Beyond the Runway: Decoding the Airline Industry's Interconnected Ecosystem in India

Next time you think about Airlines, do not stop at Indigo, Boeing or Airbus, there is a big ecosystem beyond the airlines (1/21) A while back I had written a deep dive on Indigo.

This is amongst the Top 10 all time reads of my threads.

In case you have not read the piece, here’s the link. (2/21)

https://x.com/mehrotra_saket/status/1958007252389863681

Indian Capital markets are burgeoning.

Pure play brokers are now moving to Integrated business models.

Let’s explore how this transformation is reshaping firms like Zerodha, IIFL Capital, and Angel One.

A thread 👇 (1/17) The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has made its stance clear: derivatives are meant for hedging, not speculation. (2/17)

Interglobe Aviation's stock soars to new heights daily.

Few know the drivers behind this cash-generating giant.

I've tracked Indigo for over a decade; here's a concise thread 👇 (1/23) When it comes to aviation, it is no longer about demand, it is about the supply.

There is a massive 'constraint' first at the plane manufacturer level and then at the engine maker (2/23)

Almost 3 and a half years ago, I had put out a thread publicly saying that hopping on to the hotels 'unlock trade' bandwagon was probably not a good idea.

While the thread fixated on the cost structures, risks to a typical hotels business and what went wrong, but it missed a very simple point.

Operating Leverage!

What if we went right?

What if Demand stayed where it was and how could the earnings explode?

An update. (1/n) In the time frame from 2021 to 2024, this is how the industry has fared.

Industry Bellwether IHCL - swung from EBITDA of 400 cr. in FY22 to 2300+ cr. TTM in 3 year time frame, stock up 3x

EIH - (-)34 cr. to 930 cr. + in the same time frame, stock up 4x

While this is how the luxury segment has performed, if you pull out other names, you will find a similar story. (2/n)

You may have heard of Operating Leverage.

Or the fact that Operating Leverage is about to kick in ⚽

What kind of Leverage is this?

Is their more?

Find out all about Operating, Financial and Combined Leverage ⬇️ (1/15) When you Google 'Leverage', it will give you this answer:

'the act of using a lever to lift or open something; the force needed to do this'

So whether you are Levering up your Balance Sheet (using debt) or letting Operating Leverage kick in (in your PnL) it's the same. (2/15)

पैसे पेड़ पर नहीं उगते!
'Money does not grow on trees!'

But what if, it did? - asked a friend who recently completed watching Farzi

What if we could print more money, buy things we wanted to and well, live on. There is an old adage regarding this.

And in case you are wondering, it is exactly on the lines of socialism vs. capitalism.

Let's say the world has exactly 1000 people and 1000 chickens.

⚠️ Scam 2022 - How I saved myself from paying fraudsters 🤯

A thread that can save you & your hard - earned money 💰

2 weeks back, I get a call from a tele - caller impersonating as an HDFC Life agent.

Read on 👇 Very professionally, the person tells me my father had a policy for which he had paid premiums for 2 years.

It was a 8/16 policy - wherein he had to pay premium for 8 years and get money after 16.

Since he had paid premiums for 2 years, the policy has lapsed. (1/n)

Everyone knows about HUL, P&G, Marico, Britannia, ITC - you name it.

Have you ever heard of Paras Pharmaceuticals?

And more importantly - Darshan Bhai Patel.

Here's a thread on the unsung and unknown hero of the Indian FMCG world ⬇️

A Thread (1/n) 'Aur, kya chal raha hai?' , 'Fogg chal raha hai!'

If you're living in India chances are you've heard this not just in the TV or digital media but someone actually telling this to you in a conversation.

(2/n)

As the festive season is all around us, we would probably be going out - more often than not swiping our card at multiple points of sale.

You may not think twice before swiping because of a deeply embedded cognitive bias.

Allow me to introduce you to denomination bias 👇 (1/n) There are multiple cognitive biases all around us? Before I get to denomination bias, let's understand what a cognitive bias is in the first place.

You see, on a daily basis we may actively try and take decisions but a lot of times there are blindspots. (2/n)

Threads I have written so far ⬇️ Deep dive on 22+ companies ⬇️

https://twitter.com/mehrotra_saket/status/1382391871054381056?s=20

Just started reading the Tips FY21 Annual Report. Here are a few interesting anecdotes ⬇️ I have hardly seen promoters talk about what has gone wrong or what did not work out.

This year's annual address, does hit a little different.

But first things first - let's start with the first insight.

Tips aspires to be amongst the Top 3 music companies in India (1/n)

For quite some time, people have been waiting for a crash to happen.

Whether it is the Zomato IPO or the valuations of Info Edge, everyone thinks it is overvalued.

And finally - What happens to the markets now?

A thread ⬇️ (1/n) Well, let me begin by answering the last question.

What happens to the markets now?

Inspired by my CIO on this, asking this question is as good as asking - "Will my girlfriend be happy tomorrow?"

No one knows! (2/n)

Are you someone who's starting out to invest?

Are you someone who has probably been investing but at some point realized what is the point of doing it?

Let's try and break things down.

This is a thread on Savings, Inflation, Risk, Return, Equity and everything in between 👇 Let's first start with the concept of Savings.

Maybe you're in a job, run a business or may have just completed an internship.

What gets credited in your account is your 'Income'.

Whatever amount goes out in 'spending' is your 'Expenses'. (1/n)

For almost seven years, I have tracked the hotels space very closely.

While everyone wants to jump on the 'unlock trade' bandwagon, I do not feel it's a great idea because the business model in itself is a little flawed.

Here's a thread 👇 (1/n) Let's first start with the industry overview.
The whole industry works on one and one thing only. Revenues. (Let's call this A)

Are you capable of charging higher Revenues from your customers on a regular basis?

Are you able to maintain your Revenues if not increase them? (2/n)

For almost two months I have been doing a deep dive on the Music Streaming space.

Time for a thread to understand what's really going on here 👇 (1/n) The Past

No one in the music industry made money from 90's through 2000's because there was rampant piracy.

Piracy was rampant because of two reasons.

It was Cheap and it was Convenient.

This led to heavy loss of revenues for the artist, label and the producer. (2/n)

This week I completed doing a deep dive on 22+ companies from almost various sectors as a part of the weekly webinar series for the Beta to Alpha cohort.

This was also coupled with 10+ premium reads with extensive deep dive on research.

Here's a mega thread 👇 (1/n) #001 - Solara Active Pharma Sciences & API

What we liked:
- Structural shift in manufacturing from China to India
- Clean and strong promoter track record
- TPG Capital entering early at a heavy premium

Risks:
- Commodity Business
- Regulatory Compliance (2/n)

Often a very underappreciated and less-talked about trait in investing / trading is the behavioural psychology.

You see, having an informational edge today is no longer something that's restricted to the 'elite' or the 'inner circle'.

Read on 👇 At the click of a button, you get access to tons of data, analyst reports, investor presentations and what not.