I really commend @StearsInsights for creating a data-driven model to predict the results of Nigeria's 2023 presidential election. Having said that, I think most people are misinterpreting the polling data and distorting expectations. So here's a 🧵with some critiques 1/X
A good election model answers two questions: (1) who do people support and (2) who's likely to turn out on the day and actually vote? They've done a reasonably good job on the first but a poorer job on the second 2/X
