@Project2049 @globaltaiwan | Former @AEI | China. Taiwan. Japan. Korea. SE Asia. Dog dad. People dad, too. Spy balloon appreciator.
Feb 7, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD | "It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s . . . a balloon?" In my latest for @nypost, I argue that the Biden administration and Congress should not let this moment go to waste. nypost.com/2023/02/06/the…
Great powers constantly spy on each other in all manner of creative and wily ways. But it’s not every day that an American looks up into the sky and literally sees a foreign adversary staring right back.
Aug 18, 2022 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
THREAD. The @QuincyInst's @EliClifton has a whopper of an op-ed in @Newsweek today. Let's take a little journey, shall we?
The United States could not make "commitments" to the "One China policy" in 1972 because it did not yet exist--at least not by that name. Now, arguably, a form of the 1CP had existed since 1949, as the US never had formal diplomatic relations with both Beijing and Taipei.
Mar 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I’m not sure that play is available to China and even if it is, I’m not sure Xi assesses the consequences similarly—and not because he’s not smart. He might assess that:
(1) The trajectories of Western approaches to China will not be reversed by one good deed. The scales have fallen from the eyes of many, and Xi knows it. Why take a risk when the payoff may not amount to much? And playing peacemaker would be risky…
Feb 16, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
🧵My @AEIfdp colleague @osmastro and @ElbridgeColby had a thought-provoking op-ed in the @WSJ earlier this week. I share their views on the importance of Taiwan. I think some critical readings of their pieces have been unfair. But I do have some critiques. wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
First, I find their conclusion questionable: "The Chinese can’t be allowed to think that America’s distraction in Ukraine provides them with a window of opportunity to invade Taiwan. The U.S. needs to act accordingly, crisis or not."
Oct 14, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
SHORT THREAD. This is a great thread from @C_M_Dougherty about what a Taiwan Strait conflict might look like and the Army's role therein. But I have a quibble.
My quibble is with this tweet in particular. IMO, whether a war is short, sharp, and relatively limited or China goes big and hard and broad, this will be a war to define the future of Asia.
THREAD.@RepElaineLuria writes today for the @washingtonpost, arguing that "it is time to untie the hands of our president so that he can, in fact, carry through with the 'rock solid' commitment to Taiwan if actions by China require it." There is precedent for this. 1/x
Following Zhou Enlai's Aug 1954 assertion that Taiwan must be "liberated," the PLA began shelling Jinmen. Fighting eventually spread to Quemoy and Matsu that fall. As the risk of war grew, the US & the ROC finished negotiating their mutual defense treaty, signed on 12/2/54. 2/x
Sep 17, 2021 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
THREAD. Ok, folks. Sit back & strap in. Let's take a ride through history as we explore the US position on Taiwan's status, shall we? (Note: as inspiring as I may find @pptsapper's work, I've yet to have lunch, so this history will be entirely sober. Please accept my apologies.)
Our first stop: May 8, 1895. On that day, the Treaty of Shimonoseki, which ended the Sino-Japanese War, comes into force. In the treaty, China ceded "Formosa" (among other things) to Japan. Stick a pin in this; we'll be back.
Sep 16, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Sigh. I have a lot of writing to do today. But should I do a thread on the history of the US position on Taiwan's status?
So I did end up writing (and arguing on Twitter). Maybe tomorrow!
Apr 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Not a conducive work environment
But it’s not all bad
Apr 1, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Why is the US commitment to Taiwan "rock-solid" and why must it remain so? I explain in the latest Indo-Pacific Perspectives roundtable from the Air Force's Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs @journalofindopacific @aupress 1/x
Link here: media.defense.gov/2021/Mar/31/20… 2/x
Jan 27, 2021 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
In my latest for @globaltaiwan, I tackle @mikepompeo's controversial nullification of the Taiwan contact guidelines. There are two contexts in which to assess the decision, which lead to dueling assessments of the policy move. Join me on my journey. aei.org/articles/asses…
Context 1: Pompeo has future political ambitions. He never fully subscribed to the view that, as chief diplomat, he should refrain from engaging in domestic politics. He showed disregard for traditional strictures on the secretary of state's conduct and comportment.
