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arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999
arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999 Well well well

There is no greater self-own than a VC that can’t justify investing in companies with physical footprint because they get scared of longer return timelines

This like so many issues with the technology industry’s overgrown finance support function boils down to pure skill issue If you as a professional financier can’t talk LPs into a 15-20yr return horizons (with god knows how many opportunities for cashout along the way given even modest success) you should find a different field to work in, maybe underwriting home loans or something more your speed

People who are saying "it's over" every time there's a lukewarm or conservative statement from a lab working on LK-99 have a bad model of academic research

A lot of the big university and state labs have an incentive to slowwalk this for a couple different reasons First, until the supercomputer sims from a few days ago essentially nobody on the physics theory side of things thought this was plausible

A lot of high ego researchers are in either denial or bargaining phase about their approach to this problem space over the last few decades

In the past I have given credit where it was due to Eliezer Yudkowsky for not explicitly advocating violent solutions to the problems with AI development that by his own admission only he and a few other (mostly nontechnical) people see on the horizon

He crossed that line today Since he has graduated from begging the question to openly stating that blowing things and people up is a reasonable thing to do I think we should dispense with the politeness that has been the norm around these discussions in the past

EY does not know what he’s talking about

Immense amount of cope out there rn esp in light of that letter

We are well over the event horizon, people are just gonna have to make peace with the fact that there will be many entities swimming in the pool with us that are many times smarter than the baseline human I say "entities" and not "transformers" because transformers are first and foremost a tool for augmenting humans

Low bandwidth text UI is just the beginning, we will be plugging human brains directly into these and other forms of machine intelligence very soon

One in eight cases of childhood asthma attributable to gas stoves used in the home

Exposure to gas stoves is dangerous, the stats for restaurant workers will be off the charts when they get around to measuring them

mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/1… You really should not need a bunch of studies to work thru the potential negative implications of openly burning a bunch of gas in the middle of your home several times a day but if you do, here are a bunch of studies

From time to time I’ll listen to NPR to get a read on what that particular media bubble is on about

Today the New Yorker Radio Hour did a “the year ahead in sports but”, and started with the Damar Hamlin heart attack

They neglected to mention the spike in similar incidents Instead of being journalistic and asking why it is we have had a significant spike in adverse cardiac events among some of the most physically conditioned people on the planet, they waxed poetic for several minutes about the inherent violence in football

This seems disingenuous

An eleven year sentence for Liz Holmes is wildly excessive She took money from powerful people to advance novel technology

When this didn't pan out as quickly as they demanded and she tried to pivot the company to compete directly with politically powerful testing services like LabCorp and Quest, they had her lynched in the press

At >80% now

Markets tomorrow AM are gonna be wack

https://twitter.com/mattparlmer/status/1587190900752539648

Idk where risk is pooled rn but I think we're about to find out

75bp hike was essentially the Fed committing to a deep recession

I'm at my limit with the Fed and these Treasury Dept-integrated banking houses, the terms of this arrangement need to be renegotiated

Everybody keeps misinterpreting what I'm saying here and what I'm not

Engineers cannot extract a better macroeconomics from their butts just because they are engineers

Engineers can solve a lot of the discrete, concrete, acute problems driving the economy off a cliff

https://twitter.com/wite_wall/status/1588270977498042368

It is plainly obvious that mainstream Keynesian macroeconomics is roughly as scientific as its "heterodox" Austrian and Marxian counterparts

It is an open question whether economic problems qua the global economy can even be modeled, though I'd like people to try

Some fields are categorically better at understanding (and describing, analyzing, predicting) the world than others

Other fields misdirect public resources with toy models

Keep taking shitty fields to task, time's up on lazy social science, especially when it LARPs as physics We do not have the societal decisionmaking breathing room to give macroecon time to fix itself at a leisurely academic pace

Scholar-official macroeconomists went and crashed the dollar (and lot besides) into a wall because their models suck and they don't know what's going on

Normalize entry-level transhumanism

https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1587923087978549249

I've never once seen well thought out plastic surgery end up badly for somebody

People I'm close to have gone under the knife to repair stuff that they were insecure about and it was a big improvement for them

Twitter shipped features at the slowest pace in the industry for years due to managerial infighting and organizational paralysis

Companies rarely pull out of this death spiral, when they do it's because of staff heroics

Doctors pull night shift all time time, engineers can too

https://twitter.com/esthercrawford/status/1587709705488830464

You do overnights when the shit hits the fan so that you don't have to do overnights later

Product needs to ship and sometimes that requires engineer and manager hours in the 70+/wk range

This is why the industry has extremely high TC, unlimited vacation, and flexibility

We need shitpoaster representation on the Twitter safety board to ensure that protection for anon accounts makes it into whatever the new political settlement on here end up being

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587813382706663424

Ideally this person would be a fairly well-established pseudonym account like @eigenrobot

Anons and alts are the heart and soul of this platform and if they get chased out for advertiser legibility reasons it's gonna damage the user experience permanently

Really important to differentiate threats to the careers of objectively incompetent scholar-officials from actual threats to democracy, something that everybody left of center seems to have a problem doing right now While he was incredibly obnoxious and offensive, at no point was Trump himself a threat to democracy

I could be convinced that Jeff Sessions and Bob Barr were to a limited degree, but that's because they are security state supremacists much like Kamala Harris

I don't think people understand yet that a lot of people are gonna have to lose their jobs (and some go to jail for lying to the public/congress) for this to be made right

We're not trying to work out a nice middle position here, the medical-security complex needs to end

https://twitter.com/mbateman/status/1587446562724401152

This is not a moral or culture war issue, incompetent authoritarians in the public health bureaucracy abused emergency powers to crash the global economy and kill a ton of people in the process

These people cannot work in the civil service or in govt-funded research anymore

Tbh I'd be happy with slightly below fair prices plus a cessation of "we're still deploying capital" rhetoric and the tasking of associates to waste founders' time when most firms have shut off the taps

https://twitter.com/micahjay1/status/1587221094691373059

I will say it is kinda funny that "funding risk" is a concept in an industry that is premised on making many high risk bets as parts of a consortium in areas where the primary competition is almost always from legacy industries not emerging players

Moloch strikes again

I think it may be hard for some people to appreciate how pissed off engineers and hard scientists are about the discovery that medicine/public health, economics, and a bunch of other prestige fields have been operating with a fraction of rigor expected in our fields If econ is all you've ever studied, or if the only jobs you've had have been inside the medical guild, you might not even know that people with a minimum of scientific literacy can actually evaluate your literature

See institutional macroecon's reaction to mounting criticism

Howabout no?

A lot of people need to lose their jobs

Some people in the medical establishment need to see jail time

Sow -> Reap

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/… There was no "lack of knowledge" to the same degree that there was purposeful limitation of knowledge and often direct persecution of people bringing new information to light on the part of power-mad institutions and the progressive choir they held in thrall for two years

I notionally majored in econ during my very brief stop at university and took courses from both mainstream Keynesian and wackadoo Austrian profs

I was struck by how similarly cavalier their attitudes were when neither had any actual rigorous data to back up their assertions

https://twitter.com/s_r_constantin/status/1585993465413832705

I never took any courses on Marxist econ but I have a couple pretty thoughtful communist friends and they had similarly strong views based on minimal replicating evidence