Quick notes on the latest Arroyo-related brouhaha. 1. The lay of the land for the ruling coalition's interesting in that neither the prexy nor veep have pocket parties of consequence: the expected stampede was into a party in coalition, but not specifically led by the prexy. Essentially, GMA has been credited with: 1. being instrumental in the coalition that brought Duterte victory; 2. negotiating the 2022 tandem that accomplished first successful succession since 1992. The dilemma of the third wheel, politically.

@lucindomino There are two factors missing in your review. First what replaced parties for many reasons was national media, a process that began in 1955 with the abolition of bloc voting which was the basic building block of the national senate scheme. The erosion dated that far back. What… @lucindomino disguised it was changing of the rules in 1987 abandoning the 8 at a time to make it 12 at a time at the instigation of premartial law losers who wanted a chance post martial law (incidentally abandoning making the senate a continuing body and also as surveys since have revealed

(thread) The real question we have to ask in remembering #ML50 is less how did Marcos manage to get away with it, but rather, how did so many who knew what was coming, fail to stop it? The timeline reveals to us it was like a trainwreck in slow motion. philippinediaryproject.com/2021/08/27/a-t… I have my own theories from reading up and listening to those who were active then. My theory is it took 1962-76 he actually did it in a lot of stages. What Makoy had going for him: every institution that could resist had cells of Marcos minded people. In media, Doroy Valencia...

#ML50 What was happening 50 years ago today. September 23, 1972 the real date of martial law. From the comprehensive timeline available in the #PhilippineDiaryProject: philippinediaryproject.com/2021/08/27/a-t… (part 1) #ML50 What was happening 50 years ago today. September 23, 1972 the real date of martial law. From the comprehensive timeline available in the #PhilippineDiaryProject: philippinediaryproject.com/2021/08/27/a-t… (part 2)

#ML50 Interviewed by the late Cynthia Sycip, the late Teodoro M. Locsin recounted his arrest early in the morning of September 23, 1972: #ML50 Interviewed by the late Cynthia Sycip, the late Chino Roces reflected on his arrest on September 23, 1972:

#ML50 What was happening 50 years ago today. September 22, 1972 was a truly eventful day when martial law began to be implemented. From the comprehensive timeline available in the #PhilippineDiaryProject: philippinediaryproject.com/2021/08/27/a-t… (part 1) #ML50 What was happening 50 years ago today. September 22, 1972 was a truly eventful day when martial law began to be implemented. From the comprehensive timeline available in the #PhilippineDiaryProject: philippinediaryproject.com/2021/08/27/a-t… (part 2)

Makes for interesting listening together with some additional things, a thread. So here's an interesting thing to watch and listen to.

https://twitter.com/guanzoned/status/1572249750430425089

I myself have a theory that the march was itself one that had its origins during the Japanese Occupation.

https://twitter.com/mlq3/status/1526784561723904001?s=20&t=otmR-1dsgTCZWRJ67gdlwQ

Personally I do consider the 1935 Constitution the best one we've ever had. One thing that went for it: Marcos had to mount a self-coup and invent "people's assemblies" to get around it and junk it to make way for a constitution he wrote for himself.

https://twitter.com/sherieanntorres/status/1572431262975135745

Consider this: Congress had to be complicit, by accepting his bribe for its members to be automatic members of the Interim National Assembly his 1973 Constitution would create. The Constitutional Convention delegates had to be complicit, by accepting seats in the Interim Assembly

Just finished my talk for Cebu's Press Freedom Week. It was livestreamed here: facebook.com/cebucaritascci… #ML50 My talk's entitled "Always revise," which I think, as hopefully we'll see, is a good and necessary thing.

#ML50 What was happening 50 years ago today, September 21, 1972. From the comprehensive timeline available in the #PhilippineDiaryProject: philippinediaryproject.com/2021/08/27/a-t… Conclusion, what was happeniong 50 years ago today, September 21, 1972: philippinediaryproject.com/2021/08/27/a-t…

Initial thoughts on the first weeks of the Marcos Restoration. Having achieved its goal now comes the hard part: and in terms of one of the basics, a working Cabinet one of the first tests of executive ability, there are major gaps which is unprecedented. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a… There are actually two other things worth looking into. There was obviously an awareness of the Marcoses looking for signs of being taken seriously and countries interested acted accordingly. Australia sent its GovGen; China, a high official; the USA, half-baked. But new admin…

malacanang.gov.ph where the repositories of the Presidential Museum and Library were, is gone. Anyway here are links. The Official Gazette is no longer the government portal but incorporated into the main government site. Documents are untouched. What follows are features/briefers that might be deleted in the future. 1. Declaration of Martial Law officialgazette.gov.ph/featured/decla…

I'm in the process of writing, but I thought you might as well try what I am doing. Below I will link to two playlists. One is Robredo music, the other, Marcos music. The two playlists reveal the profound differences in the two constituencies. A short thread! Here is the Robredo music playlist. Pay attention to chronology (when the songs begin), repetition, variety, and how the big burst of creativity came near the end. youtube.com/playlist?list=…

Areglado na ang kilay! GMA proves the wise one is she who backs away lives to fight another day.

https://twitter.com/PTVph/status/1525276311220285440?s=20&t=iGNNvVJeXnN83uEudnEcQA

So this leaves the Party List Bloc finding itself with nothing to decide.

https://twitter.com/mlq3/status/1525267369006104576?s=20&t=iGNNvVJeXnN83uEudnEcQA

Been asked: fearless forecast? Instead for forecasting per se, let's identify the trends we see to see how they could develop. We see it already. A shallow bench, as assembling a Cabinet is taking painfully slow (up to now no announced national security or economic teams)... an aggressive though uncouth junior partner in the coalition that strongly believes it made victory possible, forcing the setting aside of even token ethical behavior (Romualdez edging out GMA out of necessity to keep House impeachment-proof), no real ties to military, or cops...

Thanksgiving. The reasons the Marcos supporters are celebrating less and attacking more are three.

First: 1 in 4 Filipinos defied peer pressure not just by voting, but going out and about to demonstrate, in rallies, against the soon-to-be ruling coalition. "Laban" was reborn. Second: The people who stood up, self-organized. In a way Katipuneros would have recognized: in small cells. By their self-identified stans. They rallied around someone worth following, but also, found strength in each other. Whatever happens to the top, they have each other.

The TGIF it's the night before the Miting de Avance which is the night before the night before Election Day supermegamaxithread, so let's try to settle our nerves by having a Big Think thread. Let me start with two paintings I've been thinking about.... The first is "Nero's Torches" an 1876 painting by the Polish artist Henryk Siemiradzki. This is the Coalition that enjoys all the traditional advantages, that believes it is born to rule, made of those who believe they are the apex predators and have it all figured it out...

The first season of #ProyektoPilipino has now drawn to a close. It's been an exciting and fulfilling effort to bring civics to a new generation in a crucial election season. I hope you will catch its two flavors: the main video show, and the companion podcast that goes deeper. Our penultimate topic was on faith and politics. Here is episode 12 of #ProyektoPilipino as broadcast on cable and available on YouTube: quezon.ph/2022/04/29/pro…

@giancantdance You granted victory to those who spent thirty years between mother and son camouflaging *their* campaign to keep things the same, behind a cloud of insisting it was mother and son who were doing do: when what they did was hold the line for modernity. The potential of what the… @giancantdance Fifth Republic could be, beyond them, could thus never even approach to be realized because of this multi-decade and multi-front effort. So this only proves how successful because insidious and sly, that effort has been. In damning with faint praise you have vindicated those who

A thread on political earthquakes, which starts with what sooner or later depends on the character and personality of candidates. You know which of these two candidates actually likes the Filipino people. If you didn’t before, it’s become quite clear by now. Which leads to… This thread by Bart: and it’s true, the songs are just part of a phenomenon of not just expression and innovation but of political renewal. These songs and pictures and even hashtags all come from the public and in many ways have overwhelmed “official” efforts. Consider that even

https://twitter.com/guingonabart/status/1501928108991348739

Will the surveys reveal a March surprise? Some analysts seem to think so: but there's more to it. A thread. In a recrnt blog entry, I put together a roundup on surveys and what they tell us (and don't necessarily tell us). quezon.ph/2022/03/07/sur… A sample of a more traditional way of looking at the survey numbers is demonstrated by a recent column by Andrew Marasigan: philstar.com/opinion/2022/0…