midnucas #FueraLUMA 🇵🇷 Profile picture
Colonial subject, not your "fellow American." He/él/ele/lui. Mastodon: https://t.co/QfP6jKKJac IG: https://t.co/pZqgCYrVw8
Feb 20 8 tweets 3 min read
Why is "Estragos Unidos" (United Havoc) trending Image It's the Brazilians, they got meme power for sure

"Look, Simba... everything the United States touches turns into war."
Feb 26, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
I ran a (still crude) analysis of how the CDC's new Community Levels map would have performed in Puerto Rico's Omicron wave. It wouldn't have hit "High" (= masks required) until at least Dec. 27, by which point the case rate had risen by 5,800% in two weeks. Notes:

1. Case rates are my own analysis of my latest Puerto Rico Dept. of Health Bioportal data. Test sample date, 1-3 days ahead of official data. (I hope to refine this to contemporaneous data.)

2. Hospital admissions: HHS

3. Hospital occupancy: Puerto Rico DoH dashboard
Feb 25, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
El gobierno de Puerto Rico no publica todos los datos necesarios para calcular esto: cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

Notablemente, los ingresos hospitalarios. HHS sí publica, pero no me fio mucho de los números de ellos de Puerto Rico. Esto es una especie de blitzkrieg informático por parte del CDC. No dejan tiempo para análisis y debate público sobre si este indicador está bien diseñados. Ahora tengo que irme de corre-y-corre a implementarlos para ver cómo aplican a Puerto Rico. Suerte tengo las métricas.
Nov 2, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Puerto Rico; Remember Gregorio Matias, the cop senator who once shot a dude for being Dominican? Today after chasing a black Infiniti Q50 with tinted windows, San Juan police arrested his 27 year-old son and a 2nd man, with drugs, ski mask, body armor and a full auto modded Glock The other man was the driver, and he didn’t have a license. The police add that the senator’s son has an earlier criminal record.

Oct 29, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
This scenario, for those who don’t grasp it, is what if

1. The Confederates fled to Puerto Rico in 1865, declared it capital of the Confederacy, and established a dictatorship

2. The Yauco rebels overthrew the Confederates in 1897 and declared Puerto Rico independent And in this already rather fanciful scenario:

3. The USA claimed that because of the 1865 Confederate takeover, Puerto Rico was part of the USA, labeled the Yauco rebels as secessionists and went to war against them
Oct 27, 2021 10 tweets 6 min read
Anti-prostitution advocates have been plastering the press with the claim that Spain "the third biggest centre for prostitution in the world, behind Thailand and Puerto Rico." The Puerto Rico bit caught my eye, so I checked... and it's made it up, I believe. The source for the claim appears to be a blatant misreading of a p. 49 of the UNODC 2010 report "The globalization of crime," that cites sundry figures for men who claim to have paid for sex in their lifetime, and makes no attempt to rank countries.
unodc.org/unodc/en/data-… Image
Oct 26, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
The student body of the University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez is going on indefinite strike, demanding that Puerto Rico's legislature reject the USA's debt adjustment plan the implies cuts to the UPR, and that the UPR be declared an essential service. That "essential service" bit needs some context. The USA's PROMESA Act says that the USA's Puerto Rico junta must "ensure the funding of essential services." The Junta, however, has not in four year declared any list or policy about what services are "essential." Image
Oct 26, 2021 11 tweets 7 min read
Me puse a cotejar y esto que dice @el_pais sobre la prostitución en Puerto Rico parece ser dudoso.

Lo sustentan citando un reportaje de ellos mismos, que a su vez cita como fuente un estudio del 2016 de Fondation Scelles.

elpais.com/sociedad/2021-… Image El estudio de Scelles parece ser este. Pero no reclama ser la fuente original de esto, sino que a su vez cita un informe del 2015 de Eurostat sobre el tráfico humano.

fondationscelles.org/pdf/RM4/1_Book… ImageImage
Oct 17, 2021 13 tweets 5 min read
There's a narrative growing that Puerto Rico's (relative) success (so far) in the pandemic is due to vaccinations and that's it. But I think this is only one part of the story, and that various other factors are plausibly no less important. For example: free rapid testing. The CDC does not publish an antigen testing dataset in the various states and counties, only PCR. But the government of Puerto Rico does publish antigen test data, and the very remarkable observation is that they're up to 2 rapid tests for each PCR.

(My charts of PRDoH data) Image
Oct 1, 2021 26 tweets 9 min read
Puerto Rico: Today there's a big protest against LUMA US-imposed private electric monopoly that charges a lot more but doesn't provide reliable power. This one is "LUMA's dirty laundry," with items like "they burn my house down" and "hospitals without power." LUMA burning houses down is a real thing:
Sep 29, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
The student body at the University of Puerto Rico in Mayagüez asked the campus rector for an emergency academic recess because they can’t study without electricity. He denied them, so now students are shutting down the campus. The rector has announced a moratorium on test and any other student evaluations until Monday.
Sep 29, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
La propaganda de LUMA y el régimen Pierluisi es que los apagones los causan fallas en plantas de la AEE, y que por eso como LUMA no es dueña de la generación, no tienen nada que ver. Pero entiendo que es falso y que LUMA está optando no usar capacidad de generación alterna. Bracero: "No entiendo por qué Luma no ha dado orden de prenderlas a menos que haya una avería en todas ellas o simplemente no la deseen prender para evitar seguir usando energía más cara la cual ha sido parte de las razones para subir la luz."
Sep 29, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Brazil's Senate has been running an investigation on the Covid response for a few months now, and the quiet parts have been coming out quite loudly: what rulers seek isn't so much to protect their people, but to "give people hope" so that businesses can make a quick buck. This particular testimony is related to an insurer/HMO called Prevent Senior that is currently being accused of falsifying cause of death records for covid patients in order to claim that hydroxychloroquine was an effective treatment for Covid.
Aug 20, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
Back when he was running for election Biden said he'd promote mass rapid testing, but now it turns out that due to lack of demand, Abbott shut down in June and July the two factories making its BinaxNOW antigen test and destroyed the remaining inventory.
nytimes.com/2021/08/20/us/… I'm worried that this could be particularly disastrous for Puerto Rico, where two thirds of tests are rapid antigen tests (red), and I believe mostly BinaxNOW. Particularly so in towns that are underserved by clinical labs. Dunno what inventory the government has acquired.
Aug 20, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
COVID-19 en Puerto Rico, 20/agosto/2021: El efecto de la avería del Bioportal esta semana se ve en esta gráfica. Antes de la avería, el 80%+ de los datos que se recibían a diario eran de pruebas el mismo día o el anterior. La avería atrasó un día y bajó esto a 60% temporeramente. El volumen de pruebas anda por niveles récord, especialmente las pruebas de antígeno (curva roja), que son 2/3 de las pruebas que se hacen.
Aug 20, 2021 5 tweets 4 min read
Estudio de simulación de las universidades estatales de Carolina del Norte modela una escuela elemental hipotética en que los 500 estudiantes usan mascarillas, se les hacen pruebas moleculares regularmente y se aislan los casos... y "solo" 21% se contagian en un semestre. 😰 La página sobre el estudio: covsim.hosted-wordpress.oit.ncsu.edu/school-level-m…

Tienen en YouTube dos videos en que dan la presentación en español, de ahí es que saco las diapositivas que pego:

Aug 19, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Puerto Rico: How many votes were cast for governor, divided by population 18+. Census Bureau data, up to the 2020 census. 81.5% in 1980, 45.7% in 2020. One often hears claims that the official voter participation numbers (e.g., 55% in 2020) underestimate true participation in recent years because so many Puerto Ricans have fled the archipelago but don't get purged promptly from the voter lists. This one doesn't have that bias.
Aug 19, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Yo hasta que no vea las hospitalizaciones frenarse no me fío. Y menos con la avería de datos que acaba de ocurrir que no entiendo si se ha superado plenamente, y la reapertura de las escuelas que cambia todo. Y aún si la ralentización sea real, no significa que vaya a caer. Miren el Reino Unido: ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk
Aug 19, 2021 4 tweets 3 min read
This thread reminds me that a few years ago the make Puerto Rico a state people loved to cite a 2017 poll by local paper El Nuevo Día that predicted that statehood would get 60% of the vote.

The same poll also predicted that voter participation would be 72%. It was 23%. The English version of the story that reported the poll result, in fact, was titled "Plebiscite boycott fails to seduce the masses." The main finding of the poll, according to its authors, was off by 49%.
Aug 18, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
El tuit que se señala aquí parece ser mendaz y erróneo, pero no "rompe el brutómetro." Es mendaz porque busca desinformar. Es erróneo porque la variante Delta originó antes que las vacunas. No rompe el brutómetro porque este tema no tiene nada de obvio. Por lo que he leído sobre el tema, la evolución del virus responde a dos factores:

1. Mientras más contagios, más oportunidades tiene el virus de mutar;

2. Llamadas "presiones selectivas," i.e., la competencia entre distintas variantes por contagiar a más gente que la otras.
Aug 18, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
The new line on the 2019 Bolivia coup is it wasn't a coup but there were "irregularities," like, you know, the police and military coerced the resignations of legislative leadership and blocked MAS legislators from the quorum-less session where Áñez illegally seized power. Image theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…