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Gabriel Recchia Profile picture
Gabriel Recchia
@mesotronium
Cognitive scientist, research associate at University of Cambridge Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication
May 6, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Our paper on how well experts and laypeople forecast the size of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK (back in April) is out: journals.plos.org/plosone/articl… @d_spiegel @alex_freeman Short answer: Not very, though experts were much better than nonexperts. Both groups underestimated it 1/8 Everyone was asked to make four predictions for all of 2020 - total UK deaths, UK infections, world infection fatality rate, UK infection fatality rate. And to pick two numbers where they were 75% sure the true value would fall in between. 2/8