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Mixed Signals Profile picture
Mixed Signals
@mentalplex
Grumpy personal account of a medical data scientist. I study the evidence practice gap.
Feb 23, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
AZ dispensing rate thread:

As mentioned earlier, @CDCgov changed the way it reported certain vaccine data last week. While I finalize a new analysis pipeline, let's catch up on the state data.

Previous thread is linked:
As of 2021-02-21 (yesterday):

@AZDHS data
14-day model meets target coverage between 2021-09-30 and 2021-12-13.

Note that the 21 day model through 2021-02-21 meets target coverage before the 14-day model. See the explainer, this pattern is something we're on the lookout for.
Feb 21, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
AZ dispensing rate thread:

I mentioned there were a few quirks in the CDC data yesterday. More to investigate, but for now, doses administered by day violates some assumptions required for a useful model. I'll post the graph, but take the 7-day model with a grain of salt. @CDCgov data
84% of doses are in arms
7-day model isn't valid (see above), but meets doses on hand 2021-02-24

@AZDHS
14-day model meets target coverage between 2021-09-24 and 2021-12-05

Yesterday's thread is linked: ImageImage
Dec 19, 2020 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
An RNA vaccine explainer, with background:

Part 1: How do your cells make things? Each cell in your body with a nucleus contains all the plans needed to make another you, as DNA. These plans are stored in the nucleus (an envelope inside the cell). They need to stay just as they are, for generations, and need to be copied without error when your cells divide.