@SplitTicket_ | maps, data, and more | still an ardent supporter of long nebraska
May 17, 2023 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
This article is making the rounds but its conclusion — that Dems built a mobilization campaign that utilized mail voting to turn out their voters — seems faulty when Dems doing poorly on turnout and great on persuasion seems pretty clear from the data! realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/…
For one, I really do not think there was a consensus that Rs would gain 20-40 House seats (or even more) in 2022. 20? sure, 40 is really pushing it. There was plenty of discussion about why 2022 might not be a red wave before the election! The Senate was widely seen as a Toss Up!
Dec 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Mizeur’s strength in the college-ed parts of MD-01 isn’t too surprising, but her numbers in the rural, R-trending parts *after Biden rebounded there* shocked me.
real ones believe in the NV > MI > CT > NC primary setup
White non-college-
US: 40%
NV: 44%
MI: 48%
CT: 42%
NC: 34%
White college-
US: 24%
NV: 19%
MI: 19%
CT: 35%
NC: 21%
Black-
US: 20%
NV: 15%
MI: 28%
CT: 11%
NC: 38%
Hispanic-
US: 9%
NV: 11%
MI: 1%
CT: 6%
NC: 2%
4 state average-
White non-college: 42% (US average of 40%)
White college: 24% (US average of 24%)
Black: 23% (US average of 20%)
Hispanic: 5% (US average of 9%)
Nov 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
fwiw I don’t really agree that Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is an immediate underdog. WA-03 is Trump +4.2%. The trendline isn’t super clear but Biden could plausibly do better there in 2024. But even if he doesn’t, or he does a little worse, it’s not a huge hill to climb
WA-03 was like Smiley +7 I think? Gluesenkamp Perez could overperform Biden by half as much as she did Murray and still win. If she overperforms Biden at all she’s likely within striking distance. All I’m saying is that, with so much still in the air, I see this as a Toss Up
Nov 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
easy for me to craft a “in retrospect, we should’ve seen this coming” narrative for both parties should one of them do unexpectedly well. I’ve put my chips down somewhere in the middle but my brain is filled with every factor that may either be prophetic or a red herring
“Of course, fundamentals were always gonna determine this elections. Voters hate the economy, Biden is mired in the low 40s and has been for a year. It was always gonna be foolish to place any bets on the party in power, extenuating circumstances be damned.”
Nov 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
538’s polling average for GA-Sen (Walker +0.0%) is a little worse than PA-Sen’s (Fetterman +0.3%) but I find myself thinking I’m likely to lean Georgia Democratic, whereas I’m quite torn on Pennsylvania. There are a few reasons for this:
For one, it’s relatively clear to me that Oz’s position has improved, whereas I’m not really sure Walker’s has (if anything, his scandals do seem to have taken their toll on him)? NYT had Walker’s favorables worse than Oz’s, even as Fetterman’s lead was larger than Warnock’s
Aug 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
After losing an election, the out-party usually recalibrates and runs against whatever unpopular legislation the administration puts forward. Republicans in 2022 seem more interested in rehashing 2020 and the dominant unpopular policy change has been one of their own making
It is unusual that something like Trumpism, which notably cost them all 3 branches of government in four years despite granting them structural biases in their favor, would remain so virulently in control of a party. Candidates like Mastriano or Lake don’t scream “recalibration”
Aug 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I tend to think that the abortion campaign did a good enough job of being visible enough to voters that the language didn’t matter, but given that voters tend to default toward No, especially when confronted with confusing language, I find the KS GOP’s ploy there confounding
Colorado rejected an amendment that would’ve abolished slavery as a punishment for crime due to bad ballot language! (They later rectified this and it easily passed)
Aug 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Dobbs hasn’t changed the overall trajectory of the midterms and Republicans remain on track to do well, perhaps even very well. But that will happen in spite of, and not because of, Dobbs and their own candidate recruitment
Although, If Democrats do manage to eke out a Senate win, for instance, it’s quite possible Dobbs will be responsible
Jun 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I feel like the answer to why people are having less children has a lot to do with the fact that rearing children in modern society requires a huge amount of time, energy, and money per child? Plus the fact that we value self fulfillment for both ourselves and our children
Like yes monetary cost is a major factor but beyond that, children in modern, wealthy societies demand a lot more than being raised to work a farm until they’re old enough to marry and start a family. They need to be educated, pursue careers and hobbies fulfilling to them, etc
Jun 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Interesting tidbits with this poll:
Cox leads Schulz 30-18% among non-college Republicans, while Schulz counters with a nearly identical 31-18% lead among college-ed Republicans.
Cox also leads 31-19% among conservative Rs, whereas Schulz leads 29-13% among moderate Rs
The practically three-way tie among the Democratic gubernatorial candidates is separated by age;
Franchot is at 3% (!!) with voters 18-34, but at 27% with voters 55+.
Moore and Perez are basically tied with voters 18-34 and 55+, but Moore leads Perez 18-10% among 35-55
Jun 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Long term goal here, but given the end of Roe, the pressure is on for Texas Dems, who are living in America’s 2nd largest state and one that has imposed some of the strictest abortion bans. Expanding abortion access here would help millions. In particular, winning in 2030 is key.
If they can win the governorship and at least three of House Speaker, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, and Land Commissioner in 2030, then the GOP loses control of redistricting in the state. Winning a trifecta in TX is Dems’ only hope of reversing its abortion bans.
Apr 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
So barring a major change (NY or FL maps being struck down), looks like the final post-redistricting breakdown will be 227 Biden seats, 208 Trump seats, a gain of 5 seats for Biden relative to 2020.
The two remaining wild cards are MO and NH. In MO, it’s possible although imo unlikely that the eventual map is 5-3 Trump, which would flip another seat to Biden. In NH, it looks like we’re headed for two Biden seats, unless Sununu caves.
Oct 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Biden’s approval seems like, genuinely pretty bad now? like we’re past the point of him being underwater by just two or three points. He’s down 8 points per 538, and we’ve gotten several poor polls from him out of bluer states
two things I’m curious to see more about
-Dems seem to be outperforming Biden on the generic ballot, does it stick?
-whether or not Biden’s approval remains substantially higher with college ed voters or if that is just a kind of mirage
