Trying to do my part in keeping Earth's orbital environment clean and safe.
Astroscale CTO. Thoughts/opinions my own. he/him.
Oct 19, 2020 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Another thread about sat collision probability 🛰️💥🛰️
This time let's talk about regulations, as the FCC has just solicited input about how to regulate collision risk
As we know, risk can be computed as = 1-(1-Pc)^N
where Pc = each sat's collision probability and N = # of sats
Now, you don't have to be a math expert to know which variable is most important in that equation. Yep, the exponent!
Say you've been offered X^Y dollars, where each variable is between 1-9 and you get to choose one of them. You'd choose Y every time! Who cares what X is? 💵💰💵
Jul 3, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A thread about satellite collision probability 🛰️💥🛰️
The FCC & others consider "satellites equipped with propulsion capability to have a collision risk of zero or near zero."
So let's ask ourselves: is that a reasonable assumption?
docs.fcc.gov/public/attachm… (see paragraph 20)
Well, if met with a collision risk (Pc) of 1/1000, an operator might avoid it with a maneuver (they don't have to), thus buying the risk down to 1/1,000,000.
But if Pc is initially 1/100,000, the operator likely won't maneuver at all! That's not zero risk, but is it "near zero?"
