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Rollover Mitchell Profile picture
Rollover Mitchell
@mnahmanson
I do research on the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, issuance & liquidity.
Jan 29 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
@GordonJohnson19 1/ Let’s stress-test Tesla cash flow under a realistic bearish scenario

Assumptions:
• Vehicle sales keep falling at 2025 rate (~-7%)
• Model S/X discontinued
• Margins keep declining
• CapEx = $20B
• Regulatory credits fall to $100M
What happens to cash flow? @GordonJohnson19 2/ 2025 baseline (approx):
Revenue: ~$95B
Operating CF: ~$13B
Free CF: ~$6–7B
Auto margin: ~18%
Reg credits: ~$1.4B
CapEx: ~$9B
Already a much weaker Tesla than 2022–23.
Sep 29, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
US Treasury bills issuance was up $16,266,796,700 this week from last at $410,007,108,80, the most since June 2020 when the Fed was doing QE to infinity. Image Treasury is still sticking with the strategy of more Bills to finance their increasing obligations. Image
Sep 21, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
US Treasury bill issuance was down from last week -$2,169,214,600, Image Total Interest on US Debt is about $150 billion more than last year. Image