der medial so präsent in der Debatte über den russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine ist wie @ralf_stegner. Sein letzter Ukraine Besuch liegt sehr lange zurück. Jetzt reiste er von mir begleitet nach Lviv, Kyiv und Chernihiv. Ein Thread. /1 In der Debatte gehört Stegner zu denjenigen, die sich am meisten um Eskalation & Ausweitung des Krieges sorgen und sich stark für Verhandlungen und nicht militärische Hilfe einsetzen. Dafür muss er sich berechtigte Kritik von Ukrainer:innen und zahllosen Expert:innen anhören. /2

Despite the war, law enforcement keeps working effectively even arresting some high profile people. The Intelligence Service (SBU) and Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) have arrested the Deputy Energy Minister. They caught him red-handed receiving a bribe. /1
pravda.com.ua/news/2024/08/1… According to the investigation, for a bribe of half a million USD, the Deputy Minister promised the heads of state-owned enterprises of the Lviv-Volyn coal basin unhindered transfer of mining equipment from the mines of the front-line region of Donetsk region. /2

New KIIS polling! Small 🧵

The share of those polled ready for territorial concessions rose to 32% and the share of those categorically opposed to any territorial concessions stands at 55% (the lowest since KIIS began such polling in May 2022). /1

EN: kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=…
Interestingly, there is only a small regional variation, and the east and south - most directly affected by the continuous RU onslaught - are most open to potential territorial concessions. /2

Imagine this: Western/European allies take a EUR 150 billion loan to create a 🇺🇦 fund to pay for weapon systems it needs.
The interest cost of ~3 billion EUR p.a. is paid for by proceeds from frozen RU state assets. That we could do NOW and help alleviate financial pressure. /1 This is the idea of Torbjörn Becker, 58, Director of the Stockholm Institutes of Transition Economics (SITE) und Member of the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Sanction. I first read about his idea in this Spiegel interview. /2
spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ukr…

Really interesting @wapo investigation based on over two dozen interviews with Ukrainian and western (former) officials about the daring SBU/HUR operations behind enemy lines and the CIA links with 🇺🇦 domestic & military intelligence services. Small 🧵
washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/… Little did most of us know that over the past nine years significant efforts were undertaken to train and equip both services. The daring and effective 🇺🇦 operations, even if not directly aided by the CIA, are a partially a result of that long-term assistance. /1

The Ukrainian Corridors via the Black Sea continue to export more and more goods from the seaports of the Odesa region. How to make sense of these numbers?Small 🧵

https://twitter.com/OlKubrakov/status/1712859213448286639

According to the U.S. ambassador @USAmbKyiv, 740,000 tons of goods were exported from the three seaports of the Odesa region. These numbers do not only include grain or agricultural products. /1

https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1712475786211709374?s=20

I deeply respect Lena Zerkal but comments like these are irritating. Germany is investing billions into the integration, childcare, healthcare etc. of Ukrainians and integration into the labor market is clearly in the interest of the 🇺🇦 in 🇩🇪. /1
euromaidanpress.com/2023/08/03/ukr… So far, only about 18% of the 1.1 Mio. Ukrainians in Germany work. But 2/3 of those who aren't working say that they want to find work soon. This of course only goes through language skills. 3/4 are attending classes and see their progress of the 🇩🇪 improve. /2

The number of refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status in the EU has risen again above four million. Of these, almost a third were hosted in Germany, according to the European statistics office Eurostat. Small 🧵
zeit.de/politik/2023-0… According to the report, Germany hosted more than 1.1 million Ukrainian citizens and other third-country nationals who fled the war as of the June 30 cutoff date. That is more than in any other country within the European Union. /1

The approval of Stalin as an interesting indicator to describe the differences of values of the Russian and Ukrainian societies.
In RU the approval for the Soviet dictator grew from 28% in 2012 to 63% in 2023 whereas in 🇺🇦 it declined from 23 to 4% in the same period. /1 The graph and the data are from a Kyiv Institute for Sociology (KMIS) survey published on August 3. /2
kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…

Nearly half of Ukrainians held in one of the 35 Russian detention centers in occupied Kherson were subjected to widespread torture including sexual violence, according to a report by international war crime investigators published Wednesday. A small 🧵 /1
cnn.com/2023/08/02/eur… The report contains an analysis of an initial sample of 320 cases of detention in Kherson in more than 35 identified places of detention.
Almost half of the 🇺🇦 held there by the Russians were subjected to widespread torture, including sexual abuse. /2
reuters.com/world/europe/t…

If you read one long-read this weekend, read this harrowing and well researched @APNews article about how Russia is fast expanding its repressive apparatus, well known from the Donbas and Crimea, to all recently annexed 🇺🇦 territories. Small 🪡
apnews.com/article/ukrain… Thousands of Ukrainians in the occupied territories are already known to be jailed, most of them have been tortured, raped and dozens have been executed. The idea that RU would treat the Southeast differently to say Bucha was a wrong believe. /1

Justice at last!

In 2018, Katya Handziuk, a Kherson activist, died after being attacked with acid. Now, the former head of the Kherson Regional Council was found guilty of ordering the attack and an assistant of a regional MP was found guilty of organizing it.

Small 🧵 /1 Kateryna, was a prominent local activist, who participated in both of Ukraine’s Maidans – the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 EuroMaidan. She sharply criticized the work of law enforcement agencies as well as the local authorities in her home town. /2
opendemocracy.net/en/odr/who-ord…

Last fall, Zelenskyy has warned about Russia blowing up the Kakhovka dam and demanded international observers to safeguard the dam. Russia didn’t agree and blew up the dam in early June.
Now, Zelenskyy is explicitly warning us of RU sabotage plans for Zaporizhzhia NPP. /1

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1671805650106474497

In light of a smaller or bigger nuclear catastrophe in Zaporizhzhia, Russia has to be deterred from doing so.

Whether on purpose or not, western leaders have been rather muted in their outcry after Kakhovka. How do they act now? Without fear of consequences, RU will continue. /2