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Matt Rowe Profile picture
Matt Rowe
@mattrowsboats
I invest in Startups and use Math, Stats, and Software to design, build, and scale solutions in the Business and Finance worlds.
Jun 18, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
#Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is: Price / 200 Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Price.

It's currently at levels we haven't seen since 2011 and 2015 bear markets.

So if we bought here, and held for N days, what kinds of (historical) returns can we expect?

1/7 🍊 60 Days from now, we have historically seen returns between 1x (breakeven-ish), and 2.3x.

So if you invested $1,000 now, in 60 days you have good historical odds of potentially having between $1,000 and $2,300 (is how to think about this).

2/7
Jun 17, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The Hash Ribbon (via @caprioleio) uses the 30D and 60D SMA of the Hash Rate for #Bitcoin. Use of it can also incorporate the 10D and 20D SMA for Price.

I added something for me. I wondered, "how can I quantify the depth of the 30D-60D difference?" So I did a ratio of them.

🌱🧵 The colors on the top chart (SMA's):
🍎 30D <= 60D (HR)
🍊 30D <= 60D (HR) and 10D <= 20D (Price)

The colors on the bottom chart:
🏳️‍🌈: Historical Percentiles of the Ratio (30D/60D)
Jun 15, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
1/n #Bitcoin update thread.

So where are we at with #Bitcoin? Generational Buying opportunity yet? 😏 2/n
✅ Mayer Multiple at all-time low (lower than that actually since the print of this was from close yesterday).
Apr 13, 2022 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
Z-Scores are a great #Stats tool to help give us some insight into a data set, especially in the #Bitcoin and On-Chain world.

So, what exactly is a Z-Score? What is it good for? What are its limitations? What kinds of Z-Scores are there?

Let's dive in.👇🧵 Before we can talk Z-Scores though, we need to talk Standard Deviation (SD).

What's that you say?

Well, a SD is, essentially, the "average distance from the average (mean)" for a set of data points. Image
Apr 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
So how does Demand for #Bitcoin look at the current moment?

✅⛔️⛔️

🧵👇 ✅ Big Whale cohort stacking hard (10K - 100K #BTC) That seems good-ish.
Apr 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
#Bitcoin Long Term (Months to Years) and Short term (Weeks to Months) Aggregate Risk Metric Gauge. Each incorporates and combines around 12-14 metrics. Image Long Term #BTC Aggregate Risk Metric Chart - Months to Years (37.4%). Combines 12-14 or so Long Term @glassnode metrics. Image