New national NBC News poll: A double-digit rise in popularity and an early edge in better representing 'change' have vaulted Harris forward to a 5pt lead over Trump, 49% to 44%.

This is our first poll since mid-July, when Trump led Biden by 2pts, 45% to 43% What especially stands out in the poll is Harris' 16-point rise in favorability since July, when she was still Biden's running mate.

It's the biggest jump in popularity for any major-party presidential candidate in the 35-yr history of the NBC News poll.

Headlines from new national NBC News poll.

1. Election interest is at an all-time for a midterm, with 70% of reg. voters expressing high interest (was 65% in Oct 2018)

But Republicans have regained the enthusiasm edge -- with 78% of GOPers having high interest vs. 69% of Dems 2. Political polarization is off the charts.

81% of Democratic voters and 79% of Republican voters believe the political opposition poses a threat that, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it.

The headlines from our national NBC/Telemundo Latino poll:

1. Democrats hold a 21pt lead in congressional preference among Latino voters (54%-33%).

But that advantage is down from past cycles, including 10 yrs ago when NBC/Telemundo had Democrats at +42 2. President Biden's approval rating with Latino voters is 51% approve, 45% disapprove

Biden issue handling:

-Foreign policy: 49% approve, 44% disapprove
-Border security immigration: 42%-51%
-Economy: 41%-54%
-Cost of living: 35%-60%

Headlines from new national NBC News poll...

1. Clear majority of registered voters believe the investigations into alleged wrongdoing by Trump should continue:

Yes, investigations should continue: 57%

No, should stop: 40%

(Aug 12-16, +/- 3.1%) 2. The NBC News poll finds Biden's job rating at 42% and congressional preference at R+2

Biden approval among reg voters: 42% (was 42% among RVs in May, 39% among adults)

Cong preference: 47% of voters want GOP to control Congress, 45% want Dems in control (was 46%-46% in May)

Results from new national NBC News poll:

Abortion should be... (among adults)

Always legal: 37%
Legal most of time: 23%
Illegal, with exceptions: 32%
Illegal without any exceptions: 5%

The combined 60% answering legal is highest percentage on this question dating back to '03 More from the new NBC News poll:

Should Roe v. Wade be overturned?

Yes: 30% (was 23% in 2018)
No: 63% (was 71% in 2018)

New national NBC News poll

Biden overall job rating among adults:

Approve: 40% (-3 from Jan. 2022)
Disapprove: 55% (+1)

March 18-22, +/- 3.1% Biden on the issues, per the new NBC News poll...

Covid handling
Approve: 51% (+7 from Jan 2022)
Disapprove: 46% (-7)

Economic handling
Approve: 33% (-8)
Disapprove: 63% (+3)

Foreign policy handling
Approve: 42% (+5)
Disapprove: 51% (-3)

NBC News poll on nation's mood (among adults)

Right track: 22%
Wrong track: 72%

Income falling behind cost of living: 61%
Staying even: 30%
Going up: 7%

Polarization will only grow: 70%
Country can come together: 27%

Yes, threat to democracy is real: 76%
No, not real: 21% All the politicians and political parties the NBC poll tested...

- Liz Cheney: 23% fav, 29% unfav (-6)
- Biden: 39% fav, 48% unfav (-9)
- GOP: 34% fav, 44% unfav (-10)
- Trump: 37% fav, 51% unfav (-14)
- Dem Party: 33% fav, 48% unfav (-15)
- VP Harris: 32% fav, 49% unfav (-17)

Results from new national NBC News poll:

- Biden job approval among all adults: 49% (was 53% in April)

- Biden disapproval: 48% (was 39%)

- Biden approval among reg voters: 50% (was 51% in April)

- Biden disapproval: 48% (was 43%)

Aug 14-17, +/- 3.1% Approval of Biden's handling of the coronavirus among adults: 53% (was 69% in April)

Approval of Biden's handling of economy: 47% (was 52%)

Approval of Biden's handling of Afghanistan: 25% (N/A)

Final pre-election national NBC/WSJ poll among registered voters:

Biden 52%
Trump 42%

Oct 29-31, +/- 3.1%

Was Biden 53%, Trump 42% two weeks ago Also in the new NBC/WSJ poll:

-- Trump job rating: 45% approve, 52% disapprove (was 44%-54% two weeks ago)

-- Trump fav/unfav: 43%-52% (-9)

-- Biden fav/unfav: 45%-42% (+3)

NBC/Marist poll of NC (among likely voters):

Biden 52%
Trump 46%

Oct 25-28, +/- 4.7%

Among registered voters, it's Biden 51%, Trump 46% In the other NC races, the NBC/Marist poll has it among likely voters:

NC-SEN
Cunningham D 53%
Tillis R 43%

NC-GOV
Cooper D 59%
Forest R 40%

Headlines from new NBC/WSJ poll (conducted after the debate, 9/30-10/1)

1. Biden's national lead among registered voters expands from 8pts to 14pts

Biden 53%
Trump 39%

Was Biden 51%, Trump 43% in Sept poll before debate 2. Voters, by a 2-1 margin, say Biden did a better job at the debate

Biden better 49%
Trump better 24%
Neither better 17%

Takeaways from NBC News/Marist polls of MI & WI

1. Majorities of likely voters say 2020 winner should get to fill SCOTUS vacancy

Winner should fill vacancy
MI 54%, WI 56%

Trump should fill vacancy immediately
MI 35%, WI 37%

Trump should fill after election
MI 7%, WI 5% 2. Biden leads Trump in both battleground states among likely voters

MI
Biden 52%, Trump 44% (Among RVs, Biden 52%, Trump 43%)

WI
Biden 54%, Trump 44% (Among RVs, Biden 52%, Trump 44%)

The major findings of our new national NBC News/WSJ poll:

1. Biden maintains his national lead over Trump.

Biden 51% (+1 since Aug)
Trump 43% (+2 since Aug)

Sept 13-16, +/- 3.1%, registered voters 2. The poll was conducted before Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death on Sept. 18, but it identifies only 11% of voters as being up for grabs, with nearly 90% having firmly made up their minds already

New NBC News/Marist poll of Florida:

Biden 48%
Trump 48%

Aug 31-Sept 6 of 766 likely voters, +/- 4.5%

(This is our first 2020 poll of FL) The big story inside this Trump-Biden tie is that Biden is underperforming among Latinos (vs. Hillary Clinton four years ago), while Trump is underperforming among seniors.

There are quite a few programming and speaking similarities b/w this 2020 Dem convention and the one four years ago: Bernie and Michelle Obama speaking on Monday; Bill Clinton going Tuesday.

But I'm not sure we've reflected the biggest difference -- beyond 2020's virtual nature 1. That 2016 Dem convention in Philly was rocked by the WikiLeaks disclosures of the hacked DNC emails that led to the resignation of the DNC chair.

(Hello, Russian interference.)

Major storylines from our new national NBC/WSJ poll before the conventions begin on Monday:

1. Biden leads the national horserace by 9pts among reg voters -- down from 11pts in July

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 41% (+1)

Aug 9-12, +/- 3.3% 2. More than 60% of voters say the U.S. response to the coronavirus has been unsuccessful

Very successful 8%
Somewhat successful 28%
Somewhat unsuccessful 22%
Very unsuccessful 39%
Not sure 3%

If you sow the wind, you reap the whirlwind, as the Old Testament puts it.

And right now, Trump is reaping the whirlwind -- including what happened yesterday nbcnews.com/politics/meet-… That trip to St. John’s Church to hold up the Bible? A public-relations disaster and an infringement on Americans' 1st Amendment rights

New NBC News/Marist poll of Arizona shows Biden ahead by 5 pts among registered voters in the state

Biden 50%
Trump 45%

(Was Biden 47%, Trump 46% in March)

July 14-22 of 826 RVs, +/- 4.1 Arizona voters on who would do a better job handling...

The coronavirus: Biden 48%, Trump 37%
Race relations: Biden 53%, Trump 33%
The economy: Trump 55%, Biden 35%

The major headlines from our new NBC News/Wall Street poll:

1. Biden leads Trump nationally by 11pts among registered voters

Biden 51%
Trump 40%

(Was Biden 49%, Trump 42% last month) 2. Trump's ratings are down

Overall approval: 42%-56% (was 45%-53% last month)
Coronavirus handling: 37%-59% (was 43%-55%)
Race relations handling: 33%-63%

Good news for Trump: His economic handling is 54% approve, 42% disapprove

Trump yesterday questioned why he trails Fauci’s popularity.

The answer becomes pretty obvious when you look at their different statements and actions from yesterday.

This morning's @MTPFirstRead: nbcnews.com/politics/meet-… @MTPFirstRead 1. On Tuesday, Trump was downplaying the coronavirus, saying that the only reason cases are up is b/c testing is up (but that doesn't explain the hospitalizations).

Fauci, by contrast, sounded the alarm: “It’s a serious situation," he told Congress.

The headlines from the new national NBC/WSJ poll:

1. 8-in-10 American voters believe things are out of control in the nation

Do you feel that things in the country are ...?

Under control: 15%
Out of control: 80% 2. By 2-to-1 margin, voters are more concerned about George Floyd's death/police actions than they are the protests that have sometimes turned violent

What concerns you more?

Actions of police/death of George Floyd: 59%
Protests that have sometimes become violent: 27%