During a presser today, President Zelenskyy hinted at the fact that the fate of the «Drushba» oil pipeline providing Hungary (and Slovakia) with Russian oil directly depends on Hungary‘s veto of the EU accession process. /1
pravda.com.ua/news/2025/08/2… "We have always supported friendship between Ukraine and Hungary. And now the existence of "Druzhba" depends on the position of Hungary." Zelenskyy said during a presser. /2

In yet another blatant attempt to weaken or destroy the country’s independent anti-corruption infrastructure, the Ukrainian parliament is likely to pass legislative amendments that could destroy the country’s post-Maidan anti-corruption architecture. A 🧵 Any discussions about setbacks have to begin with recognizing the immense progress Ukraine made to curb (top level) corruption since 2014. Otherwise, RU trolls or ignorant people might distort the developments. Our 2023 analysis reflects the gains. /1
ukrainian-studies.ca/2023/04/12/the…

Very busy talks today in Berlin on a serious topic: 🇺🇦 civil society is facing an existential crisis. The abrupt halt of U.S. assistance in February 2025 has dealt a devastating blow to the organizations that have been the backbone of 🇺🇦 resilience and democratic reforms. A 🧵


🧵 1/9 On that topic, the German-Ukrainian Bureau just published a policy brief (link below), which we presented and discussed today in Berlin with experts and decision makers. The key notion is: the situation is dramatic, and the key ask: Germany and the EU have to step up.

. @shashj is right: the transcript of the Tucker Carlson interview with Steve Witkoff worth analyzing… What stands out to me is how much he empathizes with Putin and how much he parrots the RU position. That simply doesn’t make a good negotiating strategy. /1

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1903700541777072273

Few examples: Witkoff praises the recent progress and seems to be unaware of previous negotiation efforts in Qatar in the summer of 2024, where both sides already were reportedly close to a moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes. See:

/2 washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/…

The CDU and SPD, the two German parties currently negotiating their new coalition, have ushered in a fiscal revolution that will allow Germany to spend "whatever is needed" on defense and boost infrastructure spending, too. That's a bid deal. Here is what you need to know: /1 Why now? The parties agreed to amend the constitution with the old convocation of the parliament BEFORE the next Bundestag comes into session in about two weeks. They do it because the new convocation, the political forces from the left and right could simply block this move. /2

Fresh polling shows that 67% of Germans back 🇩🇪’s military support for Ukraine. Within this group, 27% favor increasing military aid to Kyiv, while 40% believe 🇩🇪should maintain its current level of support. Only 27% of respondents called for a reduction in weapons deliveries. /1 The poll also shows that a majority of Germans would be in favor of the Bundeswehr participating with other European troops in securing a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. 59% of Germans are in favor of Bundeswehr involvement and 35% are against it. /2

Umfrageergebnisse einer Bevölkerungsbefragung des Zentrum für Militärgeschichte und Sozialwissenschaften der Bundeswehr zeigen, dass die Wahrnehmung der Bedrohung durch RU und die Unterstützung für die militärische Unterstützung der 🇺🇦 leicht gestiegen ist.

Mini 🧵 /1 Daraus kann die Politik entweder einen Angst- oder Unterwerfungswahlkampf oder einen Case machen, warum die Freiheit verteidigt werden muss und wir dafür mehr ausgeben müssen… /2

Angela Merkel gehört zweifelsohne zu den wichtigsten Persönlichkeiten der 🇩🇪 Nachkriegsgeschichte. Leider beschäftigt ihre «je ne regrette rien» Einstellung zu Russland ihr pol. Erbe. Ihr kluges Spiegel Interview offenbart eine gewisse Unbelehrbarkeit. /1
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… Nord-Stream 2 verteidigt Merkel noch heute als Mittel günstiges Gas für die 🇩🇪 Wirtschaft zu organisieren. Kein Wort über die erzeugte massive Abhängigkeit. Dass Merkel diesbezüglich keinerlei Fehler sieht, muss man ihr und ihren politischen Koalitionspartnern klar vorwerfen. /2

The government and ruling 🚦coalition in Germany collapsed after the chancellor fired the Finance Minister and head of the liberal party. Now, new parliamentary elections will take no later than March 2025. What's next and what does this mean for #Ukraine? Small 🧵 The background: the coalition was bitterly divided over how to handle the sluggish 🇩🇪 economy and future investments, in particular. Polling for all three ruling parties was down (see current polling versus results of 2021) and liberals are fearing for the political survival. /1

Unfortunately, the 🇵🇱-🇺🇦 relations have reached a low point despite mutual security interests in defeating Russia, strong economic ties, millions of 🇺🇦 living and working in 🇵🇱. For 🇺🇦, 🇵🇱 remains the key to interstate into the EU and the West. /1 Smallest statements, like the opinion of @sikorskiradek that one solution of resolving the Crimean question would be to put it unter a UN Mandate, lead to major pushback. /1
interfax.com.ua/news/political…

„Nie wieder Krieg!“ skandiert der Aufruf zu einer bundesweiten Friedensdemonstration am 3. Oktober in Berlin. Die Demo will ein Zeichen der „internationale Solidarität“ senden, aber ich spüre nur Kälte und Indifferenz für die 🇺🇦Opfer des russischen Angriffskriegs /1 Fassungslos lässt mich zurück, dass wahrscheinlich mehrere Zehntausende die Einstellung der Waffenhilfe für die 🇺🇦 fordern werden. Man will ihnen zu brüllen, was das für die Millionen Ukrainer:innen bedeutet, die sich einem rus. Angriffs- & Vernichtungskrieg ausgesetzt sehen. /2

In Kyiv the biggest government reshuffle of the war is ongoing. After recess, the parliament is voting on dismissing several key ministers.
This reshuffle was long in the making. For Zelenskyy it is a normal tool to disrupt and, in his view, strengthen institutions. Longer 🧵 First things first, as @ChristopherJM reported comprehensively on this government reshuffle. What's important to know is that it was months in the making and the President and his team have repeatedly said that personnel changes were coming. /1

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1831258535973265892

After I penned this 🧵, the Ukrenergo scandal escalated even further. Two independent members of the supervisory body of Ukrenergo resigned and issued a sharply worded statement calling Kudrytskyi's removal "politically motivated" without valid grounds. /1
biz.nv.ua/ukr/markets/ch…

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1830901094668546464

In their resignation statement, Daniel Dobeny and Peder Andersen write: "We believe that the decision to prematurely dismiss the head of Ukrenergo is politically motivated and, based on the results of the presented report, there are no valid grounds for it". /2

On the anniversary of Germany launching its brutal invasion of Poland, marking the beginning of World War II, the far-right fascists AfD win state elections in Thuringia & come a close second in Saxony. It’s difficult to describe the shame I feel as a 🇩🇪
?dw.com/en/germanys-fa… The exit polls suggest in Thuringia are bleak. The AfD wins the election with about 33% and the other outspokenly pro-Putin populist Bündnis Sara Wagenknecht scores about 13%. That makes this state essentially ungovernable without either one of the two extreme forces. /2

Es gibt kaum jemanden, der medial so präsent in der Debatte über den russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine ist wie @ralf_stegner. Sein letzter Ukraine Besuch liegt sehr lange zurück. Jetzt reiste er von mir begleitet nach Lviv, Kyiv und Chernihiv. Ein Thread. /1 In der Debatte gehört Stegner zu denjenigen, die sich am meisten um Eskalation & Ausweitung des Krieges sorgen und sich stark für Verhandlungen und nicht militärische Hilfe einsetzen. Dafür muss er sich berechtigte Kritik von Ukrainer:innen und zahllosen Expert:innen anhören. /2

Despite the war, law enforcement keeps working effectively even arresting some high profile people. The Intelligence Service (SBU) and Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) have arrested the Deputy Energy Minister. They caught him red-handed receiving a bribe. /1
pravda.com.ua/news/2024/08/1… According to the investigation, for a bribe of half a million USD, the Deputy Minister promised the heads of state-owned enterprises of the Lviv-Volyn coal basin unhindered transfer of mining equipment from the mines of the front-line region of Donetsk region. /2

New KIIS polling! Small 🧵

The share of those polled ready for territorial concessions rose to 32% and the share of those categorically opposed to any territorial concessions stands at 55% (the lowest since KIIS began such polling in May 2022). /1

EN: kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=…
Interestingly, there is only a small regional variation, and the east and south - most directly affected by the continuous RU onslaught - are most open to potential territorial concessions. /2

Imagine this: Western/European allies take a EUR 150 billion loan to create a 🇺🇦 fund to pay for weapon systems it needs.
The interest cost of ~3 billion EUR p.a. is paid for by proceeds from frozen RU state assets. That we could do NOW and help alleviate financial pressure. /1 This is the idea of Torbjörn Becker, 58, Director of the Stockholm Institutes of Transition Economics (SITE) und Member of the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Sanction. I first read about his idea in this Spiegel interview. /2
spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ukr…

Really interesting @wapo investigation based on over two dozen interviews with Ukrainian and western (former) officials about the daring SBU/HUR operations behind enemy lines and the CIA links with 🇺🇦 domestic & military intelligence services. Small 🧵
washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/… Little did most of us know that over the past nine years significant efforts were undertaken to train and equip both services. The daring and effective 🇺🇦 operations, even if not directly aided by the CIA, are a partially a result of that long-term assistance. /1

The Ukrainian Corridors via the Black Sea continue to export more and more goods from the seaports of the Odesa region. How to make sense of these numbers?Small 🧵

https://twitter.com/OlKubrakov/status/1712859213448286639

According to the U.S. ambassador @USAmbKyiv, 740,000 tons of goods were exported from the three seaports of the Odesa region. These numbers do not only include grain or agricultural products. /1

https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1712475786211709374?s=20

I deeply respect Lena Zerkal but comments like these are irritating. Germany is investing billions into the integration, childcare, healthcare etc. of Ukrainians and integration into the labor market is clearly in the interest of the 🇺🇦 in 🇩🇪. /1
euromaidanpress.com/2023/08/03/ukr… So far, only about 18% of the 1.1 Mio. Ukrainians in Germany work. But 2/3 of those who aren't working say that they want to find work soon. This of course only goes through language skills. 3/4 are attending classes and see their progress of the 🇩🇪 improve. /2