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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) Profile picture
郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)
@mingchikuo
天風國際證券分析師，分享科技產業趨勢觀察與預測｜TF International Securities analyst. Sharing observations and predictions of tech industry trends.
3 subscribers
Feb 27, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
(1/10)
[Update] Apple has restarted the iPhone SE 4 and will adopt an in-house 5G baseband chip. The significant decline in Qualcomm's Apple orders in the foreseeable future is a foregone conclusion. (2/10)
1. My latest survey indicates that Apple has recently restarted the iPhone SE 4, which will feature an OLED display instead of an LCD, as the biggest change. Overall, the SE 4 is a minor modification of the 6.1-inch iPhone 14.
Feb 17, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
(1/11)
我的調查與這則新聞一致，補充幾點：

bit.ly/3IvK2u0 (2/11)
1. 聯詠在iPhone供應鏈長期優勢，除自身技術開發能力外，還包括生產面與客戶端。
2. 生產端方面，因聯詠與聯電合作關係緊密，有利聯詠快速提升iPhone DDI良率並降低成本。LX Semicon目前是iPhone第二DDI供應商且將部份訂單下在聯電。同樣都是與聯電合作生產，聯詠優勢將優於LX Semicon。
Jan 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
(1/5)
我的最新調查顯示，鴻騰精密 (FIT) (鴻海集團子公司) 可能將取代歌爾，成為AirPods新組裝廠商並因此顯著受惠。下一代AirPods機種預計將在2H24或1H25大量出貨，包括低價版AirPods (Apple的目標是定價在99美元) 以及新款AirPods Max，組裝廠商包括立訊與鴻騰。 (2/5)
AirPods組裝與鴻海的電動車事業/MIH聯盟預期將是鴻騰未來數年的雙強勁成長驅動。
Jan 11, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
(1/5)
Cirrus Logic is the primary winner for canceling physical buttons and the change to adopt solid-state buttons on the 2H23 high-end iPhone 15 models. (2/5)
My latest survey indicates that high-end iPhone 15 models will feature solid-state buttons and will equip with additional Taptic Engines to simulate the feel of physical buttons' force feedback.
Jan 11, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
(1/1)
Samsung Display (SDC) 計劃在2023年將筆記型電腦的OLED面板出貨量顯著提升，目標是在2023年成長70% YoY至6-700萬部，中光電因是SDC獨家玻璃切割、偏光片貼合與IC打線接合獨家供應商，故為出貨顯著增長的主要受益者。 (2/6)
與Mini-LED相較，筆記型電腦採用OLED有輕薄與多樣化設計 (如：折疊) 的優勢，故Apple最快在2024年底前也將推出OLED MacBook。預期在Apple的推動下，未來數年OLED筆記型電腦的成長速度可望保持高速增長。
Dec 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
(1/5)
My latest survey indicates that Apple will likely cancel or postpone the mass production plan for the 2024 iPhone SE 4. I think this is due to the consistently lower-than-expected shipments of mid-to-low-end iPhones (e.g., SE 3, 13 mini, and 14 Plus), (2/5)
as well as concerns that the full-screen design of the SE 4 will lead to an increase in higher costs/selling prices. As a result, Apple may need to reconsider the product positioning and return on investment for the SE 4.
Dec 4, 2022 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
(1/8)
AR/VR頭戴是光學產業下一個關鍵成長驅動已是市場共識，市場之前預期2Q23大量出貨的Apple MR頭戴裝置是光學產業的淡季亮點，故該產品出貨時間遞延可能不利近期光學產業市場情緒。Apple MR頭戴主要光學供應商包括大立光 (鏡頭)、玉晶光 (Pancake)、高偉電子 (相機模組)、致伸 (眼球追蹤模組) 等。 (2/8)
我最新的調查指出，Apple MR頭戴裝置的大量出貨時程，因為軟體相關議題可能會遞延到2H23 (vs. 先前預估的2Q23)。零組件大量出貨時程可能依舊是1H23/2Q23，但因終端產品的大量出貨時程推遲，故2023年Apple MR頭戴裝置的出貨預估可能將低於50萬部，低於市場共識的80-120萬部。
Nov 17, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
(1/7)
2H23新款高階iPhone的有線傳輸速度可能將顯著提升，有利高速傳輸IC設計產業成長，Apple的既有供應商 (如：譜瑞、祥碩、創惟、Renesas等) 可望為領先受益者。 (2/7)
我最新調查指出，所有2H23新款iPhone均捨棄Lighting並改為USB-C，但，僅兩款高階iPhone 15 (15 Pro & 15 Pro Max) 配備有線高速傳輸規格，兩款標準版iPhone 15 (15 & 15 Plus) 有線傳輸速度規格仍與Lightning相同 (USB 2.0)。
Oct 30, 2022 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
(1/9)
The latest survey & comment on the COVID-19 lockdown impact on the Foxconn Zhengzhou iPhone plants (2/9)
1. Foxconn originally planned to gradually reduce iPhone production capacity from Nov-Dec to cope with the seasonality. After the Zhengzhou iPhone plants entered closed-loop production, the plan to reduce iPhone production capacity will postpone.
Oct 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
(1/6)
My latest survey indicates that the volume button and power button of two high-end iPhone 15/2H23 new iPhone models may adopt a solid-state button design (similar to the home button design of iPhone 7/8/SE2 & 3) to replace the physical/mechanical button design. (2/6)
There will be Taptic Engines located on the internal left and right sides to provide force feedback to make users feel like they are pressing physical buttons.
Oct 11, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
(1/6)
Apple's global supply chain management strategy continues to change in response to the de-globalization trend, mainly to reduce the assembly business in China. Here are the latest major survey updates. (2/6)
1. According to Apple's plan, the Indian company Tata Group may cooperate with Pegatron or Wistron in the future to develop the iPhone assembly business. More than 80% of the iPhones made in India (by Foxconn) are currently to meet domestic demand.
Sep 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
(1/6)
Rumored Apple ditching iPhone production increase sounds a little bit weird to me. As I surveyed before, Apple had production switch plans from iPhone 14/14 Plus to iPhone 14 Pro/14 Pro Max/price-cut 13, but I didn't hear of any overall iPhone production increase plan. (2/6)
I reiterate my survey result that shipment forecasts of iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max will increase by about 10%, benefiting the iPhone ASP/product mix for 4Q22.

The demand for iPhone 14 and 14 Plus is obviously lackluster.
Jul 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
(1/4)
My take for the rumored TSMC's iPhone 14 orders cut by 10%.

1. Rumored TSMC's iPhone 14 orders cut by 10% is not aligned with my survey. I currently maintain my 2H22 shipment forecast for iPhone 14, about 100 mn and 90 mn units for components and EMS, respectively. (2/4)
2. Apple's slight adjustments for iPhone shipment forecasts (single-digit increase/decrease) are common, including new models before mass production.
Jun 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
(1/4)
The demand for iPhone 14 in the Chinese market may be stronger than that of the iPhone 13 from the viewpoints of distributors/retailers/scalpers. (2/4)
My latest survey indicates that some Chinese distributors/retailers/scalpers have to pay the highest prepaid deposit ever for iPhone 14 to ensure a sufficient supply, implying the iPhone 14 demand in the Chinese market will likely be higher than expected.
Jun 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
(1/4)
[Company Update] Qualcomm (QCOM.O)

My latest survey indicates that Apple's own iPhone 5G modem chip development may have failed, so Qualcomm will remain exclusive supplier for 5G chips of 2H23 new iPhones, with a 100% supply share (vs. company's previous estimate of 20%). (2/4)
My take:
1. Qualcomm's revenue and EPS in 2H23-1H24 will likely beat market consensus thanks to its sole supplier position for 5G chips of 2H23 new iPhones as Apple fails to replace Qualcomm.
Jun 3, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
(1/6)
A Korean media reported in late May that LG Innotek's shipment schedule for iPhone front camera had started earlier from 2H23 iPhone 15 to 2H22 iPhone 14 due to a Chinese maker's quality problems recently. Many media quoted this report in the past two weeks. (2/6)
However, this report is not entirely consistent with my understanding.
1. If LG Innotek became iPhone 14 front camera supplier in 2Q22, it would be almost impossible to catch up with the development schedule for 2H22 iPhone 14.
May 30, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
(1/5)
My latest supply chain check suggests that the assembler and several component providers of PS VR2 will start mass production with about 1.5M units shipments in 2H22. Sony may launch it in 1Q23, depending on the development schedule of PS VR2 game titles. (2/5)
I believe PS VR2 will have a good start thanks to the support of 20+ game titles from first- & third-party at launch. Sony's position & resources in the game industry can accelerate AAA VR game development (e.g., Horizon Call of the Mountain), benefiting the VR growth.
May 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
(1/4)
According to TSMC's public announcements & the roadmap (source: tinyurl.com/2nvtulox):
1. Significantly better N3 & N4P won't start mass production until 2023.
2. N5P & N4 are the latest technologies Apple can use for 2H22 products.
3. N4 has no advantages vs. N5P. (2/4)
A15 is made by TSMC N5P. Because N4 has no advantages vs. N5P, it's reasonable for A16 to stick with the N5P, implying that improvements in performance and power-saving from A16 should be limited. Naming iPhone 14 Pro's chip as A16 is more of a marketing purpose.
May 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
(1/4)
1. AirPods Pro 2 will enter mass production in Vietnam in 2H22, a successful case of mass production of Apple's major products outside China.

wsj.com/articles/apple… @WSJ (2/4)
2. The shift of AirPods Pro 2 production can be attributed to the relatively not complicated supply chain and Vietnam's better production environment (such as infrastructure and workforce) vs. most countries outside China.