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Mark Copelovitch Profile picture
Mark Copelovitch
@mcopelov
Professor @uwpolisci @UWLaFollette @ESatUWMadison. Jean Monnet Chair: EU & the Global Economy. 2024: @AmericanAcademy @WZB_Democracy. IPE, IR, politics, policy.
Brendo RN Profile picture Puneet Kollipara Profile picture Mary Waggener Profile picture Geoff Carr Profile picture 4 subscribed
Mar 9 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Today, class, we will once again discuss “revealed preferences”

If the “nation” were actually “craving change,” then we would have observed a mainstream challenger to Biden gaining widespread support in the Democratic primaries, & a different result in the Republican primaries. Prominent Dem Senators/governors could have challenged Biden, as McCarthy/RFK did in 1968 & TK did in 1980. They chose not to do so. Prominent GOPers did challenge Trump & got crushed. We should give voters credit for their choices & believe them when they tell us who they want.
Jan 1 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Happy 2024. Since we're still pretzeling ourselves to explain why folks think the economy is bad despite all the data, here's the latest update of media coverage of inflation/recession vs unemployment/recovery, thru 12/31/23. The truly astounding imbalances persist even in Q423. Image One can argue the tone's shifted, & that's likely true on inflation & recession since Oct, but framing even the good economic news through the lenses of inflation/recession still shapes public opinion. And the near total lack of coverage of the unprecedented recovery is shocking.
Jun 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The new angle, apparently, is to invent some idea that there are now novel “internal politics” in a monetary policy institution. Really, it would just be easier to admit that your personal preferences continue to be different than the Fed’s & not imply others are incoherent. Politics. Politics, I tell you!
Jun 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Pretty amazing that we’ve had a near-total & unprecedentedly rapid recovery, while 🇪🇺 is well on its way to a second Lost Decade in a row, all for the price of an inflation premium barely higher than the long-term historical gap between 🇺🇸 & 🇪🇺

Once again, the key takeaway here is that the story you were told for 2 years about 🇺🇸 fiscal policy being the main cause of inflation - & 🇪🇺 being supporting evidence - was a deeply parochial one that could have been avoided by tracking the freely available cross-national data.
Jun 15, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Counterpoint: it will be states, and primarily superpowers It will still be states, climate change edition

Jun 7, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The less straw man 2 ways are:

1. Getting to 2% isn't "easy" but is happening. It's just taking far longer than anyone predicted given the shocks ()

2. There are tradeoffs that aren't worth it or compatible with the Fed's mandate () Lots of folks seem to be arguing 2. I don't know anyone serious who's claiming 1 is "easy." And again, the asymmetry of the concern about getting quickly back to 2% starkly constrasts with the notable lack thereof during a decade of undershooting.

Jun 7, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This. This isn’t making “tough choices.” It’s not taking the dual mandate seriously. It’s a personal preference for privileging inflation over the other part of the mandate. That’s fine, but own it. Don’t couch it in the language of mature responsibility.

Image This view is how we undershot the inflation target for most of a decade
Jun 6, 2023 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
One reason we never seriously wrestled w/ Obama's (& Clinton's) fiscal policy errors, was that Trump's & GWB's fiscal policies were so obviously & clownishly bad that O/C got free passes for totally embracing the household analogy & the deficit hackery (cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/st…). ImageImageImage Re: Clinton: The idea that the late 1990s was a time for the country issuing the global reserve currency to run a budget <surplus> given <gestures at interest rates, global capital flows & decades of public underinvestment in everything> was just mind-boggling fiscal malfeasance. ImageImageImageImage
Jun 6, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It’s almost as if…the country issuing the global reserve currency, w/ a flexible exchange rate, in an age of unprecedented global capital flows, doesn’t face the urgent & hard fiscal constraints so many folks in the National Conversation™️ claim it does

Yes, we should have a serious convo about debt, deficits, taxes, & spending. But if the same dire predictions made with debt/GDP at 40%, 60%, & 80% keep not happening, & 🇺🇸/world interest rates keep doing 👇, we need a different frame for understanding actual fiscal constraints. ImageImageImage
Jun 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The knowledge, deep down, that this is almost certainly true, one suspects, has driven much of the backlash by certain economists against the macroeconomic policies of Biden & Powell. Fully reckoning with the disaster of 2008-18 must be deeply painful.

ImageImageImageImage In re:
Apr 25, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
It’s striking, here in the 🇺🇸, how we talk constantly about US debt & invoke it as part of broader endless discussions of 🇺🇸’s/the dollar’s inevitable hegemonic decline, while we completely ignore 🇨🇳’s vastly more serious debt problems amidst all the New Cold War hysteria 🤔🤷‍♂️ We're in the midst of a National Conversation™️ about how the country issuing the global reserve currency is on the brink of a debt crisis (), & panicking about 🇨🇳 taking over the world, when its debt burdens are far less sustainable than ours. It vexes me. ImageImageImage
Apr 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I don't really know what to tell you, other than you, also, saw the man ride a train ten hours to stand with Zelensky in 🇺🇦 & do literally every aspect of his job better than any of his predecessors in decades these last 2 years. Yes, he's old, but this is lazy ageist nonsense. Image Would it be better if younger Dems were in charge? I don't really know. The best POTUS & Speaker in the last 50+ years are octogenarians. The young guy who gave great speeches had a lot of qualities but also presided over the party's nationwide decimation & a Lost Decade. YMMV.
Apr 17, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
2+ years. Even now, after a complete and unprecedented economic recovery, record job growth, & ultra-low unemployment. The Narrative™️ cannot fail. It can only be failed. 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

Why aren’t people noticing the falling inflation, & why does everyone think we’re in a recession & the economy is terrible? 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️
Apr 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Along with the frontal assault on democracy & the rule of law, the other great Challenge of Our Time 😂

nytimes.com/2023/04/14/din…
Apr 16, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1000x this, amidst all the 1000s of signs of Whatever You Want To Call It (But Don't Call It That).

Is it fascism ()? SeMi-FaSCism ()? Some novel 🇺🇸 21st-century brand of far right authoritarianism? On some narrow level, this matters. Mostly, it's a diversion. Normalizing whatever-you-call-it is the problem: twitter.com/search?q=%40mc…
Apr 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
We call this move “reverse emails” and it has been going on for seven years now, because

<all together now>

“Neither our media nor our political system is designed to deal with a far right authoritarian party”

You were told that "Every Day Is Jan 6 Now" & "the Republic faces an existential threat from a movement...openly contemptuous of democracy.” But the Paper of Record didn’t really mean that, as it’s shown you on a regular basis in the two subsequent years 🤷‍♂️ ImageImage
Apr 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Austerity is bad, not only because it causes needless & incredibly costly Lost Decades (e.g., frbsf.org/economic-resea…), but because it is deeply corrosive for democratic politics. Important work now published from @SattlersThomas @EveHubscher & Markus Wagner. This political consequence of austerity, of course, is exactly what the famous economists railing against "overheating" in 2021 & ever since, have largely failed to grasp. I wrote about that a bit then & even w/ the inflation since, I have the same ?s now

markcopelovitch.com/post/on-stimul… ImageImage
Mar 13, 2023 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
More capital. Always, more capital: Unless you believe we're going to quickly & radically transform the structural features of the US' highly securitized financial system, the other regulatory reforms - on size, activity, Glass-Steagall II, etc, are not going to work. Capital. More capital.

cambridge.org/core/books/ban…