The system is working the way it is designed to work. Just because the aggregate balance is going down doesn’t mean the peg is about to break. With a peg there will always be upward or downward pressure unless the HK-US economic cycles are perfectly aligned, which is rare

1/

https://twitter.com/mbrookerhk/status/1670437260494266369

Analyses that say “HK has spent XX billion defending the peg” are simplistic, conjuring a breathless image of central bankers sitting in a room battling speculators, in place of what is largely an automatic mechanism.

I don’t think economics will break the peg. But…

2/

There should be some general public warning about how changing your phone destroys your life. iCloud backup? Don’t make me laugh. *Nothing* worked after the backup was completed. Days later, I am still trying to piece my life back together To clarify: some things worked, like newspaper apps. Just nothing important: banks, credit cards, other finance apps, Facebook, twitter, authenticator app (lost forever) etc etc.

But why is no one dancing in this video? Surely happy people dance. All the time Meanwhile, the line here is basically “yes, we did it but look at the order and stability”. I’m sure the trains run on time in Xinjiang

A growing exodus of Hong Kong residents is shrinking the city's workforce and undermining its economic outlook @krystalchia @hayleywong354

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @business @krystalchia @hayleywong354 @business "Since August 2018, Hong Kong’s labor force has dropped about 6% to 3.75 million people, near a decade-low... In April alone, the total number of employed and those looking for work fell by about 33,700, the most on record based on data going back to 1990. "

A short thread on the political culture of Hong Kong, as of 2022, compiled from the Legco record of proceedings for July 6:

TANG KA-PIU: We are grateful and excited that President XI came to Hong Kong in person to deliver an important speech... KENNETH LAU: I am very grateful to President XI Jinping for coming to Hong Kong in person... and for delivering to us an important speech...

2/

A fantasy document that again holds out “One Country, Two Systems” as a blueprint for Taiwan, a model that the CCP discredited for all time when it destroyed freedom in Hong Kong

Full Text: The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era english.news.cn/20220810/df9d3… “It ensured the smooth return of Hong Kong and Macao to China, and applied the policy of One Country, Two Systems, which had a constructive impact on the settlement of the Taiwan question.”

If China wants any progress, at some point it will have to acknowledge reality

Don’t misinterpret the departure of Hong Kong’s most unpopular leader as a belated victory for public pressure. Beijing views the city primarily as a security issue, and that won’t change - whatever the damage to its role as a financial hub

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion I found Lam’s valedictory press conference quite revealing. Not a single mention, not the most oblique nod, to the people of the society she has been governing for the past five years. By contrast, there were fulsome and obsequious tributes to various arms of the central govt

The West, and especially America, is principally responsible for the crisis which began in February 2014, writes political scientist John Mearsheimer. If you want a good introduction to that line of thinking, this is probably about as good as it gets

economist.com/by-invitation/… Here's Mearsheimer in 2015:

"What they're doing is not trying to conquer Ukraine. There are many people who say the Russians are going to go on a rampage, they're going to try and re-establish the Soviet Union or a greater Russia and so forth and so on...

Get used to the dissonance. China’s just fine with the contradictions in its Ukraine position, if yesterday’s appearance by Foreign Minister Wang Yi is any guide

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion Wang inveighed against the “cold war mentality” in his diatribe against the US -- but his own comments on China’s foreign relations revealed how deeply locked into cold-war thinking Beijing is

2/

This man is a chef. On the night of July 21, 2019, he left work and walked out of the Yoho Mall in Yuen Long to see a crowd of about 100 men, all carrying sticks and metal rods

1/ He was attacked without provocation and chased, leaving his back covered with with welts. A complaint to the police yielded no result

2/

Hong Kong Saturday night musings

It’s easy to see there’s confusion out there in the world about what Hong Kong is and what’s happening to it. 1/ Hong Kong is part of China, right? It was stolen by British pirates in the 19th century, who forced a weak Chinese government to give it up so the British could use it as a trading post to sell opium and other things. 2/

Was just musing about the 2014 annual report of Hang Lung Properties, as I do from time to time. Is there a better long-term bearish bet in the world than Hong Kong real estate? 1/ The city is being torn apart by violent protests. It is the least affordable property market in the world, and has been for years. And the Centa-City Leading Index has only just begun to turn down, dropping 2.6% from its June peak.

So I have a few things to say about Hong Kong and it may take some time 1/ I arrived at Hang Hau at 12.25am by bus on my way home. The MTR was shuttered and there was a crowd outside shouting angrily at a line of police vans, 走啊！屌你老母！and reclaim Hong Kong, 时代革命